2108 AFC South Preview
I kind of can't believe that I got this thing out tonight. My parents came to visit this weekend, a buddy had a surprise 50th birthday party Saturday, and Sunday was a perfect sunny day to grill and procrastinate on this all-important blog post.
And here is how I do family time and keep up on this blog. While two generations of family play Monopoly in my home, I read the Athlon Sports 2018 NFL Preview. Get off my back...we were in the same room!
Houston Texans
Everyone remembers Deshaun Watson being fabulous last year, which he was, but the Texans were only 3-3 in the games he started before he went down with a torn ACL. So maybe the fact that Houston finished 4-12 overall proves how great Watson might be, or how bad the Texans were. After three straight nine win seasons with two playoff appearances, last year was a big disappointment in Houston.
Watson has been getting repetitions at camp and played in their preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs in their 17-10 victory Thursday night. A healthy Watson is a major plus for this team. Houston has decent running backs in Lamar Miller, D'Onta Foreman, and Alfred Blue, and elite receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Matt Weston of BattleRedBlog.com says the Texans had the worst offensive line in the NFL last year, and major changes are expected along the front line.
Defensive end J.J. Watt has been the NFL Defensive Player of the Year three times, but has started in only eight games in the last two years. The two other projected defensive line starters, DE Christian Covington and NT D.J. Reader, finished the season on the injured last year, too. Houston was the 24th ranked pass defense, which is not good, so they grabbed CB Aaron Colvin and S Tyrann Mathieu in free agency to help. Linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are excellent, but about the only assured bright spots.
ESPN FPI: -0.3/8.4 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The sun has probably set on the excellence of J.J. Watt, but is only rising on the Deshaun Watson experience. If his knee is healthy, Houston will be much better than a four-win team. The rest of his teammates are too injury prone to get this team to the playoffs though.
Indianapolis Colts
Guess who else was without their franchise quarterback last year and was only able to post four wins. Yup, my Indianapolis Colts, except the Colts were able to be this bad with many fewer injuries than the Texans. They were legitimately awful. The only fun I derived from their season last year was reading my Indy buddies' scathing game day text messages, and fantasizing about how and when coach Chuck Pagano was going to be fired. I hoped Pagano would get the Joe Pesci Goodfellas treatment, but they took it easy on him.
Franchise QB Andrew Luck is back after almost two years removed from throwing a professional pass, and reports from training camp are that he is looking really good. Second-year RB Marlon Mack will be the main ball carrier, but there is no way he will match the 961 yards churned out by RB Frank Gore, who has departed for Miami. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton seems to have a connection with Luck, and TE Jack Doyle amassed an incredible 80 receptions last year catching pass from now backup QB Jacoby Brissett. The offensive line was awful last year, but General Manager Chris Ballard is counting on the return of C Ryan Clark and the inclusion of 1st round draft pick OG Quenton Nelson from Notre Dame (who embodies a relentless pursuit to improve everyday according to George Bremer of Anderson, Indiana's Herald Bulletin) to stiffen the Colt backbone in the trenches.
The Colts defense was terrible last year. Look at the roster and see if a name jumps out at you...waiting, waiting, see -- told ya. They ranked 30th in yards per game, 31st in sacks, and 30th in points per game at 25.2. Safety Malik Hooker looked like a quality, up-and-coming defender before he was lost to injury, and Indy grabbed three defenders before the end of the 2nd round of the draft this year, South Carolina State OLB Darius Leonard, Rutgers DE Kemoko Turay, and Ohio State DE Tyquan Lewis. Hopefully, new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus can make some chicken salad out of so many chicken droppings.
ESPN FPI: -3.4/6.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 wins
I knew this team was bad last year. I love this team, but I absolutely stopped paying any attention to them before Halloween. The defense is awful, but the offensive line could be excellent and we already know that Andrew Luck is the type of QB that can drastically alter the fortunes of a franchise. They are not good enough to make the playoffs, but I have this feeling that Luck teamed with new head coach Frank Reich are going to out-perform projections. Yell, scream, go hoarse...Colts, Colts, Colts!!!
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year I predicted the Jaguars would most likely finish in the distant last place in the AFC South. Boy, was I wrong. Their season didn't end until they lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. After that over achievement, I was thinking it is time for a regression, but then I did some research.
I am not positive, but pretty sure I have been derogatory of Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles more than I have been complimentary. He was 11th in passing yards and 12th in the ESPN Total Quarterback Rating last year. That is not Hall of Fame worthy, but is well above what I thought he could muster. Leonard Fournette crested 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie, to make up for a star-less receiving corps. I am with Alfie Crow of BigCountry.com, the offensive line is good at pass protection and has made the moves necessary to improve in run blocking.
The defense is what really popped out to me while researching the Jaguars. They were 2nd overall in yards allowed per game last year, and all the key players return except nickel CB Aaron Colvin. The defensive line is so good that former 3rd overall pick DE Dante Fowler is a substitute, because DL Calais Campbell and DE Yannick Ngakoue wake up and sack quarterbacks before they brush their teeth. Linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith are top notch, and now 7th round pick LB Leon Jacobs out of Wisconsin looks like an impressive addition, according to Kathy Clark of BlackandTeal.com. If you don't think the secondary is good, just ask CB Jalen Ramsey.
ESPN FPI: +1.1/8.5 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 9.0 wins
I am a Hoosier and clearly not a MassHole so I was pulling for the Jaguars in the AFC Championship game last year. Still, I didn't think they were that good; maybe a little lucky, a little hot. Executive vice president Tom Coughlin has steadied a shaky ship, Bortles has matured, and this defense is filled with executioners. The playoffs are almost a certainty for Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans
What do you do with a coach that takes a 13th ranked defense and 23rd ranked offense and gets them into the playoffs? What if that same coach takes the same team into the playoffs and they actually win a game? Well, you fire him, of course. Coach Mike Mularkey had this mediocre franchise trending up, but he is out and Mike Vrabel is the new head coach. It will be interesting to see how this team responds.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota is not spectacular, but Joe Rexrode of the The Nashville Tennessean reports he is respected throughout the Titans locker room. Running back Derrick Henry has the pedigree, but not the production for this running game. Receivers Corey Davis and Tajae Sharpe have high ceilings, but to date, low production levels. If one these guys breaks out, opposing defenses have a serious problem. All of this mediocrity at the skill positions gets a boost from a terrific offensive line led by tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.
Inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard led the team in tackles last year, and will pace this year's defense. Fellow ILB Avery Williamson was second in tackles, but left during free agency. Tennessee grabbed Alabama ILB Rashad Evans in the first round to plug that gaping hole, and signed CB Malcolm Butler away from the Patriots to bolster the secondary. Defensive linemen Jurell Casey leads a defensive line that contributed to the fifth most sacks in the NFL last year, according to the Tennessean's Jason Wolf.
ESPN FPI: -0.4/8.2 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.0 wins
The Jaguars return and excellent defense, the Colts return an excellent QB, and their is excellence all over the Texans roster ready to get healthy and return. There isn't anything excellent in Nashville. This team is decent and will play 0.500 football, but they will be done after Week 16.
And here is how I do family time and keep up on this blog. While two generations of family play Monopoly in my home, I read the Athlon Sports 2018 NFL Preview. Get off my back...we were in the same room!
Houston Texans
Everyone remembers Deshaun Watson being fabulous last year, which he was, but the Texans were only 3-3 in the games he started before he went down with a torn ACL. So maybe the fact that Houston finished 4-12 overall proves how great Watson might be, or how bad the Texans were. After three straight nine win seasons with two playoff appearances, last year was a big disappointment in Houston.
Watson has been getting repetitions at camp and played in their preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs in their 17-10 victory Thursday night. A healthy Watson is a major plus for this team. Houston has decent running backs in Lamar Miller, D'Onta Foreman, and Alfred Blue, and elite receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Matt Weston of BattleRedBlog.com says the Texans had the worst offensive line in the NFL last year, and major changes are expected along the front line.
Defensive end J.J. Watt has been the NFL Defensive Player of the Year three times, but has started in only eight games in the last two years. The two other projected defensive line starters, DE Christian Covington and NT D.J. Reader, finished the season on the injured last year, too. Houston was the 24th ranked pass defense, which is not good, so they grabbed CB Aaron Colvin and S Tyrann Mathieu in free agency to help. Linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are excellent, but about the only assured bright spots.
ESPN FPI: -0.3/8.4 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The sun has probably set on the excellence of J.J. Watt, but is only rising on the Deshaun Watson experience. If his knee is healthy, Houston will be much better than a four-win team. The rest of his teammates are too injury prone to get this team to the playoffs though.
Indianapolis Colts
Guess who else was without their franchise quarterback last year and was only able to post four wins. Yup, my Indianapolis Colts, except the Colts were able to be this bad with many fewer injuries than the Texans. They were legitimately awful. The only fun I derived from their season last year was reading my Indy buddies' scathing game day text messages, and fantasizing about how and when coach Chuck Pagano was going to be fired. I hoped Pagano would get the Joe Pesci Goodfellas treatment, but they took it easy on him.
Robert DeNiro from 2:40-2:54 in this video is me tracking the Colts on Sundays in 2017.
Franchise QB Andrew Luck is back after almost two years removed from throwing a professional pass, and reports from training camp are that he is looking really good. Second-year RB Marlon Mack will be the main ball carrier, but there is no way he will match the 961 yards churned out by RB Frank Gore, who has departed for Miami. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton seems to have a connection with Luck, and TE Jack Doyle amassed an incredible 80 receptions last year catching pass from now backup QB Jacoby Brissett. The offensive line was awful last year, but General Manager Chris Ballard is counting on the return of C Ryan Clark and the inclusion of 1st round draft pick OG Quenton Nelson from Notre Dame (who embodies a relentless pursuit to improve everyday according to George Bremer of Anderson, Indiana's Herald Bulletin) to stiffen the Colt backbone in the trenches.
The Colts defense was terrible last year. Look at the roster and see if a name jumps out at you...waiting, waiting, see -- told ya. They ranked 30th in yards per game, 31st in sacks, and 30th in points per game at 25.2. Safety Malik Hooker looked like a quality, up-and-coming defender before he was lost to injury, and Indy grabbed three defenders before the end of the 2nd round of the draft this year, South Carolina State OLB Darius Leonard, Rutgers DE Kemoko Turay, and Ohio State DE Tyquan Lewis. Hopefully, new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus can make some chicken salad out of so many chicken droppings.
ESPN FPI: -3.4/6.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 wins
I knew this team was bad last year. I love this team, but I absolutely stopped paying any attention to them before Halloween. The defense is awful, but the offensive line could be excellent and we already know that Andrew Luck is the type of QB that can drastically alter the fortunes of a franchise. They are not good enough to make the playoffs, but I have this feeling that Luck teamed with new head coach Frank Reich are going to out-perform projections. Yell, scream, go hoarse...Colts, Colts, Colts!!!
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year I predicted the Jaguars would most likely finish in the distant last place in the AFC South. Boy, was I wrong. Their season didn't end until they lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. After that over achievement, I was thinking it is time for a regression, but then I did some research.
I am not positive, but pretty sure I have been derogatory of Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles more than I have been complimentary. He was 11th in passing yards and 12th in the ESPN Total Quarterback Rating last year. That is not Hall of Fame worthy, but is well above what I thought he could muster. Leonard Fournette crested 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie, to make up for a star-less receiving corps. I am with Alfie Crow of BigCountry.com, the offensive line is good at pass protection and has made the moves necessary to improve in run blocking.
The defense is what really popped out to me while researching the Jaguars. They were 2nd overall in yards allowed per game last year, and all the key players return except nickel CB Aaron Colvin. The defensive line is so good that former 3rd overall pick DE Dante Fowler is a substitute, because DL Calais Campbell and DE Yannick Ngakoue wake up and sack quarterbacks before they brush their teeth. Linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith are top notch, and now 7th round pick LB Leon Jacobs out of Wisconsin looks like an impressive addition, according to Kathy Clark of BlackandTeal.com. If you don't think the secondary is good, just ask CB Jalen Ramsey.
ESPN FPI: +1.1/8.5 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 9.0 wins
I am a Hoosier and clearly not a MassHole so I was pulling for the Jaguars in the AFC Championship game last year. Still, I didn't think they were that good; maybe a little lucky, a little hot. Executive vice president Tom Coughlin has steadied a shaky ship, Bortles has matured, and this defense is filled with executioners. The playoffs are almost a certainty for Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans
What do you do with a coach that takes a 13th ranked defense and 23rd ranked offense and gets them into the playoffs? What if that same coach takes the same team into the playoffs and they actually win a game? Well, you fire him, of course. Coach Mike Mularkey had this mediocre franchise trending up, but he is out and Mike Vrabel is the new head coach. It will be interesting to see how this team responds.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota is not spectacular, but Joe Rexrode of the The Nashville Tennessean reports he is respected throughout the Titans locker room. Running back Derrick Henry has the pedigree, but not the production for this running game. Receivers Corey Davis and Tajae Sharpe have high ceilings, but to date, low production levels. If one these guys breaks out, opposing defenses have a serious problem. All of this mediocrity at the skill positions gets a boost from a terrific offensive line led by tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.
Inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard led the team in tackles last year, and will pace this year's defense. Fellow ILB Avery Williamson was second in tackles, but left during free agency. Tennessee grabbed Alabama ILB Rashad Evans in the first round to plug that gaping hole, and signed CB Malcolm Butler away from the Patriots to bolster the secondary. Defensive linemen Jurell Casey leads a defensive line that contributed to the fifth most sacks in the NFL last year, according to the Tennessean's Jason Wolf.
ESPN FPI: -0.4/8.2 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.0 wins
The Jaguars return and excellent defense, the Colts return an excellent QB, and their is excellence all over the Texans roster ready to get healthy and return. There isn't anything excellent in Nashville. This team is decent and will play 0.500 football, but they will be done after Week 16.
Comments
Post a Comment