2018 AFC East Preview
I have been telling you that August is a baseball month, and my Cincinnati Reds came to the District for a four-game series this week. They have lost two of the first three, but they still have a chance to get a split with a win today. I was able to attend the Saturday night Washington Nationals victory with some old Army friends -- one of which I hadn't seen in 10 years.
Years ago I spent some long, hot, and intense days with all three of the guys who attended the game with me. I didn't necessarily love some of the work we did together, but I am incredibly grateful for those days and those guys. I am also incredibly grateful that we now can share our time at baseball games with seemingly endless laughter.
I bet you are like me and grateful that football is on the horizon. Let's get to it!
Just like last year, my buddy Dan Head and I are working together on NFL Divisional Previews -- he covers the NFC beat, and I provide the AFC perspective. Dan just posted his NFC East preview Thursday. When you go to Dan's blog, you should consider spending a little time reading some of his memoir...seriously.
Last year I told you the New England Patriots would win the division, the Miami Dolphins would regress, the Buffalo Bills would once again miss the playoffs, and the New York Jets fan would watch a lot of losing. I was correct on three of four. Congratulations to the Bills for proving me wrong.
But come on! I will hold myself to a standard. It has been easy to pick the Patriots to be AFC East champions the last two decades.
My goals this year -- if I have the time to put to the moneyless time suck of writing a blog for dozens of old friends -- I will specify playoff teams (from both conferences) after Dan and I complete our division previews. Standby, there just might be a fifth week of our NFL preview this year.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo did make the playoffs last year, but they got a little lucky and a lot of help. The Bills had the 29th ranked offense and 25th ranked defense. They were outscored by 57 points, the fifth worst point differential for a playoff team in NFL history, according to Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports. Those are not stats generally attached to playoff teams.
The Bills brought in former Cincinnati Bengals backup quarterback A.J. McCarron to be the starter and bridge to first round draft pick Josh Allen from Wyoming. McCarron could be an improvement, and the Buffalo brain trust believes Allen will be elite, but neither will be much good behind a rebuilding offensive line and throwing to a crew of unremarkable receivers. The Sporting News Kirstie Chiappelli tells us all-world RB LeSean McCoy is in camp, but this offense will go in the toilet if his domestic activities get him suspended at any point this year, which is not out of the question.
During the offseason, Buffalo added DT Star Lotulelei, DE Troy Murphy, and CB Vontae Davis which adds a run stopper, pass rusher, and elite corner, respectively. The Bills also used four of their top five draft picks on defenders. Of those draft picks, ILB Virginia Tech ILB Tremaine Edmunds looks to be something special, according to Nick Wojton of BillsWire.com. Put all these additions with a defensive backfield that grabbed 14 interceptions (team tied for 6th overall with 18) last year, and we might be seeing a defensive Kracken coming out of Lake Erie.
Years ago I spent some long, hot, and intense days with all three of the guys who attended the game with me. I didn't necessarily love some of the work we did together, but I am incredibly grateful for those days and those guys. I am also incredibly grateful that we now can share our time at baseball games with seemingly endless laughter.
I bet you are like me and grateful that football is on the horizon. Let's get to it!
We kind of had a decent time at the ballpark Saturday night.
Just like last year, my buddy Dan Head and I are working together on NFL Divisional Previews -- he covers the NFC beat, and I provide the AFC perspective. Dan just posted his NFC East preview Thursday. When you go to Dan's blog, you should consider spending a little time reading some of his memoir...seriously.
Last year I told you the New England Patriots would win the division, the Miami Dolphins would regress, the Buffalo Bills would once again miss the playoffs, and the New York Jets fan would watch a lot of losing. I was correct on three of four. Congratulations to the Bills for proving me wrong.
But come on! I will hold myself to a standard. It has been easy to pick the Patriots to be AFC East champions the last two decades.
My goals this year -- if I have the time to put to the moneyless time suck of writing a blog for dozens of old friends -- I will specify playoff teams (from both conferences) after Dan and I complete our division previews. Standby, there just might be a fifth week of our NFL preview this year.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo did make the playoffs last year, but they got a little lucky and a lot of help. The Bills had the 29th ranked offense and 25th ranked defense. They were outscored by 57 points, the fifth worst point differential for a playoff team in NFL history, according to Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports. Those are not stats generally attached to playoff teams.
How much help did Buffalo get last year? Go to about 6:50 in this little video. Watch the whole thing when you get a chance. "Red Rocket, Red Rocket, throwing from the pocket!"
The Bills brought in former Cincinnati Bengals backup quarterback A.J. McCarron to be the starter and bridge to first round draft pick Josh Allen from Wyoming. McCarron could be an improvement, and the Buffalo brain trust believes Allen will be elite, but neither will be much good behind a rebuilding offensive line and throwing to a crew of unremarkable receivers. The Sporting News Kirstie Chiappelli tells us all-world RB LeSean McCoy is in camp, but this offense will go in the toilet if his domestic activities get him suspended at any point this year, which is not out of the question.
During the offseason, Buffalo added DT Star Lotulelei, DE Troy Murphy, and CB Vontae Davis which adds a run stopper, pass rusher, and elite corner, respectively. The Bills also used four of their top five draft picks on defenders. Of those draft picks, ILB Virginia Tech ILB Tremaine Edmunds looks to be something special, according to Nick Wojton of BillsWire.com. Put all these additions with a defensive backfield that grabbed 14 interceptions (team tied for 6th overall with 18) last year, and we might be seeing a defensive Kracken coming out of Lake Erie.
ESPN FPI: -3.2; 6.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 wins
Buffalo fans have to be happy with head coach Sean McDermott breaking a 17-season streak of not making the playoffs in his first year, but they need to mentally prepare for not making the playoffs this year. The Bills will play five of their first seven on the road, and then a home Monday night game versus the Patriots. Buffalo may not be mathematically out of the playoffs until December, but they will be playing catchup all year. That being said, this team has stabilized and has a bright future.
Miami Dolphins
I told you Miami would regress last year when I thought QB Ryan Tannehill was going to be playing. He got hurt in the preseason, and then there was no way this team was going to do well. This year will be a little harder to call due to Tannehill's year-long absence.
There is nothing flashy on the offensive side of he ball, but things seem really solid to me. Tannehill is back at QB, and coach Adam Gase has Brock Osweiler as a solid backup. Kenyan Drake ran for 4.8 yards a carry when given a chance last year after Miami traded Jay Ajayi, and now they have added University of Miami graduate Frank Gore to mentor the youngster and lighten the load. While not spectacular, the wide receiver corps is serviceable and deep -- Danny Amendola, Kenny Stills, DaVante Parker. The offensive line will most likely improve, because their position coach won't be snorting coke before meetings.
Note: Do yourself a favor and watch the YouTube video hyperlinked to "snorting coke before meetings" -- please!?!?
The Dolphins defense was ranked 16th last year -- smack dab in the middle of the pack. They have S Reshad Jones who led NFL safeties with 122 tackles, and added former Rams standout DL Robert Quinn. First round draft pick Alabama S Minkah Fitzpatrick projects as a difference maker. No historically excellent defenses were led by two safeties, but David Dwork of CBS Miami is on the ground in Miami and sees a defense that could be excellent.
ESPN FPI: -4.5; 6.3 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 wins
I think both the Bills and Dolphins are well coached. It also looks to me like Buffalo edged Miami in offseason improvements. The Dolphins will be less competitive than the Bills.
New England Patriots
Strange things started happening up in Beantown once the calendar turned to February. Coach Bill Belichick benched Super Bowl XLIX hero CB Malcom Butler for still unspecified reasons, and then the Pats actually lost another Super Bowl. Hall of Famers-to-be QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski hinted about retirement during the offseason. With all of that water churning under the bridge, I still agree with Kenneth Teape of MusketFire.com -- the Patriots are the unquestioned pick to be the AFC East champions (they have won the division every year since 2010).
It boggles the mind that Tom Brady could have led the NFL in passing yards (4,577) in 2017 at 40 years of age, and here he comes at 41 to take another run at a Super Bowl. He got all those yards last year without his best receiver, WR Julian Edelman, who will return this year after serving a four-game performance-enhancing drug use suspension. Hayden Bird of Boston.com says there is uncertainty on who will be the New England running backs since seven are in camp right now, but I feel fairly certain they have plenty of talent there to give opposing defenses nightmares.
The Patriots 28th ranked defense looked anemic when they got torched for 41 points the last time they were on the field in Super Bowl LII. New England was missing possibly their best defender last year in LB Dont'a Hightower and he is all set for the 2018 season. Matt McCarthy of 98.5 The Sports Hub is still concerned about the Patriots defense, but Belichick won't be bad at something -- anything -- two years in a row.
New York Jets
It feels like an absolute certainty that the Jets will have another losing season. Giving it the old Malcolm Gladwell blink process, what are you thinking? Something like six wins, right? Most of the stuff I have read is similar to what Luis Tirado, Jr. of JetPress.com thinks -- New York is effectively rebuilding, but they are still a couple years away from playoff contention.
New York could go 6-10 and still consider the season a success if they get first-round pick QB Sam Darnold on the field and playing effectively. There aren't any flashy skills players here -- they didn't have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver last year. Whoever quarterbacks this team will be hoping for some better offensive line play as the Jets gave up 47 sacks last year, 7th most in the NFL according to Sam Neumann of JetsWire.com.
In every meaningful category, the Jets defense is in the bottom third of the league rankings. New York did grab stand-out CB Trumaine Johnson, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, in the free agent market to boost a decent secondary. Not much help otherwise as they didn't grab a defender in the draft until the third round.
New England Patriots
Strange things started happening up in Beantown once the calendar turned to February. Coach Bill Belichick benched Super Bowl XLIX hero CB Malcom Butler for still unspecified reasons, and then the Pats actually lost another Super Bowl. Hall of Famers-to-be QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski hinted about retirement during the offseason. With all of that water churning under the bridge, I still agree with Kenneth Teape of MusketFire.com -- the Patriots are the unquestioned pick to be the AFC East champions (they have won the division every year since 2010).
It boggles the mind that Tom Brady could have led the NFL in passing yards (4,577) in 2017 at 40 years of age, and here he comes at 41 to take another run at a Super Bowl. He got all those yards last year without his best receiver, WR Julian Edelman, who will return this year after serving a four-game performance-enhancing drug use suspension. Hayden Bird of Boston.com says there is uncertainty on who will be the New England running backs since seven are in camp right now, but I feel fairly certain they have plenty of talent there to give opposing defenses nightmares.
The Patriots 28th ranked defense looked anemic when they got torched for 41 points the last time they were on the field in Super Bowl LII. New England was missing possibly their best defender last year in LB Dont'a Hightower and he is all set for the 2018 season. Matt McCarthy of 98.5 The Sports Hub is still concerned about the Patriots defense, but Belichick won't be bad at something -- anything -- two years in a row.
ESPN FPI: 5.0; 10.5 wins (highest rating by ESPN)
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 11.0 wins (highest rating by Odd Sharks)
With all this grumbling about coach Vader and Brady getting another year older, you would think we have an end to this Evil Empire in sight, right? Their demise is still beyond the horizon of the 2018 season. New England has played in seven straight AFC Championship games (which is freakish) and won four of them. I am not sure if they will win that game this year, but it is a safe bet they are in it.
New York Jets
It feels like an absolute certainty that the Jets will have another losing season. Giving it the old Malcolm Gladwell blink process, what are you thinking? Something like six wins, right? Most of the stuff I have read is similar to what Luis Tirado, Jr. of JetPress.com thinks -- New York is effectively rebuilding, but they are still a couple years away from playoff contention.
New York could go 6-10 and still consider the season a success if they get first-round pick QB Sam Darnold on the field and playing effectively. There aren't any flashy skills players here -- they didn't have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver last year. Whoever quarterbacks this team will be hoping for some better offensive line play as the Jets gave up 47 sacks last year, 7th most in the NFL according to Sam Neumann of JetsWire.com.
In every meaningful category, the Jets defense is in the bottom third of the league rankings. New York did grab stand-out CB Trumaine Johnson, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, in the free agent market to boost a decent secondary. Not much help otherwise as they didn't grab a defender in the draft until the third round.
ESPN FPI: -5.3; 6.1 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.0 wins
If Sam Darnold starts the last eight games and the Jets go 6-10, that would be success for this team. Winning six games would be better than what New York has accomplished three of the last four years. Man, there just isn't much here to get exited about.
You are WAY higher on the Bills than I am. I am not a fan of Josh Allen's, and I don't trust the supposed plan they have in place to get him ready, either.
ReplyDeleteI don't love the Pats, really, but they probably win the division. How could they not? I also think that the Dolphins might surprise. But what do I know?
You are WAY higher on the Bills than I am. I am not a fan of Josh Allen's, and I don't trust the supposed plan they have in place to get him ready, either.
ReplyDeleteI don't love the Pats, really, but they probably win the division. How could they not? I also think that the Dolphins might surprise. But what do I know?