2018 AFC West Preview
This is the final of an eight-part series of NFL divisional previews.
My friend and classmate Dan Head came up with the idea of splitting NFL divisional previews last year, and it was well-received. By "well received," I mean no bricks were thrown through my living room window as a result of the previews. We have made it through seven of eight previews without backlash this year, and I am feeling pretty good that my low bar for success will be cleared again this year.
Dan penned the previews for all of the NFC divisions:
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
I have covered the AFC beat:
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
The AFC West was a tough one for me to pick last year. I figured the Oakland Raiders would win the division (wrong), the Kansas City Chiefs would play in January (correct), the Los Angeles Chargers would make the playoffs (wrong, but not by much), and the Denver Broncos would just get edged out of the playoffs by the Chargers (correct). That is decent, but I know you all expect more from me.
Say you are being held hostage by a crazy man with a gun, and the only thing that will save your life is predicting NFL games correctly. You haven't been paying attention or studying in-depth, but your life is over if you don't accurately pick the winners of a few games. How do you do it?
Simple, focus on quarterbacks and coaches. Football is an intricate and complex sport so simplify the math as much as you can. Quarterbacks and coaches have the most influence on the game. And if you don't know anything about coaches, you can predict an entire season on QBs alone.
Twelve of the last 15 Super Bowls have been won by dudes named Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Brees -- all great quarterbacks. Yeah, occasionally a turd like Flacco or Foles winds up in the punch bowl, but a good Super Bowl beverage includes a star passer much more often than not. Through that lens...let's check out the AFC West.
Denver Broncos
I thought the Broncos would compete for a playoff spot last year, but they weren't even close. Hall of Fame QB and general manager of the Broncos John Elway thinks he now has the quarterback, in former-Viking Case Keenum, to get this team back to the playoffs.
There is no doubt Keenum is an improvement over the three slack-jawed muldoons that played QB for the Broncos last year, Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch. But can Keenum, at 30 years of age, duplicate his best, and only, good season of his seven-year career? Help will come from receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who torched the Washington Rednecks in the third preseason game Friday night according to Kyle Fredrickson of the Denver Post. The offensive line was bad last year, and they cut 1,000 yard rusher C.J. Anderson, leaving the running game to unproven, but talented RB Devontae Booker.
The Broncos defense was the 3rd best in the league in the standard yards/game measurement, but 24th in points allowed, which matters more. Denver does have one of the best pass rushers in DE Von Miller, and they drafted another edge rusher in N.C. State DE Bradley Chubb in the first round. Tim Lynch of the MileHighReport.com says these guys are already having fun together. Linebackers Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis were the top two leading tacklers last year and return for another go. The defensive backfield spearheaded by CB Chris Harris is not flashy, but well above average.
ESPN FPI: -2.6 points/6.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7 wins
Keenum has to be an improvement under center to go along with some pretty talented skill players. The defense has been good for years, but the biggest stars, LB Von Miller, NT Domata Peko, and CB Chris Harris, are getting up in years. Not feeling all that high on the team from Mile High -- there will be no playoffs for the Broncos this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
If anybody can turn a mediocre QB into something well above serviceable, it is Kansas City coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs have a great coach and an unproven quarterback. So where does that put them?
Como se dice en Ingles "a ton of offensive talent?" I think you pronounce it "Kansas City Chiefs." Running back Kareem Hunt, WR Tyreek Hill, and TE Travis Kelce all gained more than 1,000 yards. According to Travis Steffen of KCKingdom.com, the offensive line is a middle of the pack unit with solid players. It will be up to second-year man QB Pat Mahomes to take over for the now-Redskin Alex Smith, and take this talented offensive team to the playoffs for the fourth straight season.
The Chiefs had the 28th rated defense last year. Just to make sure...there are only 32 teams in the NFL, so 28th best is pretty bad. By trading Smith to Washington, Kansas City was able to pick up CB Kendall Fuller. Ehh, OK, you don't build a defense around a slot CB though. Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star says, undrafted rookie LB Ben Niemann is doing well in preseason and might be able to help out this awful defense. They will need players like Niemann to be that good and more, because this defense must improve.
ESPN FPI: +1.4 points/8.6 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The Chiefs showed out last year. Good job. Head coach Andy Reid is top notch, and he thinks Mahomes can be a franchise QB. If his assessment is correct, this team is in the playoffs...a few years down the road. Mahomes may eventually be a playoff-caliber QB, but he won't be in his very first year under center.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are a team that challenge the method of predicting a team's success based on QB alone. Los Angeles signal caller Phillip Rivers is one of the best and most consistent in the game, but they have only made the playoffs once in the last eight years. You would think this team is due for a playoff run.
Rivers was second in total passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns last year. Receiver Keenan Allen is a legitimate weapon, and TE Hunter Henry is trending up as the replacement to future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates. Running back Melvin Gordon finally figured it out last year and rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Los Angeles also added three-time All Pro C Mike Pouncey to the offensive line and he is looking to lead a physical unit that goes hard on every snap, according to Jeff Miller of the Los Angeles Times.
While the offense is going to be good, the Charger defense might be even more fun to watch. Bookend DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram terrorized opposing QBs and combined for 23 sacks last year. Los Angeles was excellent defending the pass last year, but Kyle Williams of ChargersWire.com says the talented CBs Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams have both had to deal with injuries during training camp. Help is on the way though as the Chargers used their first four draft picks on defenders, including Florida State S Derwin James in the first round.
ESPN FPI: +1.7 points/8.7 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 9.5 wins
The Chargers were talented enough to make the playoffs last year, but couldn't overcome their 0-4 start to the year. They are more talented than last year, coach Anthony Lynn has an important year of experience, and the three other teams in the division have regressed.
Oakland Raiders
Raider DE Khalil Mack led the team with 10.5 sacks last year, is as legitimate game-changing defender, and hasn't spent one single minute at training camp. Mack is holding out for a pay raise, but the Raiders front office hasn't flinched yet. The second Jon Gruden era in Oakland is going to be hamstrung if they don't get their best defensive player on the field, but Marcus Mosher of RaidersWire.com thinks Mack will join the team sometime in September.
Quarterback Derek Carr was elite two years ago, but middling at best last year. Gruden is supposedly a QB guru so we must assume Carr gets back on track this year. Oakland signed WR Jordy Nelson to compliment WR Amari Cooper -- both are capable of 90-catch, 1,000-yard seasons. Marshawn Lynch is getting up in years at a brutal position, but he still managed 4.3 yards/carry last year and has Oakland-native Doug Martin backing him up. Elite skill players only go as far as the offensive line allows them and Dieter Kurtenbach of the Sacramento Bee thinks it is legitimate to worry about the Raider big fellas up front.
The Oakland defense was definitely below average last year at 22nd in yards/game, but even worse against the pass at 25th overall. To help with that pass defense, they dumped CBs David Amerson and T.J. Carrie, and picked up CBs Rashaan Melvin and Daryl Worley from the Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers, respectively. Free safety Reggie Nelson led the team, along with LB NaVorro Bowman, in tackles last year. When a safety leads a team in tackles, that means there are about seven players in front of him that can't tackle. This defense needs Mack on the field.
ESPN FPI: -0.3 points/7.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8 wins
This Khalil Mack holdout smells of overall organizational dysfunction. This defense was bad last year, and I don't see the moves needed for improvement. This is not a playoff team, but hey, coach Gruden will be entertaining at a minimum.
Send a salami to your boy in the Army!
The HOTPO marketing analytics staff noticed a significant spike in readership with last week's post. They determined it was driven by our inclusion of my parents in the AFC South preview. That reminded me that I started this blog not just talk about sports, but as an attempt to combine multiple communities.
I wanted to facilitate conversation about sports between my Colt-fan buddies from high school and people like my Cowboy fan buddy (bless his heart) from the 82nd Airborne Division. I wanted to mix my military community with my family and neighborhood communities. I thought that would be kind of rewarding.
So, our HOTPO staff launched the Loyal Readers Rewards Program in November of last year. Turns out, I have been the one rewarded by the dozens of loyal readers. And...I might not have brought communities together (yet), but I have deepened my relationships with multiple people from multiple communities through this project.
A quick shout out to one loyal reader. My wife's A unt Kathy Murphy from NYC doesn't know a whole heck of a lot about sports, so far as I know. She is a big fan of the HOTPO staff, and understands that the bucolic Sowers (0.25) Acres is nothing but good family, good friends, good food, and good fun. She repays the little bit I have ever given her with always reading and complimenting my writing.
And she gives the most thoughtful presents. Check out the Katz Deli t-shirt and HOTPO cocktails napkins we recently received at our headquarters along the Potomac from Aunt Kathy. So, if you want to be a loyal reader and get rewarded, we will get you down to the headquarters along the Potomac to pour you a cool IPA from the Colts tap and serve it on a HOTPO napkin. Just tell me when.
Keep watching sports. Keep DOING sports. Keep reading this blog. I really think we are all making progress here.
My friend and classmate Dan Head came up with the idea of splitting NFL divisional previews last year, and it was well-received. By "well received," I mean no bricks were thrown through my living room window as a result of the previews. We have made it through seven of eight previews without backlash this year, and I am feeling pretty good that my low bar for success will be cleared again this year.
Dan penned the previews for all of the NFC divisions:
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
I have covered the AFC beat:
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
The AFC West was a tough one for me to pick last year. I figured the Oakland Raiders would win the division (wrong), the Kansas City Chiefs would play in January (correct), the Los Angeles Chargers would make the playoffs (wrong, but not by much), and the Denver Broncos would just get edged out of the playoffs by the Chargers (correct). That is decent, but I know you all expect more from me.
Say you are being held hostage by a crazy man with a gun, and the only thing that will save your life is predicting NFL games correctly. You haven't been paying attention or studying in-depth, but your life is over if you don't accurately pick the winners of a few games. How do you do it?
Simple, focus on quarterbacks and coaches. Football is an intricate and complex sport so simplify the math as much as you can. Quarterbacks and coaches have the most influence on the game. And if you don't know anything about coaches, you can predict an entire season on QBs alone.
Twelve of the last 15 Super Bowls have been won by dudes named Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Brees -- all great quarterbacks. Yeah, occasionally a turd like Flacco or Foles winds up in the punch bowl, but a good Super Bowl beverage includes a star passer much more often than not. Through that lens...let's check out the AFC West.
Denver Broncos
I thought the Broncos would compete for a playoff spot last year, but they weren't even close. Hall of Fame QB and general manager of the Broncos John Elway thinks he now has the quarterback, in former-Viking Case Keenum, to get this team back to the playoffs.
There is no doubt Keenum is an improvement over the three slack-jawed muldoons that played QB for the Broncos last year, Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch. But can Keenum, at 30 years of age, duplicate his best, and only, good season of his seven-year career? Help will come from receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who torched the Washington Rednecks in the third preseason game Friday night according to Kyle Fredrickson of the Denver Post. The offensive line was bad last year, and they cut 1,000 yard rusher C.J. Anderson, leaving the running game to unproven, but talented RB Devontae Booker.
The Broncos defense was the 3rd best in the league in the standard yards/game measurement, but 24th in points allowed, which matters more. Denver does have one of the best pass rushers in DE Von Miller, and they drafted another edge rusher in N.C. State DE Bradley Chubb in the first round. Tim Lynch of the MileHighReport.com says these guys are already having fun together. Linebackers Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis were the top two leading tacklers last year and return for another go. The defensive backfield spearheaded by CB Chris Harris is not flashy, but well above average.
ESPN FPI: -2.6 points/6.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7 wins
Keenum has to be an improvement under center to go along with some pretty talented skill players. The defense has been good for years, but the biggest stars, LB Von Miller, NT Domata Peko, and CB Chris Harris, are getting up in years. Not feeling all that high on the team from Mile High -- there will be no playoffs for the Broncos this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
If anybody can turn a mediocre QB into something well above serviceable, it is Kansas City coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs have a great coach and an unproven quarterback. So where does that put them?
Como se dice en Ingles "a ton of offensive talent?" I think you pronounce it "Kansas City Chiefs." Running back Kareem Hunt, WR Tyreek Hill, and TE Travis Kelce all gained more than 1,000 yards. According to Travis Steffen of KCKingdom.com, the offensive line is a middle of the pack unit with solid players. It will be up to second-year man QB Pat Mahomes to take over for the now-Redskin Alex Smith, and take this talented offensive team to the playoffs for the fourth straight season.
The Chiefs had the 28th rated defense last year. Just to make sure...there are only 32 teams in the NFL, so 28th best is pretty bad. By trading Smith to Washington, Kansas City was able to pick up CB Kendall Fuller. Ehh, OK, you don't build a defense around a slot CB though. Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star says, undrafted rookie LB Ben Niemann is doing well in preseason and might be able to help out this awful defense. They will need players like Niemann to be that good and more, because this defense must improve.
ESPN FPI: +1.4 points/8.6 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The Chiefs showed out last year. Good job. Head coach Andy Reid is top notch, and he thinks Mahomes can be a franchise QB. If his assessment is correct, this team is in the playoffs...a few years down the road. Mahomes may eventually be a playoff-caliber QB, but he won't be in his very first year under center.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are a team that challenge the method of predicting a team's success based on QB alone. Los Angeles signal caller Phillip Rivers is one of the best and most consistent in the game, but they have only made the playoffs once in the last eight years. You would think this team is due for a playoff run.
Rivers was second in total passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns last year. Receiver Keenan Allen is a legitimate weapon, and TE Hunter Henry is trending up as the replacement to future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates. Running back Melvin Gordon finally figured it out last year and rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Los Angeles also added three-time All Pro C Mike Pouncey to the offensive line and he is looking to lead a physical unit that goes hard on every snap, according to Jeff Miller of the Los Angeles Times.
While the offense is going to be good, the Charger defense might be even more fun to watch. Bookend DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram terrorized opposing QBs and combined for 23 sacks last year. Los Angeles was excellent defending the pass last year, but Kyle Williams of ChargersWire.com says the talented CBs Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams have both had to deal with injuries during training camp. Help is on the way though as the Chargers used their first four draft picks on defenders, including Florida State S Derwin James in the first round.
ESPN FPI: +1.7 points/8.7 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 9.5 wins
The Chargers were talented enough to make the playoffs last year, but couldn't overcome their 0-4 start to the year. They are more talented than last year, coach Anthony Lynn has an important year of experience, and the three other teams in the division have regressed.
Oakland Raiders
Raider DE Khalil Mack led the team with 10.5 sacks last year, is as legitimate game-changing defender, and hasn't spent one single minute at training camp. Mack is holding out for a pay raise, but the Raiders front office hasn't flinched yet. The second Jon Gruden era in Oakland is going to be hamstrung if they don't get their best defensive player on the field, but Marcus Mosher of RaidersWire.com thinks Mack will join the team sometime in September.
Quarterback Derek Carr was elite two years ago, but middling at best last year. Gruden is supposedly a QB guru so we must assume Carr gets back on track this year. Oakland signed WR Jordy Nelson to compliment WR Amari Cooper -- both are capable of 90-catch, 1,000-yard seasons. Marshawn Lynch is getting up in years at a brutal position, but he still managed 4.3 yards/carry last year and has Oakland-native Doug Martin backing him up. Elite skill players only go as far as the offensive line allows them and Dieter Kurtenbach of the Sacramento Bee thinks it is legitimate to worry about the Raider big fellas up front.
The Oakland defense was definitely below average last year at 22nd in yards/game, but even worse against the pass at 25th overall. To help with that pass defense, they dumped CBs David Amerson and T.J. Carrie, and picked up CBs Rashaan Melvin and Daryl Worley from the Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers, respectively. Free safety Reggie Nelson led the team, along with LB NaVorro Bowman, in tackles last year. When a safety leads a team in tackles, that means there are about seven players in front of him that can't tackle. This defense needs Mack on the field.
ESPN FPI: -0.3 points/7.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8 wins
This Khalil Mack holdout smells of overall organizational dysfunction. This defense was bad last year, and I don't see the moves needed for improvement. This is not a playoff team, but hey, coach Gruden will be entertaining at a minimum.
Send a salami to your boy in the Army!
The HOTPO marketing analytics staff noticed a significant spike in readership with last week's post. They determined it was driven by our inclusion of my parents in the AFC South preview. That reminded me that I started this blog not just talk about sports, but as an attempt to combine multiple communities.
I wanted to facilitate conversation about sports between my Colt-fan buddies from high school and people like my Cowboy fan buddy (bless his heart) from the 82nd Airborne Division. I wanted to mix my military community with my family and neighborhood communities. I thought that would be kind of rewarding.
So, our HOTPO staff launched the Loyal Readers Rewards Program in November of last year. Turns out, I have been the one rewarded by the dozens of loyal readers. And...I might not have brought communities together (yet), but I have deepened my relationships with multiple people from multiple communities through this project.
A quick shout out to one loyal reader. My wife's A unt Kathy Murphy from NYC doesn't know a whole heck of a lot about sports, so far as I know. She is a big fan of the HOTPO staff, and understands that the bucolic Sowers (0.25) Acres is nothing but good family, good friends, good food, and good fun. She repays the little bit I have ever given her with always reading and complimenting my writing.
And she gives the most thoughtful presents. Check out the Katz Deli t-shirt and HOTPO cocktails napkins we recently received at our headquarters along the Potomac from Aunt Kathy. So, if you want to be a loyal reader and get rewarded, we will get you down to the headquarters along the Potomac to pour you a cool IPA from the Colts tap and serve it on a HOTPO napkin. Just tell me when.
Keep watching sports. Keep DOING sports. Keep reading this blog. I really think we are all making progress here.
The Chargers are a perennially frustrating team. Rivers is so good, but then the team left San Diego.
ReplyDeleteMeh. They’re dead to me.