2018 AFC North Preview
How many days until the NFL season begins? This countdown clock says there are 24 days until the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Atlanta Falcons Thursday, Sept. 6 for the first NFL game of the year.
To prepare for the upcoming season, I have been working with a couple of my classmates to properly sample a few sports bars along the Potomac to ensure we have appropriate knowledge of the terrain before the season begins. This past week we sampled Joe Theisman's on King Street in Alexandria. Previously, we ate dinner at the Crystal City Sports Pub.
Crystal City Sports Pub is currently the "leader in the clubhouse," but we do have time to hit some more. It is going to be hard to beat CCSP with its bus trips to Redskins home games and a Sunday brunch that opens at 8:30 a.m. on football Sundays. The HOTPO staff is open to recommendations for future samplings.
This week is your second division preview from me covering the AFC. My friend and classmate Dan Head covered the NFC North for the second of his NFC division previews on his blog earlier this week. Last week, I covered the AFC East and Dan covered the NFC East.
Baltimore Ravens
Ozzie Newsome has been the Ravens general manager since they began playing in Baltimore in 1996, and he is stepping aside after this year. Coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco both showed up in 2008, won a Super Bowl after the 2012 season, and have been the dictionary definition of mediocre since, 40 wins against 40 losses. Both are in danger of being gone next year, as well.
With Baltimore drafting Heisman trophy-winning QB Lamar Jackson out of Louisville, expect Flacco to feel the heat and improve on his 26th ranked quarterback rating from 2017. Joe Schiller of the EbonyBird.com reports a revamped Ravens receiver corps with new arrivals Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead was necessary improvement. Free agent running back Alex Collins out of was a revelation last year when stacked up 973 rushing yards. If the offensive line can gel after losing starting C Ryan Jensen and OT Austin Howard, the 27th ranked Baltimore offense could improve enough to be considered, well, mediocre.
Linebackers Terrell Suggs (team lead in sacks, 11) and C.J. Mosley (team lead in tackles, 132) are two of the best in the game. Cornerback Brandon Carr and S Eric Weddle combined for 10 interceptions as Baltimore led the league in interceptions as a team with 22. Defensive tackles Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce are both 340 pounds and anchor a serviceable line. The Ravens 2016 2nd round pick, LB Kamalei Correa looks like he is shedding his "bust" label this preseason and could add another weapon to a quality defense, according to Kevin Oestreicher of the RavensWire.com.
ESPN FPI: +0.6, 8.4 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.0 wins
There is a good coach here and some pretty good players scattered throughout, but beyond Suggs and Mosley, there is nothing spectacular. This team had a playoff spot all but locked up last year, but they blew it in the season finale (see AFC East Preview, Buffalo Bills). This team will be in the mix until late-December, but will not punch a ticket to the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Marvin Lewis has coached the Bengals for 16 seasons and has the most regular season wins in franchise history. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been in Cincinnati for eight seasons and possesses the best quarterback winning percentage in franchise history. After two straight losing seasons, it is surprising either one is still in Porkopolis. A part of me respects the franchise-owning Brown family for staying loyal, but there is nothing more destructive to a professional sports team than misplaced loyalty.
Cincinnati is revamping their playbook after trotting out the NFL's worst offense last year. Dalton remains the quarterback, WR A.J. Green remains the top aerial target, and a trimmed down Joe Mixon is now the go-to running back. They have plenty of talent at the skills positions, but it was the offensive line that let them down last year. As Patrick Judis reported on CincyJungle.com, refurbishing the putrid offensive line was the big offseason focus as they drafted C Billy Price out of Ohio State and traded for the Bills LT Cordy Glenn.
Much of the Bengals 18th ranked defense stays the same this year, as well. Defensive end Carlos Dunlap and DT Geno Atkins are considered elite by many. Vontaze Burfict leads a linebacker corps that includes 2017 6th round draft pick Jordan Evans, who had a shaky start in his rookie season, finished strong, and is now ready to capitalize on lessons learned, according to Jay Morrison of the Dayton Daily News. The five main defensive backs that contributed to Cincy's 10th best pass defense were all drafted by the Bengals, too. There is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.
ESPN FPI: -2.9, 6.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7.0 wins
Boy, this is a dark horse waiting to happen, or a goat rodeo getting ready to get super-entertaining in a bad way. Expect the Bengals to rebound from two straight losing seasons to post a winning record and stay in the playoff hunt late into the season, like the Ravens.
Cleveland Browns
Winning 11 games in one season almost assuredly gets an NFL team into the playoffs. The Browns have one 11 games total over the last four seasons, and last year they didn't win one single game. Cleveland can't get any worse than 0-16 so I will push all my chips to the center of the table and predict the Browns will improve this year.
In the eight drafts from 2010 to 2017, Cleveland drafted 5 quarterbacks and none of them proved to be a legitimate starter. In 2018, they tried again and drafted Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick, but free agent Tyrod Taylor, formerly of Buffalo, projects as the Week 1 starter. Whoever quarterbacks this team, he will have more weapons than his predecessors as Cleveland traded for Miami Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry, signed San Francisco 49ers RB Carlos Hyde in free agency, and then picked Georgia RB Nick Chubb in the second round of the draft.
Cleveland had the 14th ranked defense last year and should improve upon that decent performance. Defensive lineman Myles Garrett garnered seven sacks as a rookie and should take a step forward in year two. The Browns were weak defending the pass so they brought in three cornerbacks through free agency -- T. J. Carrie, E. J. Gaines, and Terrance Mitchell -- and then used the 4th overall pick in the draft on Ohio State CB Denzel Ward. Linebacker Jamie Collins has his season ended early last year due to a knee injury, but has returned healthy and "shooting for greatness," according to Jeff Schudel of the New-Herald in northeast Ohio.
ESPN: -5.1, 5.7 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 5.5 wins
Coach Hue Jackson is incredibly lucky to still have a job coaching football in Ohio. General manager John Dorsey has slowly compiled some athletic assets along Lake Erie. It is time that Jackson turn those investments into a few wins -- six would be a huge success.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh should have made it to the AFC Championship Game, but they got upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional playoff round. The Steelers have been to the playoffs four straight seasons, but they haven't won a playoff game in any of those trips to the postseason. Pittsburgh had the 4th rated offense and 5th ranked defense last year, and the most important players are returning. This team should a playoff game or two.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returns for his 15th season after throwing for more 4251 yards and 28 TDs last year. Simon Chester of BehindtheStealCurtain.com says RB Le'Veon Bell isn't in training camp, but you can anticipate he will stay in shape, show up before the first game, and run for 1,000 yards this year. Wide receiver Antonio Brown missed two games last year, but still led the league in receiving yards at 1533. When you have those three stars behind an offensive line with three Pro Bowl participants, you get an offense that is extremely hard to contain.
After LB Ryan Shazier went down with a spinal injury last year, Pittsburgh was without big names on defense. Defensive lineman Cameron Heyward recorded 12 sacks last year, and sets the tone for the front seven. Cornerback Joe Haden and S Sean Davis are the leaders in the secondary that produced minimal interceptions. To improve an already good defense, Pittsburgh is focused on creating more turnovers this year according to Joe Rutter of TribLive.com.
ESPN FPI: +4.7, 10.0 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 13 wins
After losing Shazier in Week 12, the Steelers gave up 38, 27, 6, and 24 points during their final four weeks -- they were clearly trending down. Jacksonville then laid 45 on them. Head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Keith Butler are going to fix those late-season defensive ailments and this team is going to be very competitive for a Super Bowl appearance.
To prepare for the upcoming season, I have been working with a couple of my classmates to properly sample a few sports bars along the Potomac to ensure we have appropriate knowledge of the terrain before the season begins. This past week we sampled Joe Theisman's on King Street in Alexandria. Previously, we ate dinner at the Crystal City Sports Pub.
Crystal City Sports Pub is currently the "leader in the clubhouse," but we do have time to hit some more. It is going to be hard to beat CCSP with its bus trips to Redskins home games and a Sunday brunch that opens at 8:30 a.m. on football Sundays. The HOTPO staff is open to recommendations for future samplings.
This week is your second division preview from me covering the AFC. My friend and classmate Dan Head covered the NFC North for the second of his NFC division previews on his blog earlier this week. Last week, I covered the AFC East and Dan covered the NFC East.
Members of the West Point class of 1995 sample sports bar cuisine along the Potomac. The three seated gentlemen are my classmates Ron Ferlazzo, Mike Karwatka, and Dante Brown.
Baltimore Ravens
Ozzie Newsome has been the Ravens general manager since they began playing in Baltimore in 1996, and he is stepping aside after this year. Coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco both showed up in 2008, won a Super Bowl after the 2012 season, and have been the dictionary definition of mediocre since, 40 wins against 40 losses. Both are in danger of being gone next year, as well.
With Baltimore drafting Heisman trophy-winning QB Lamar Jackson out of Louisville, expect Flacco to feel the heat and improve on his 26th ranked quarterback rating from 2017. Joe Schiller of the EbonyBird.com reports a revamped Ravens receiver corps with new arrivals Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead was necessary improvement. Free agent running back Alex Collins out of was a revelation last year when stacked up 973 rushing yards. If the offensive line can gel after losing starting C Ryan Jensen and OT Austin Howard, the 27th ranked Baltimore offense could improve enough to be considered, well, mediocre.
Linebackers Terrell Suggs (team lead in sacks, 11) and C.J. Mosley (team lead in tackles, 132) are two of the best in the game. Cornerback Brandon Carr and S Eric Weddle combined for 10 interceptions as Baltimore led the league in interceptions as a team with 22. Defensive tackles Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce are both 340 pounds and anchor a serviceable line. The Ravens 2016 2nd round pick, LB Kamalei Correa looks like he is shedding his "bust" label this preseason and could add another weapon to a quality defense, according to Kevin Oestreicher of the RavensWire.com.
ESPN FPI: +0.6, 8.4 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.0 wins
There is a good coach here and some pretty good players scattered throughout, but beyond Suggs and Mosley, there is nothing spectacular. This team had a playoff spot all but locked up last year, but they blew it in the season finale (see AFC East Preview, Buffalo Bills). This team will be in the mix until late-December, but will not punch a ticket to the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Marvin Lewis has coached the Bengals for 16 seasons and has the most regular season wins in franchise history. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been in Cincinnati for eight seasons and possesses the best quarterback winning percentage in franchise history. After two straight losing seasons, it is surprising either one is still in Porkopolis. A part of me respects the franchise-owning Brown family for staying loyal, but there is nothing more destructive to a professional sports team than misplaced loyalty.
Cincinnati is revamping their playbook after trotting out the NFL's worst offense last year. Dalton remains the quarterback, WR A.J. Green remains the top aerial target, and a trimmed down Joe Mixon is now the go-to running back. They have plenty of talent at the skills positions, but it was the offensive line that let them down last year. As Patrick Judis reported on CincyJungle.com, refurbishing the putrid offensive line was the big offseason focus as they drafted C Billy Price out of Ohio State and traded for the Bills LT Cordy Glenn.
Much of the Bengals 18th ranked defense stays the same this year, as well. Defensive end Carlos Dunlap and DT Geno Atkins are considered elite by many. Vontaze Burfict leads a linebacker corps that includes 2017 6th round draft pick Jordan Evans, who had a shaky start in his rookie season, finished strong, and is now ready to capitalize on lessons learned, according to Jay Morrison of the Dayton Daily News. The five main defensive backs that contributed to Cincy's 10th best pass defense were all drafted by the Bengals, too. There is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.
ESPN FPI: -2.9, 6.9 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7.0 wins
Boy, this is a dark horse waiting to happen, or a goat rodeo getting ready to get super-entertaining in a bad way. Expect the Bengals to rebound from two straight losing seasons to post a winning record and stay in the playoff hunt late into the season, like the Ravens.
Cleveland Browns
Winning 11 games in one season almost assuredly gets an NFL team into the playoffs. The Browns have one 11 games total over the last four seasons, and last year they didn't win one single game. Cleveland can't get any worse than 0-16 so I will push all my chips to the center of the table and predict the Browns will improve this year.
In the eight drafts from 2010 to 2017, Cleveland drafted 5 quarterbacks and none of them proved to be a legitimate starter. In 2018, they tried again and drafted Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick, but free agent Tyrod Taylor, formerly of Buffalo, projects as the Week 1 starter. Whoever quarterbacks this team, he will have more weapons than his predecessors as Cleveland traded for Miami Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry, signed San Francisco 49ers RB Carlos Hyde in free agency, and then picked Georgia RB Nick Chubb in the second round of the draft.
Cleveland had the 14th ranked defense last year and should improve upon that decent performance. Defensive lineman Myles Garrett garnered seven sacks as a rookie and should take a step forward in year two. The Browns were weak defending the pass so they brought in three cornerbacks through free agency -- T. J. Carrie, E. J. Gaines, and Terrance Mitchell -- and then used the 4th overall pick in the draft on Ohio State CB Denzel Ward. Linebacker Jamie Collins has his season ended early last year due to a knee injury, but has returned healthy and "shooting for greatness," according to Jeff Schudel of the New-Herald in northeast Ohio.
ESPN: -5.1, 5.7 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 5.5 wins
Coach Hue Jackson is incredibly lucky to still have a job coaching football in Ohio. General manager John Dorsey has slowly compiled some athletic assets along Lake Erie. It is time that Jackson turn those investments into a few wins -- six would be a huge success.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh should have made it to the AFC Championship Game, but they got upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional playoff round. The Steelers have been to the playoffs four straight seasons, but they haven't won a playoff game in any of those trips to the postseason. Pittsburgh had the 4th rated offense and 5th ranked defense last year, and the most important players are returning. This team should a playoff game or two.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returns for his 15th season after throwing for more 4251 yards and 28 TDs last year. Simon Chester of BehindtheStealCurtain.com says RB Le'Veon Bell isn't in training camp, but you can anticipate he will stay in shape, show up before the first game, and run for 1,000 yards this year. Wide receiver Antonio Brown missed two games last year, but still led the league in receiving yards at 1533. When you have those three stars behind an offensive line with three Pro Bowl participants, you get an offense that is extremely hard to contain.
After LB Ryan Shazier went down with a spinal injury last year, Pittsburgh was without big names on defense. Defensive lineman Cameron Heyward recorded 12 sacks last year, and sets the tone for the front seven. Cornerback Joe Haden and S Sean Davis are the leaders in the secondary that produced minimal interceptions. To improve an already good defense, Pittsburgh is focused on creating more turnovers this year according to Joe Rutter of TribLive.com.
ESPN FPI: +4.7, 10.0 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 13 wins
After losing Shazier in Week 12, the Steelers gave up 38, 27, 6, and 24 points during their final four weeks -- they were clearly trending down. Jacksonville then laid 45 on them. Head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Keith Butler are going to fix those late-season defensive ailments and this team is going to be very competitive for a Super Bowl appearance.
You say, "The Steelers have been to the playoffs four straight seasons, but they haven't won a playoff game in any of those trips to the postseason" They actually won a WC against the Bengals before falling to the Broncos in 2015, and beat the Dolphins and Chiefs in 2016 before falling to the Pats in the AFC title game. Great piece, thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteThe Browns, Joe. Team of Destiny.
ReplyDelete