AFC South Preview
We are now halfway through the miserable NFL preseason and over halfway through our bi-weekly looks at each division. This post covers the AFC South and is our sixth in an eight-part series.
If you are new to the series, my buddy Dan Head has already covered the East, North and South divisions of the NFC on his blog, Casa Cabeza. I have already covered the East and North divisions of the AFC.
The South has to be the weakest division in the AFC. Whoever makes it to the playoffs out of this division will be substantial underdogs to recent AFC powerhouses, namely New England and Pittsburgh.
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is trending up after a 9-7 season that was a six-win improvement over the previous year. Playing in the weak AFC South lends to such improvements, but this is definitely a team that is on the rise.
Marcus Mariota has healed his broken right fibula and he should continue his upward trajectory toward franchise quarterback status. The offensive line, led by All-Pro RT Jack Conklin and Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan, is terrific. The Titans were the third best rushing offense in the NFL with RBs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry and they improved their weak receiver corps with free agent Erik Decker and Western Michigan draftee Cory Davis.
The Tennessee defense was great against the run (second in NFL) and terrible against the pass (30th) last year. They added free agent NT Sylvester Williams from Denver to help them remain strong against the run. To improve the pass coverage, the Titans signed CB Ryan Logan away from New England and drafted CB Adoree' Jackson out of Southern Cal in the first round.
ESPN FPI: -0.6/8.3 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
Titans fans weathered many mediocre years (with some great ones) under Jeff Fisher, Mr. 8-8, but things got worse after he left in 2011. The bookies think this is a second place, wild card team, but they look like division champions to me.
Houston Texans
Houston has won the AFC South two straight years, yet nobody is accusing the Texans of being an excellent team. Head coach Bill O'Brien is supposedly a quarterback whisperer, but he has cycled through eight different quarterbacks in three years with none of them really improving or excelling. The jury is till out on O'Brien who is looking like a soon to be barren branch of the Bill Belichick coaching tree like Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini.
Behind the efforts of RB Lamar Miller, the Texans were the eighth ranked rushing offense last year. Houston has many good receivers like WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and TE C.J. Fiedorowicz. The problem is they will have journeyman QB Tom Savage trying to throw it to them as O'Brien attempts to get rookie Deshaun Watson ready for NFL game action.
The Texans defense was the top-rated defense in the league last year, and they did that without their best player, DE J.J. Watt. Watt is healthy now and joining back up with an improving DE Jadeveon Clowney and veteran LB Brian Cushing. You can't forget about LB Whitney Mercilus, either -- this defense is loaded.
ESPN FPI: -1.1/7.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
I am an O'Brien skeptic. This team did very well in close games last year, but that is actually a negative sign for this year. The team at Setting the Edge dive deep into the numbers to show that Houston is a mortal lock for a regression.
Indianapolis Colts
Colts owner Jim Irsay is not rushing QB Andrew Luck and his surgically repaired shoulder onto the field. Irsay has also turned the team over to new general manager Chris Ballard after two disappointing 8-8 seasons resulted in the firing of Ryan Grigson, who was an all-star dickhead. Ballard has a lot of work to do to to get Indianapolis back into playoff contention.
Scott Tolzien will most likely start the season at quarterback as Luck completes the healing process. T.Y. Hilton leads a talented receiving corps that will do what they can to make the mediocre Tolzien look serviceable. Veteran Frank Gore and rookie Marlon Mack will pace a running game that will be hindered by the absence of C Ryan Kelly who is projected to miss at least six weeks.
The Colts defense was awful last year. Ballard signed seven defensive linemen and linebackers to help accelerate improvement. Massive DT Jonathan Hankins (6'2", 320 lbs) is the key addition of the group. There is hope that draftees S Malik Hooker and CB Quincy Wilson will spark better play in the secondary.
ESPN FPI: -0.2/8.5 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 9.0 wins
Indianapolis needs a healthy Luck and offensive line. Presently, they have neither with Kelly out and G Jake Mewhort banged up as well. You would think Ballard will get things turned around, but it probably won't be happening this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The reign of head coach Gus Bradley mercifully came to an end last year after he posted a 14-48 record in almost four full seasons. Two-time Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin has come in to be the general manager and now oversees a massive rebuilding effort. The Jaguars have managed to lose 11 games in six straight seasons and never secure a top draft pick. All signs point to more misery.
Jacksonville has some talented receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but not many people are confident QB Blake Bortles can get them the ball through two preseason games. Coughlin drafted RB Leonard Fournette out of LSU in an attempt to boost the 22nd ranked rushing offense and help out Bortles. The Jaguars also signed LT Branden Albert away from the Miami Dolphins for the same purpose, but Albert promptly retired to avoid toiling in obscurity. Oops.
Jacksonville's defense was actually pretty good last year ranking sixth overall in the NFL. They brought in ten-year veteran DE Calais Campbell to help provide leadership, but he is 30 years old and you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. There is talent at the linebacker position and cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey are legitimate "shutdown" corners.
ESPN FPI: -4.0/6.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 wins
Mabye Coughlin can capture some twilight magic reminiscent of his first tour with the Jaguars that saw him lead the expansion team to 4 winning seasons. Maybe Bortles can recapture his 2015 form that saw him throw for 4428 yards and 35 touchdowns. Most likely, the Jaguars will come in a distant last place in the AFC South.
True Fans:
Stolle: "Low expectations. Another year where "rebuild" is the frustrating excuse. We are paying for Irsay and Grigson mismanagement. We will have to wait until next year to MAYBE be excited to watch the Colts."
Note: I couldn't find any Titans, Texans or Jaguars true fans willing to admit it here.
If you are new to the series, my buddy Dan Head has already covered the East, North and South divisions of the NFC on his blog, Casa Cabeza. I have already covered the East and North divisions of the AFC.
The South has to be the weakest division in the AFC. Whoever makes it to the playoffs out of this division will be substantial underdogs to recent AFC powerhouses, namely New England and Pittsburgh.
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is trending up after a 9-7 season that was a six-win improvement over the previous year. Playing in the weak AFC South lends to such improvements, but this is definitely a team that is on the rise.
Marcus Mariota has healed his broken right fibula and he should continue his upward trajectory toward franchise quarterback status. The offensive line, led by All-Pro RT Jack Conklin and Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan, is terrific. The Titans were the third best rushing offense in the NFL with RBs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry and they improved their weak receiver corps with free agent Erik Decker and Western Michigan draftee Cory Davis.
The Tennessee defense was great against the run (second in NFL) and terrible against the pass (30th) last year. They added free agent NT Sylvester Williams from Denver to help them remain strong against the run. To improve the pass coverage, the Titans signed CB Ryan Logan away from New England and drafted CB Adoree' Jackson out of Southern Cal in the first round.
ESPN FPI: -0.6/8.3 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
Titans fans weathered many mediocre years (with some great ones) under Jeff Fisher, Mr. 8-8, but things got worse after he left in 2011. The bookies think this is a second place, wild card team, but they look like division champions to me.
Houston Texans
Houston has won the AFC South two straight years, yet nobody is accusing the Texans of being an excellent team. Head coach Bill O'Brien is supposedly a quarterback whisperer, but he has cycled through eight different quarterbacks in three years with none of them really improving or excelling. The jury is till out on O'Brien who is looking like a soon to be barren branch of the Bill Belichick coaching tree like Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini.
Behind the efforts of RB Lamar Miller, the Texans were the eighth ranked rushing offense last year. Houston has many good receivers like WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and TE C.J. Fiedorowicz. The problem is they will have journeyman QB Tom Savage trying to throw it to them as O'Brien attempts to get rookie Deshaun Watson ready for NFL game action.
The Texans defense was the top-rated defense in the league last year, and they did that without their best player, DE J.J. Watt. Watt is healthy now and joining back up with an improving DE Jadeveon Clowney and veteran LB Brian Cushing. You can't forget about LB Whitney Mercilus, either -- this defense is loaded.
ESPN FPI: -1.1/7.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
I am an O'Brien skeptic. This team did very well in close games last year, but that is actually a negative sign for this year. The team at Setting the Edge dive deep into the numbers to show that Houston is a mortal lock for a regression.
Indianapolis Colts
Colts owner Jim Irsay is not rushing QB Andrew Luck and his surgically repaired shoulder onto the field. Irsay has also turned the team over to new general manager Chris Ballard after two disappointing 8-8 seasons resulted in the firing of Ryan Grigson, who was an all-star dickhead. Ballard has a lot of work to do to to get Indianapolis back into playoff contention.
Scott Tolzien will most likely start the season at quarterback as Luck completes the healing process. T.Y. Hilton leads a talented receiving corps that will do what they can to make the mediocre Tolzien look serviceable. Veteran Frank Gore and rookie Marlon Mack will pace a running game that will be hindered by the absence of C Ryan Kelly who is projected to miss at least six weeks.
The Colts defense was awful last year. Ballard signed seven defensive linemen and linebackers to help accelerate improvement. Massive DT Jonathan Hankins (6'2", 320 lbs) is the key addition of the group. There is hope that draftees S Malik Hooker and CB Quincy Wilson will spark better play in the secondary.
ESPN FPI: -0.2/8.5 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 9.0 wins
Indianapolis needs a healthy Luck and offensive line. Presently, they have neither with Kelly out and G Jake Mewhort banged up as well. You would think Ballard will get things turned around, but it probably won't be happening this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The reign of head coach Gus Bradley mercifully came to an end last year after he posted a 14-48 record in almost four full seasons. Two-time Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin has come in to be the general manager and now oversees a massive rebuilding effort. The Jaguars have managed to lose 11 games in six straight seasons and never secure a top draft pick. All signs point to more misery.
Jacksonville has some talented receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but not many people are confident QB Blake Bortles can get them the ball through two preseason games. Coughlin drafted RB Leonard Fournette out of LSU in an attempt to boost the 22nd ranked rushing offense and help out Bortles. The Jaguars also signed LT Branden Albert away from the Miami Dolphins for the same purpose, but Albert promptly retired to avoid toiling in obscurity. Oops.
Jacksonville's defense was actually pretty good last year ranking sixth overall in the NFL. They brought in ten-year veteran DE Calais Campbell to help provide leadership, but he is 30 years old and you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. There is talent at the linebacker position and cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey are legitimate "shutdown" corners.
ESPN FPI: -4.0/6.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 wins
Mabye Coughlin can capture some twilight magic reminiscent of his first tour with the Jaguars that saw him lead the expansion team to 4 winning seasons. Maybe Bortles can recapture his 2015 form that saw him throw for 4428 yards and 35 touchdowns. Most likely, the Jaguars will come in a distant last place in the AFC South.
True Fans:
Matt Stolle, myself and Jeff Mallett cheer on the Colts, Dec. 23, 1995, at the Hoosier Dome in Indianapolis. You can see we are in the next-to-last row of the dome -- that is the top wall behind us. Colts beat the New England Patriots 10-7 to get a wild card birth in the playoffs and went on their magical run to the AFC Championship Game.
Stolle: "Low expectations. Another year where "rebuild" is the frustrating excuse. We are paying for Irsay and Grigson mismanagement. We will have to wait until next year to MAYBE be excited to watch the Colts."
Note: I couldn't find any Titans, Texans or Jaguars true fans willing to admit it here.
It's hard to be a Titans fan. I was a giant fan right after I left the Army, when Eddie George & Steve McNair led the team through their glory days. But the Giants started their current run about the same time that VY was throwing his shoulder pads into the stands, & anyway, I've been in the NY-area for 16+ years.
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