NFC & AFC South Previews
You are looking live at the final installment of a four-part series previewing the 2024 NFL season. The three previous editions can be found on the HOTPO landing page.
Next week, we will publish playoff predictions and Week 1 picks.
Let's knock this out.
NFC South
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won this mediocre, yet competitive, division last year.
The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints look to keep it competitive, while the Carolina Panthers can only hope to avoid ignominy.
Atlanta: the Falcons spent big money to bring in QB Kirk Cousins (2331 YDS/18 TD/5 INT), recently with the Minnesota Vikings and coming off an Achilles injury, via free agency, but then burned the eighth overall pick in the draft on QB Michael Penix, Jr. of Washington – a quality prospect but a curious selection. Cousins will be supported by two very good running backs in Bijan Robinson (214 ATT/976 YDS/4 TD) and Tyler Allgeier (186 ATT/683 YDS/4 TD). Atlanta has a good run blocking offensive line, but they did give up 40 sacks last year and that will need to improve to protect their investment in the older Cousins.
For years, the Falcons have struggled to generate a pass rush, as highlighted by the Associated Press, so they traded for New England Patriot DE Matthew Judon (13 Tackles/4 Sacks) to help improve that weakness. Atlanta also loaded up the front seven with five draft picks on defensive linemen and linebackers, including DT Ruke Orhorhoro of Clemson and OLB Bralen Trice from Washington. Safety Jessie Bates III (132 Tackles/6 INT) leads the eighth best pass defense in the league.
As long as Cousins is fully-recovered and stays healthy, the Falcons are the favorite to win this division.
Carolina: the Panthers are a mess. Owner Dave Tepper is a mercurial madman and they blew last year’s number one overall pick on QB Bryce Young (2877 YDS/11 TD/10 INT) who is looking like a bust in a small, one-season sample size. Nate Rogers of Medium reports Tepper installed former Panther Dan Morgan as the new general manager and hired former Buccaneer offensive coordinator as the head coach to turn around this “lost team.”
Panthers are in the running for the number one overall pick, again.
New Orleans: the Saints are running it back for season two of the head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr (38789 YDS/25 TD/8 INT) pairing. Allen has a career 0.343 winning percentage across portions of five seasons and Carr has advanced to the playoffs one time in his 10-year career. Most of those covering New Orleans believe Allen is on the hot seat and must come through this year.
While the defense did give up a lot of yards on occasion, the Saints gave up the eighth fewest point in the league last year. Tyson Warren of EnforcetheSport believes this defense, led by DE Cameron Jordan (43 Tackles/2 Sacks) and MLB Demario Davis (121 Tackles/6.5 Sacks), can be elite. Cornerback Paulson Adebo (4 INT) and S Tyrann Mathieu (4 INT) make it very hard to throw against this team.
Allen and Carr generally don’t make the playoffs and I don’t expect that to change, but maybe the defense can keep them competitive.
Tampa Bay: the Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has them playing 0.500 in his two years at the helm, and has been able to turn that into two playoff appearances due to the mediocrity of this division. Quarterback Baker Mayfield (4044 YDS/28 TD/10 INT) resurrected his career with a solid 2023 season following a 2022 season in which he had two middling stints with the Panthers and Los Angeles Rams. Receivers Mike Evans (79 REC/1255 YDS/13 TD) and Chris Godwin (83 REC/1024 YDS/2 TD) provide quality options in the passing offense, but the running game was last in the NFL in 2023.
It is the opposite of the defensive side of the ball. The Tampa Bay defense had the fifth best rushing defense, but the fourth worst passing defense last year. Inside linebacker Lavonte David (134 Tackles) and OLB Yaya Diaby (7.5 Sacks) are the leading producers on this side of the ball. TeamRiseorFall.com reports GM Jason Licht signed free agent S Jordan Whitehead (97 Tackles/4 INT), most recently with the New York Jets, and drafted S Tykee Smith of Georgia to help his struggling secondary.
There are glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball that will make it hard for this team to repeat as division champions.
AFC South
Fans of the Houston Texans have high hopes of repeating as division champions and a deep playoff run, while there is certainly optimism amongst Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts fans.
Tennessee Titans fans are likely quite pessimistic about the 2024 season.
Houston: the Texans went from worst to first last year under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and Offensive Rooke of the Year QB C. J. Stroud (4108 YDS/23 TD/5 INT) and even won a playoff game over the Cleveland Browns. General Manager Nick Caserio maximized the offseason by trading with the Buffalo Bills for WR Stefon Diggs (107 REC/1183 YDS/8 TD) and stocking the defense with free agents – DT Denico Autry (50 Tackles/11.5 Sacks), DE Danielle Hunter (83 Tackles/16.5 Sacks), MLB Azeez Al-Shaair (163 Tackles/2 Sacks) and CB Jeff Okudah (44 Tackles). This team is loaded.
Diggs will join WR Nico Collins (80 REC/1297 YDS/8 TD), WR Tank Dell (47 REC/709 YDS/7 TD) and TE Dalton Schultz (59 REC/635 YDS/5 TD) to form an elite receiver corps. Defensive Rookie of the Year DE Will Anderson Jr. (7 Sacks) and third-year man CB Derek Stingley, Jr. (5 INT) help make the defense formidable. There really are no significant weaknesses on this team.
Scott Kacsmar of 365scores.com sees the Texans as a true contender for the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis: the Colts barely missed the playoffs in head coach Shane Steichen’s first year with a disappointing 23-19 loss to the Texans in Indianapolis. The silver lining is that Indianapolis was able to win nine games and get that close while missing QB Anthony Richardson (577 YDS/3 TD/1 INT) for the majority of the year. During the offseason, GM Chris Ballard gambled on his own draft picks by resigning many Colts free agents, including leading receiver WR Michael Pittman (109 REC/1152 YDS/4 TD) and leading tackler MLB Zaire Franklin (179 Tackles).
Running back Jonathan Taylor (169 ATT/741 YDS/7 TD) missed time due to injury last year, but should be healthy, and speedy WR Adonai Mitchell from Texas was added in the draft to assist Richardson in his return from injury. Ballard drafted UCLA DE Laiatu Latu to help a mediocre pass rush that must improve to help a weak secondary. This team needs its health to improve, but already saw WR Josh Downs (68 REC/ 771 YDS/2 TD) dinged up in training camp and lost 2023 sack leader DE Samson Ebukam (9.5 Sacks) for the season.
Even if Richardson stays healthy and improves with experience, Christian D’Andrea of the USA Today believes the defense, and all those resigned free agents, must improve to make this a playoff team.
Jacksonville: the Jaguars faded down the stretch and missed out on the playoffs by one game in 2023. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (4016 YDS/21 TD/14 INT) dealt with multiple injuries through the year that negatively affected his performance while the offensive line dealt with injury issues all season. The hope in Jacksonville is that offensive line health improves facilitating running backs Travis Etienne (267 ATT/1008 YDS/11 TD) and Tank Bigsby (50 ATT/132 YDS/2 TD) improving their 24th ranked rushing attack to better support Lawrence and a quality set of receivers.
Head coach Doug Pederson brought in Ryan Nielsen as the new defensive coordinator to improve a defense that gave up the seventh most passing yards in the league. Defensive ends Josh Allen (17.5 Sacks) and Travon Walker (10 Sacks) will need to maintain their pressure on opposing quarterbacks to support a revamped secondary. Cornerback Tyson Campbell (61 Tackles/1 INT) will be relied on to improve the pass defense and he has been dominant in the preseason, according to Travis Holmes of the Big Cat Country blog.
A return to health may be all Jacksonville needs to return to the playoffs.
Tennessee: the Titans have been on a steady decline since their 12-win, division-title season of 2021. This season will see a new coaching staff led by rookie head coach Brian Callahan, formerly the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals. Tennessee also said fare well to long-time workhorse RB Derrick Henry (280 ATT/1167 YDS/12 TD) and the new regime will install a more pass-oriented offensive scheme.
John Glennon of Nashville Scene put together an excellent season preview on the Titans where he highlighted the massive change this team is undergoing to include bringing in 35 new players, keeping only nine of last year’s 22 starters and throwing $318.2 million at free agents during the offseason. You can’t fault GM Ran Carthon for inactivity. This is going to be a complex puzzle for a rookie head coach to put together.
This is the first season of a rebuild that will take a few years to complete – no playoffs here.
MLB Check-In
The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, HOTPO's two "hometown" teams, are both attempting to execute rebuilds. The last few years have seen both teams trade veterans with expiring contracts for prospects and enduring losing seasons. While I had greater hopes for the Reds earlier in the summer, it is the Nats that are showing improvement.
Cincinnati finished last year 82-80, but now sit at 64-70 and have lost four straight series. The Reds continually play shoddy defense and stack up TOOTBLANs. They are a frustrating watch and will likely finish under 0.500 this year.
Washington finished last year 71-91, but just finished taking two of three from the American League East leading New York Yankees at Nats Park. The HOTPO staff got an opportunity to cover the Nationals' Tuesday night 4-2 victory that saw recent call-up RF Dylan Crews get his first two MLB hits. It was refreshing to see one of the home teams smack a couple of home runs, get excellent starting pitching and secure a win.
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