The NFL is back and MLB heads into stretch run

National Football League training camps initiated in late-July and the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears opened preseason play Thursday night (Aug. 1) in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. 

It is now, finally, time to start tracking the NFL in earnest. 

This week we will look at some storylines to follow through the season and make some initial predictions. Over the next four weeks, we will dig deeper into each division (two per week). After previewing all eight divisions, we will have just enough time to explore what changed or emerged throughout the training camps and finalize season predictions. 

NFL 2024 Storylines

Mark Maske of the Washington Post provided a good season primer in which he highlighted 12 storylines including: (1) the New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers' return from a torn Achilles' tendon, (2) the record-tying six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, (3) Jim Harbaugh's return to the NFL as the coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, and (4) the Kansas City Chiefs attempt to become the first-ever, three-peat champions.  

You can find notes on your team in a comprehensive training camp preview of all 32 teams compiled by NFL Nation of ESPN. The NFL Nation team appropriately highlighted the Colts QB Anthony Richardson as being the key to an Indianapolis team that exceeded expectations while their then-rookie quarterback spent most of the 2023 season on the injured list. It's all about another young quarterback in the Washington Commanders camp, where optimism abounds, as a brand-new coaching staff under Dan Quinn integrate the #2 overall pick, Jayden Daniels, under center. 

Since betting continues to capture increasing attention from fans, Patrick Everson of FOX Sports took a look at the early lines for the marquee Week 1 games. The season will initiate Thursday, Sept. 5 with the Baltimore Ravens heading to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game with Kansas City currently a 3-point favorite. Rodgers and the Jets will close out Week 1 in San Francisco, Monday, Sept. 9, with the host 49ers currently a 5.5-point favorite in a much-anticipated matchup. 

Initial Predictions

Fourteen of 32 teams make the NFL playoffs. On average, about eight return to the playoffs the following year and are joined by six new playoff participants. Not over-guessing on the dropouts is key, because the majority will likely repeat. 

Can you guess the six teams that have made the playoffs each of the last three years? Buffalo, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Tampa Bay are all on three-year playoff runs, according to Will Brinson of CBSSports.com, who wrote a very interesting article about the 2023 playoff teams he thinks will regress this year. I feel pretty certain one (Tampa) will not make it this year and another (Dallas) is very fallible, but I haven't figured out which team might replace them yet. 

The table below shows the 2023 playoff teams and the HOTPO 2024 Early NFL Predictions. Teams in amber on the left are those we predict to take a step back this year. Teams in green on the right are those we see getting back to the playoffs after missing out last year. 

Over the course of the next month, we will go deeper on all the divisions and revise final predictions. Until then, if you want a fun read with some truly bold predictions, check out what Judy Battista of NFL.com had to say way back in May. 

MLB Trade Deadline Review

Since Major League Baseball expanded its playoffs from 10 to 12 teams in 2022, it feels like the trade deadline passes with less drama, because more teams think they still have a chance of making the playoffs (which they do) and think they are buyers instead of sellers.

Two teams, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox, really confused me this year, and both were highlighted in a trade deadline winners/losers article by Anthony Dabbundo of the Ringer. The Rays were two games above 0.500 and three games back of the last wild card slot coming into the trade deadline, but they traded every valuable player that wasn't tied down. And the White Sox - a historically bad team - held onto their two most valuable trade pieces in OF Luis Robert, Jr. and SP Garrett Crochet. I guess both teams will be bad next year. 

Will Leitch of the Natitude blog sees the Cardinals, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Phillies and Royals as this year's trade deadline "winners," but you can find differing opinions. The Dodgers, Orioles and Phillies are all having great years and will make the playoffs, but the Cardinals, Mariners, Mets and Royals all need to gain ground or are barely hanging in a playoff spot. It will be very interesting to see how those four perform down the stretch. 

The Reds and Nats each moved some veterans for some prospects. Nothing of consequence to see here. More mediocre play in the immediate future for both of those clubs. 

NEXT WEEK: NFC and AFC West previews and whatever excites the dome piece.