Mens College Basketball HOTPO 15 Update (2 Weeks To the Tourney) w/Ft. Bragg Mission Report
As the football season was coming to a close, I wasn't really all that interested in college basketball.
But with that being the next big thing on the calendar, I started digging in and I have to say - I'm starting to get enthusiastic about the sport, again.
I tuned into the Michigan State at Maryland game Wednesday night and watched the end of an ugly classic. It was a defensive battle between two ranked teams in the Xfinity Center in College Park, Maryland that looked like it was packed with nothing but vodka & Red Bull-fueled students with no Thursday classes. The place was absolutely super-charged.
The game came down to three possessions in the last 8+ seconds and was determined by a last-second, greater-than-half-court shot that went down with a resounding "thunk," not a swish. It was bonkers. And probably my, "Yeah, I'm fully in" moment for this season.
Thursday morning, a portion of Barry Svrluga's column on the game perfectly summed up the challenge of following college basketball with super-conferences and transitioning players that have tamped enthusiasm for many old school fans:
"The way this unfolded over the final minutes is precisely the reason college hoops can be so enthralling when the games grow in importance. For so much of the winter, the sport has come to feel like filler programming — unfamiliar, sprawling, amorphous conferences with teams playing games from coast to coast, with players bouncing from program to program willy-nilly. It can be flat-out hard to follow."
To increase familiarity of this sprawling and amorphous beast that is modern college basketball, I started to focus on the most important teams heading to the tournament along with some "locals" from the HOTPO beat.
Which Teams We Have Been Tracking
KenPom Top 20 Teams in Both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Rankings: According to Reed Wallach of Sports Illustrated, all but two men’s basketball tournament champions since 2002 have been top 20 in both the KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. Two weeks ago, those teams were (with their KenPom rankings at that time):
- Auburn - 1 Adjusted Offense/16 Adjusted Defense
- Duke - 5/4
- Houston - 8/3
- Florida - 4/9
- Iowa State - 18/7
- Arizona - 14/18
- Maryland - 20/20
Three Highly-Ranked Teams (without two Top 20 KenPom rankings) with Excellent Coaches: Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan.
Five "Locals" with a Dash of Mid-Major Flavor: Indiana, Georgetown, VCU, George Mason and Dayton.
That comprises the now HOTPO 15 and what you will see in the below table. The green highlights annotate a Top 20 KenPom ranking and now, only six are maintaining the all-important double Top 20 ranking. The AP ranking is as Feb. 24.
Random thoughts from the last week:
- Auburn and Duke are clearly the top two teams and Houston is a super-competitive third. If these three are in different brackets, they are all solid Final Four bets.
- Michigan State (AP #8, KenPom aO 27, aD 6) didn't make the cut of the HOTPO 15 when it was formed two weeks ago, but they are very good and peaking. I am not going to add or subtract from the 15, but Michigan State would be the one addition if I were to make one.
- Indiana plays stretches of horrible basketball, but they have won two consecutive games. They just might be rallying around lame duck coach Mike Woodson for a Cinderella run (doubt it, but maybe).
So, scan the table and read the team updates below the table to help you set up your viewing schedule for the weekend.
Note: the KenPom rankings change daily, rankings vary slightly from day-to-day.
|
School |
Last Game |
AP Rank |
KenPom aO |
KenPom aD |
|
Auburn |
W vs Ole Miss, 106-76 |
1 |
1
(130.7) |
12
(93.7) |
|
Florida |
L @ UGA, 88-83 |
3 |
4
(126.6) |
8
(93.1) |
|
Duke |
W @ Miami, 97-60 |
2 |
2
(128.6) |
4
(89.9) |
|
Alabama |
W vs Miss St., 111-73 |
6 |
3
(127.8) |
40 (98.4) |
|
Houston |
W @ Tx Tech, 69-61 |
4 |
8
(125.1) |
3
(89.1) |
|
Tennessee |
W vs Vandy, 81-76 |
5 |
25 (119.0) |
1
(87.5) |
|
Iowa State |
L @ Okla St., 74-68 |
9 |
23 (119.3) |
11
(93.5) |
|
Michigan |
W vs Rutgers, 84-82 |
15 |
40 (117.4) |
19 (95.0) |
|
Arizona |
W @ Baylor, 74-67 |
22 |
17
(120.8) |
19
(94.9) |
|
Maryland |
W vs Iowa, 101-75 |
16 |
20
(119.5) |
16
(94.6) |
|
George Mason |
W vs Fordham, 74-64 |
NA |
212 (105.8) |
18
(94.8) |
|
VCU |
W vs. G. Mason, 70-54 |
NA |
45 (117.0) |
23 (96.2) |
|
Dayton |
L @ URI, 85-77 |
NA |
40 (117.4) |
160 (106.8) |
|
Indiana |
W, vs Penn St., 83-78 |
NA |
57 (115.4) |
51 (99.6) |
|
Georgetown |
L @ UConn, 93-79 |
NA |
144 (108.9) |
46 (98.9) |
HOTPO 15 Team Updates
- Auburn: stacking bodies with two more wins, visiting #17 Kentucky Saturday
- Florida: took tough loss at UGA Tuesday, but still maintaining Top 20 in both KenPom ratings, hosting #12 Texas A&M Saturday (good game)
- Duke: two more blowout wins, hosting FSU Saturday
- Alabama: two solid wins over ranked teams, but still lacking in aD rankings, at #5 Tennessee Saturday (BIG GAME!)
- Houston: two wins over ranked teams, at Cincy Saturday
- Tennessee: two more wins, aO ranking still outside Top 20 but rising, hosting #6 Bama Saturday (BIG GAME, as stated above)
- Iowa State: two losses, slipping in both KenPom rankings and outside Top 20 in aO, hosting #22 Arizona Saturday (important game)
- Michigan: after a loss (#14 MSU), two unimpressive wins over unranked teams (Nebraska, Rutgers), weak aO ranking, Sunday hosting Illinois
- Arizona: lost close one (BYU), won a blowout (Utah), maintaining Top 20 in both KenPom rankings, at #9 Iowa State Saturday (important game, as stated above)
- Maryland: last-second loss (#14 MSU), maintaining Top 20 in both KenPom rankings, at Penn State Saturday
- George Mason: tough loss (@ VCU), but rebounded with win (Fordham), maintaining Top 20 aD ranking, travel to Duquesne Saturday (On the Bubble Alert, in Lunardi’s Next Four Out as of Wednesday)
- VCU: two double-digit wins and maintaining strong KenPom rankings (albeit outside the Top 20 in both), host Davidson Friday
- Dayton: a win, a loss, hosting Richmond on CBS Sports Network Saturday (pencil it into your dance card – Hey, here come the Flyers)
- Indiana: well, I’ll be! Two wins including a drubbing of #13 Purdue in Assembly Hall, at Washington Saturday (On the Bubble Alert, in Lunardi’s First Four Out as of Wednesday)
- Georgetown: two straight losses, horrible aO ranking, just benchmarking for next season, host #21 Marquette Saturday
Ft. Bragg Mission Report
The HOTPO ran a 48-hour mission to Fort Bragg, North Carolina for a link-up with a bunch of old paratroopers and West Point classmates. I had the opportunity to spend time with gentlemen I had only seen a handful of times since departing Fort Bragg in 1998. While I don't enjoy being this old and distant from my time in the 82nd Airborne Division, I am grateful for the opportunity to get a Little Group of Paratroopers (LGOP) together to celebrate one of our own.
Congratulations to Colonel Joe Kuchan on his retirement from the Army after 30 years of exemplary service. Thanks to Major General Pat Work for officiating the important event. All the Way, Gentlemen.
Comments
Post a Comment