A Memorial with your Week 4 NFL Picks
I always try to start one of these posts with a personal photo because that draws interest in social media and we don't have an excellent photography staff here at the HOTPO headquarters. So I am always looking for a unique lede of some kind.
Didn't have one this weekend...I thought. Then a photo popped into my Facebook feed.
Joe Narvaez was killed in combat on Oct. 2, 2006. Joe was a sergeant in the 1st Battalion, 26th Infantry Regiment mortar platoon on our first Iraq deployment in 2004.
That platoon did some serious fighting on July 8, 2004. We lost some teammates that day. I remember coming back onto the forward operating base that afternoon and seeing Narvaez.
Narvaez, at no fault of his own, wasn't in the fight where we lost some of his soldiers, some of his friends. He was incredibly upset, pacing back and forth. From what I remember, he felt like he had let his team down not being there. We had the mortar platoon soldiers on shifts though, and it wasn't his shift...his absence had nothing to do with any decision he made or could influence.
I bumped into Joe following that deployment at Fort Benning. He was in the Infantry Mortar Leaders Course working to improve his technical and tactical expertise for his next deployment. He wanted to be the best leader he could be for his soldiers. We talked for almost an hour...easy flowing conversation, so nice to chat with him.
On that next deployment, he was killed. Joe Narvaez was a super solid dude. He never let anyone down.
As I have said, I am glad sports are back and the sports media keeps telling me about the sacrifices the players are making...living in a bubble, time away from home. There are sacrifices and there are sacrifices. This week I thought of the sacrifice Joe Narvaez made.
Wanted you to know about his sacrifice. May he continue to rest in peace.
Alright. I am flexing my compartmentalization muscles now and turning on a dime.
Lets' do some picks.
Baltimore Ravens (-13) at Washington Football Team: I often have local sports radio on when I am working from home or driving around on errands. The local sports radio talent has been killing Washington QB Dwayne Haskins all week. In this stream of audio, I heard that 27 percent of his throws are "inaccurate" according to one expert. That means one of four throws is "uncatchable" by one of his receivers. Putrid. - RAVENS
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7): I thought the Chargers would get a "W" in a winnable game last week against the 0-2 Carolina Panthers in Charlotte. WRONG. Michael Peterson from BoltsfromtheBlue.com says part of the problem with Los Angeles is the health of their offensive line which is dealing with multiple injuries. That is not helpful to rookie QB Justin Herbert in a trip to the east coast for the second week in a row. - BUCCANEERS
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5): Close your eyes. Envision what you have seen so far this year. Engage your brain. Now listen: "The Browns are 2-1, the Cowboys 1-2." Is that messed up or what? I had to look twice at the standings to hammer that into my brain (Just looked again to make sure I was accurate). Cleveland has victories over the "putrid" Washington team and the "slightly better than putrid" Cincinnati Bengals. Dallas is a completely different entity than those two teams. - COWBOYS
Note: It is Friday afternoon...local sports radio is still talking about Dwayne Haskins.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Carolina Panthers: Jason Green of StatSalt.com wrote a very informative preview of this game. The Cardinals lost their first game of the year last week against the previously winless Detroit Lions 26-23, but outgained the Lions 377 yards to 322 yards and only allowed 90 rushing yards, according to Green. He also highlighted that while the previously winless Panthers bested the Chargers 21-16 last week, they were outgained by 134 yards and only managed 81 rushing yards. Those stats don't bode well for Carolina. - CARDINALS
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Detroit Lions: It feels like neither of these teams should be 1-2. Hard to believe the Saints don't have a winning record. It is also hard to believe the Lions have won a game. Since Detroit head coach Matt Patricia took charge prior to the 2018 season, Detroit is 10-24-1. In that same time frame, New Orleans is 27-8. I think Patricia finds a way to lose this one (like 68 percent of the games he has coached in Detroit). - LIONS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): No quarterback in the NFL has been sacked more than Bengal QB Joe Burrow - 14 times. Yeesh. According to Dadio Makdook of CincyJungle.com, the Jaguars defensive front cannot get to the quarterback with only one sack in the last two games. Burrow will finally have time to let it rip and move the ball this weekend. - BENGALS
Note: It's Saturday and I just drove home with my daughter from her softball game...local sports radio is still talking about Dwayne Haskins.
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-5): Both of these teams were playoff teams last year and generally predicted to be playoff teams this year. They are both 0-3. I think we would all rate Texans QB DeShaun Watson above Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. But, the Vikings leading rusher is RB Dalvin Cook (3rd overall, 294 yards) while the Texans leading rusher is RB David Johnson (#37, 134) and the Vikings leading receiver is WR Justin Jefferson (#14, 245) while the Texans leading receiver is WR Randall Cobb (#36, 177). Cousins seemingly has more help, and Houston head coach Bill O'Brien is a boob, and I want to pick the Vikings...but I can't. - TEXANS
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson leads the NFL in TDs (14) and quarterback rating (139). Tyler Alsin of FieldGulls.com reports the Dolphins secondary is banged up, too. We don't have to spend a ton of time researching this one. - SEAHAWKS
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears: The Bears are 3-0 with having Mitch Trubisky as a starter for those three games. You know this is a gimme, right? - BEARS
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13): Another easy one. Do you honestly want to read my pontifications on this? - RAMS
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders: On thought this game was a tough one to call initially. Then I ran across the thoughts from the NFL beat writers from the Buffalo News. Common thoughts from Vic Carucci, Jay Skurski, Mark Gaughan, Jason Wolf and Rachel Lenzi were that Buffalo will struggle to stop the Las Vegas running attack led by RB Josh Jacobs, but Las Vegas is coming into the game with too many injuries to key players to overcome. - BILLS
Note: It's Sunday and we had a bunch of kids spending the night at HOTPO headquarters last night so I had to run to the grocery store for eggs and OJ...local sports radio is still talking about Dwayne Haskins.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7): Hoo Boy, this game is gonna be a humdinger, an old style donnybrook! Ben Weinrib of Athlon Sports says the key to beating Kansas City is generating a pass rush to pressure QB Patrick Mahomes. The Patriots probably don't have the bodies to make that happen and their offense will struggle to keep up with the K.C. point machine. - CHIEFS
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7): The wheels are falling off the cart in Philly. - 49ERS
Enjoy the games.
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