Hoosier Re-certification w/Men's College Basketball Regular Season Wrap-Up

Hoosier Re-Certification

Just like a paratrooper needs a static line jump every 90 days to stay current, the HOTPO must conduct Indiana excursions on a regular basis to stay current and qualified as a Hoosier expat. 

Recently, the HOTPO braved more winter weather to hit Richmond and Muncie, Indiana, to stay certified. 

The Saturday of that weekend included a long drive through Appalachia to the Midwest and a visit to the HOTPO ancestral homestead in Richmond. It included an opportunity to walk through the ruins of a once great basketball cathedral. The stop also allowed for a homemade lasagna dinner with family, as well. 

The next day was primarily spent at Ball State University in Muncie for a dance team clinic and a link-up with a long-time HOTPO subscriber. It was a short, business-oriented visit. Too short – looking forward to a return to the home state for the Indy 500. 

At the old homestead in Richmond, Indiana.

Imagine a hoop and backboard over the right-side door and a pole light just out of the picture to the right that paired with the light under the top window of the barn...a former basketball mecca. 

Meeting with loyal subscribers to the HOTPO at Brother's in Muncie, Indiana - pork tenderloin sandwich was NOT on the menu, significant error of omission by ownership.

Continuing to support a dancer loosely affiliated with the HOTPO - the business of the trip.

NCAA Men’s Basketball Season is Complete

Reminder our HOTPO 15 is primarily looking at the KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive rankings because all but two eventual NCAA men's basketball national champions since 2002 have been inside both KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. We look at the teams that are achieving that, a couple that are close and round out the fifteen with some "locals." The AP rankings and Joe Lunardi's Bracketology assessment are also included to provide additional context. 

When we last looked at the college basketball landscape a couple of weeks ago, seven teams were in the KenPom top 20 for both adjusted offensive and defensive rankings: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston, Florida, Iowa State and Vanderbilt. We are now down to five teams maintaining two top-20 rankings: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida and Houston. That national champion and probably multiple Final Four participants are likely coming out of that remaining five. 

HOTPO 15, as of March 9:

School	Record	NetRtg	aO Rank	aD Rank	AP	Lunardi Bracket
Duke	29-2 (5-0)	1	5	1	1	East 1
Michigan	29-2 (4-1)	2	4	2	3	Midwest 1
Arizona	29-2 (5-0)	3	7	3	2	West 1
Florida	25-6 (5-0)	4	8	4	4	South 1
Illinois	24-7 (2-2)	5	1	26	9	West 2
Houston	26-5 (3-2)	6	17	6	5	South 2
Iowa State	25-6 (2-3)	7	26	7	7	Midwest 3
Purdue	23-8 (2-3)	8	2	39	18	South 3
UConn	27-4 (3-1)	11	28	11	6	Midwest 2
Vanderbilt	24-7 (3-2)	13	15	27	22	Midwest 4
Louisville	22-9 (3-2)	16	14	30	24	West 5
Texas Tech	22-9 (3-2)	17	10	33	16	East 4
Indiana	18-13 (1-4)	41	39	59	NA	On the Bubble
VCU	24-7 (3-1)	45	46	64	NA	Midwest 11
Miami OH	31-0 (5-0)	91	70	139	20	Midwest 10

Spencer Limbach of PoolGenius believes three measurements by TeamRankings are the key to identifying the eventual champion: Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency and Strength of Schedule. Limbach sees Michigan, Duke, Florida, Arizona, Iowa State and Louisville as the six teams to watch. He also thinks Houston, UConn, Illinois and Michigan State have outside shots at securing the championship. Identifying 10 highly rated teams as contenders is not necessarily going out on a limb for picking an eventual champion, however.

Duke, Arizona and Florida are the three teams that have separated from our HOTPO 15 pack since we last looked. 

Duke has won five straight games, including a win over Michigan at a neutral site. The Blue Devils defeated two AP-ranked teams, UVA and UNC, in that span while also throttling Notre Dame by 44 points and NC State by 29. 

Arizona has also won five in a row, including a win over Houston. The Wildcats didn’t blow out their opponents like Duke but have wins over two additional AP-ranked teams, Kansas and Iowa State, as well.

Florida finished of their SEC schedule with five straight wins, including a win over AP-ranked Arkansas. The Gators beat the Razorbacks by a shocking 34 points and beat Mississippi State by 34 during the run, too. 

The top 12 teams in the HOTPO 15 above are basically guaranteed invites to the tourney. Miami of Ohio is still undefeated but may need to win the MidAmerican Conference tournament to ensure inclusion in the big dance. David Cobb and Jacob Fetner of CBS Sports think VCU needs to advance to the Atlantic 10 title game and Indiana needs to make the Big 10 quarterfinals, which would require beating a better Purdue team, to punch their tickets to the tourney. 

So, the major conference tournaments start getting serious today and rankings will alter slightly from here. But, Duke, Arizona and Florida are your true top three contenders with Michigan and Houston capable of competing with them. The top Cinderella – Miami of Ohio – and our two “locals” – VCU and IU – still have a little work to do.