AFC West Preview
This is the final post in an eight-part series co-written by myself and Dan Head on his blog Casa Cabeza. It is appropriate that this is the final of my AFC division previews, because the AFC West is by far the deepest and most talented division in the conference. All four teams have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
If you have missed any of the incredibly insightful previous seven installments, feel free to give them a read:
Oakland (soon to be Las Vegas) Raiders
So the Raiders went 12-4 last year and went to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. How do you follow up that success? Tell your fans you are leaving for Vegas in 2020, which is like "a husband or wife filing for divorce because they found a new love, but deciding to remain living in the same house for another three years," according to Gary Myers of the New York Daily News. Well said, Mr. Myers.
The Raiders might have challenged for the AFC championship last year but QB Derek Carr broke his fibula in Week 16. He is healthy now and playing behind a stellar offensive line that allowed a league low 18 sacks and led the way for the sixth best rushing attack. I am a little skeptical (though many are not) that RB Marshawn Lynch will equal the departed RB Latavius Murray, but Carr has numerous targets in WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper and TE Jared Crook.
Oakland's defense is led by the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, DE Khalil Mack, but was the 26th ranked defense in the league. The Raiders spent their first two draft picks on defenders CB Gareon Conley and S Obi Melifonwu, but the Oakland defense still looks bad after three preseason games. They brought in John Pagano, formers San Diego Chargers defensive coordinator, as an assistant head coach focused on helping the defense, but a lot of people in Indy wouldn't see a coach named Pagano as a good thing.
ESPN FPI: +3.7/10.0 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
There is a ton of talent on offense and one legit superstar on the defense. Head coach Jack Del Rio has managed to keep this team trending upward for two years. If he can get slight improvement out of the defense, this unlawful cohabitation might birth something spectacular.
Kansas City Chiefs
Continuity at the top is the theme for the Chiefs. Head coach Andy Reid finished his 18th season has an NFL coach with 184 victories and has led Kansas City the last four season to an impressive 44-24 mark. Former Army football head coach Bob Sutton leads the defense that needs to be better this year.
Quarterback Alex Smith digressed last year as his yardage, touchdown and passer rating totals all slipped. With the departure of formerly great RB Jamaal Charles in free agency and the injury to heir apparent RB Spencer Ware, Kansas City will be putting the running game in the hands of third round draft pick Kareem Hunt. Beyond TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill, there are few legitimate downfield targets, but the offensive line is solid.
The back end of the Chief's defense is stellar with S Eric Berry and CB Marcus Peters combining for 10 interceptions. Linebackers Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, and Derrick Johnson are all tremendous, but all have recent injury histories and are advancing in age. The defensive line was mediocre against the run (26th in the league, worst of all eight division winners) and only produced 6.5 sacks.
ESPN FPI: +3.4/9.0 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The Chiefs have won 12 games in each of the last two years and have steady hands at the top. Reid has to develop some offensive options and keep his stalwart defenders healthy. If those two things happen, Kansas City is playing football in January.
San Diego Los Angeles Chargers
These crazy bed hopping West Coasters! The Chargers have left their 56 year marriage to San Diego and are jumping in the sack with Los Angeles, a town that uses up, then ignores, and then discards NFL teams like last year's hot reality star gone stale.
When you look at the Chargers offense, you wonder how they only won nine games over the last two years. From the outside, I assume it was because fired head coach Mike McCoy was an idiot, but his players all hated to see him go. Rookie head coach Anthony Lynn comes in to a top-notch veteran quarterback (Philip Rivers), a young and bullish running back (Melvin Gordon) and some great downfield targets (WR Keenan Allen, TE Antonio Gates, and draftee WR Michael Williams out of Clemson).
The San Diego, I mean Los Angeles defense starts up front with the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year DE Joey Bosa who had 10.5 sacks last year. Melvin Ingram and his eight sacks is at the other end. That fearsome rush led to CB Casey Hayward snagging a league-leading seven interceptions last year. A solid linebacker corps led by Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown complete this very solid defense.
ESPN FPI: -0.7/7.6 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Maybe this Chargers team can be the one entity that crosses over from little brother San Diego and actually achieves critical acclaim in Hollywood. There is a ton of talent, but a rookie coach. There is potential for a disaster, but I see the Chargers in the playoffs.
Denver Broncos
Denver went 9-7 last year, but missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Health issues led to Super Bowl champion head coach Gary Kubiak stepping down. The Broncos also enter 2017 with a rookie head coach at the helm in Vance Joseph. Rookie head coaches are always a gamble.
A franchise that is known for Hall of Fame, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, just decided a little over a week ago that Trevor Siemian would be their starter after a decent 2016 that ended in injury. Both WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders went for 1000+ yards and five touchdowns in spite of the Broncos season-long quarterback trials. Interestingly, Denver signed former Kansas City Chief RB Jamaal Charles to help boost their 27th ranked rushing offense.
Linebackers Von Miller and Shane Ray combined for 21.5 sacks last year to pace the league's fourth best defense. In the secondary, CBs Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. became the first teammates to garner first-team All-Pro honors in the same season. Bringing in DT Domata Peko and DE Zach Kerr through free agency might be the final piece to make this the top rated defense in the NFL.
ESPN FPI: +0.8/7.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
I am more skeptical of the Charles signing then I am of the Lynch deal. This defense might be hitting their age limit, too. I think the Chiefs get a wild card berth and it is a toss up between the Charges and Broncos getting the second wild card and last playoff slot.
True Fans: Matt Edmond
Edmond: "Although they missed the playoffs for the first time after 5 straight division titles, I'd chalk up 2016 as a successful year for the Broncos. They re-signed SB MVP Von Miller, dodged a massive bullet by not re-signing Brock Osweiler, and instead got some serious value out of Trevor Siemian, who's bearing a vague resemblance to a long term starter. Denver's three biggest problems in 2016 were an inconsistent passing game and an anemic running game, both due in large part to a flimsy offensive line, and weakness against the run on the defensive side, attributed largely to the loss of Sylvester Williams and Danny Trevathan. Early signs indicate some improvement in these three areas, and if they can improve on last year's woeful 2-4 division record and at least split the series with the Raiders and Chiefs, they may have a shot at taking back the AFC West in 2017."
If you have missed any of the incredibly insightful previous seven installments, feel free to give them a read:
Oakland (soon to be Las Vegas) Raiders
So the Raiders went 12-4 last year and went to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. How do you follow up that success? Tell your fans you are leaving for Vegas in 2020, which is like "a husband or wife filing for divorce because they found a new love, but deciding to remain living in the same house for another three years," according to Gary Myers of the New York Daily News. Well said, Mr. Myers.
The Raiders might have challenged for the AFC championship last year but QB Derek Carr broke his fibula in Week 16. He is healthy now and playing behind a stellar offensive line that allowed a league low 18 sacks and led the way for the sixth best rushing attack. I am a little skeptical (though many are not) that RB Marshawn Lynch will equal the departed RB Latavius Murray, but Carr has numerous targets in WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper and TE Jared Crook.
Oakland's defense is led by the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, DE Khalil Mack, but was the 26th ranked defense in the league. The Raiders spent their first two draft picks on defenders CB Gareon Conley and S Obi Melifonwu, but the Oakland defense still looks bad after three preseason games. They brought in John Pagano, formers San Diego Chargers defensive coordinator, as an assistant head coach focused on helping the defense, but a lot of people in Indy wouldn't see a coach named Pagano as a good thing.
ESPN FPI: +3.7/10.0 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
There is a ton of talent on offense and one legit superstar on the defense. Head coach Jack Del Rio has managed to keep this team trending upward for two years. If he can get slight improvement out of the defense, this unlawful cohabitation might birth something spectacular.
Kansas City Chiefs
Continuity at the top is the theme for the Chiefs. Head coach Andy Reid finished his 18th season has an NFL coach with 184 victories and has led Kansas City the last four season to an impressive 44-24 mark. Former Army football head coach Bob Sutton leads the defense that needs to be better this year.
Quarterback Alex Smith digressed last year as his yardage, touchdown and passer rating totals all slipped. With the departure of formerly great RB Jamaal Charles in free agency and the injury to heir apparent RB Spencer Ware, Kansas City will be putting the running game in the hands of third round draft pick Kareem Hunt. Beyond TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill, there are few legitimate downfield targets, but the offensive line is solid.
The back end of the Chief's defense is stellar with S Eric Berry and CB Marcus Peters combining for 10 interceptions. Linebackers Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, and Derrick Johnson are all tremendous, but all have recent injury histories and are advancing in age. The defensive line was mediocre against the run (26th in the league, worst of all eight division winners) and only produced 6.5 sacks.
ESPN FPI: +3.4/9.0 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The Chiefs have won 12 games in each of the last two years and have steady hands at the top. Reid has to develop some offensive options and keep his stalwart defenders healthy. If those two things happen, Kansas City is playing football in January.
These crazy bed hopping West Coasters! The Chargers have left their 56 year marriage to San Diego and are jumping in the sack with Los Angeles, a town that uses up, then ignores, and then discards NFL teams like last year's hot reality star gone stale.
When you look at the Chargers offense, you wonder how they only won nine games over the last two years. From the outside, I assume it was because fired head coach Mike McCoy was an idiot, but his players all hated to see him go. Rookie head coach Anthony Lynn comes in to a top-notch veteran quarterback (Philip Rivers), a young and bullish running back (Melvin Gordon) and some great downfield targets (WR Keenan Allen, TE Antonio Gates, and draftee WR Michael Williams out of Clemson).
The San Diego, I mean Los Angeles defense starts up front with the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year DE Joey Bosa who had 10.5 sacks last year. Melvin Ingram and his eight sacks is at the other end. That fearsome rush led to CB Casey Hayward snagging a league-leading seven interceptions last year. A solid linebacker corps led by Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown complete this very solid defense.
ESPN FPI: -0.7/7.6 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Maybe this Chargers team can be the one entity that crosses over from little brother San Diego and actually achieves critical acclaim in Hollywood. There is a ton of talent, but a rookie coach. There is potential for a disaster, but I see the Chargers in the playoffs.
Denver Broncos
Denver went 9-7 last year, but missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Health issues led to Super Bowl champion head coach Gary Kubiak stepping down. The Broncos also enter 2017 with a rookie head coach at the helm in Vance Joseph. Rookie head coaches are always a gamble.
A franchise that is known for Hall of Fame, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, just decided a little over a week ago that Trevor Siemian would be their starter after a decent 2016 that ended in injury. Both WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders went for 1000+ yards and five touchdowns in spite of the Broncos season-long quarterback trials. Interestingly, Denver signed former Kansas City Chief RB Jamaal Charles to help boost their 27th ranked rushing offense.
Linebackers Von Miller and Shane Ray combined for 21.5 sacks last year to pace the league's fourth best defense. In the secondary, CBs Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. became the first teammates to garner first-team All-Pro honors in the same season. Bringing in DT Domata Peko and DE Zach Kerr through free agency might be the final piece to make this the top rated defense in the NFL.
ESPN FPI: +0.8/7.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 8.5 wins
I am more skeptical of the Charles signing then I am of the Lynch deal. This defense might be hitting their age limit, too. I think the Chiefs get a wild card berth and it is a toss up between the Charges and Broncos getting the second wild card and last playoff slot.
True Fans: Matt Edmond
I was born in San Diego & remember being a die hard Chargers fan from the Dan Fouts days through Stan Humpries's unlikely leadership to the Super Bowl. But they're dead to me now. I like Rivers, but it's been hard to watch these past few years, & I refuse to think of any part of my story as "Los Angelos".
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