NFL Conference Championship Weekend Picks w/Concert Review
NFL Division Round Review
I found the divisional round of the playoffs a little disappointing. What could have been great games, were games decided by mistakes, or in one case - a consistent deficiency. Let's take a look.
Chief 23, Texans 14: I have been harping the last two weeks that the Texans have trouble keeping QB C.J Stroud clean and he doesn't perform well under pressure. For the second week in a row, Stroud did perform pretty well under pressure (19-28, 245 yards, with 42 rushing yards on six carries) but couldn't find the endzone through the air. The Chiefs pressure got to Stroud for eight sacks
Those sacks along with two missed field goals, the inability to cover Kansas City TE Travis Kelce (8 receptions, 117 yards, 1 TD) and possibly a Wiccan spell on the referees spelled doom for the underdogs.
Commanders 44, Lions 31: I said the Commanders can't run the ball (beyond QB Jayden Daniels) and can't stop the run, but they had a chance if their no-huddle running offense could get going against a Lions defense that had struggled against that format. Washington was able to jump start their running game with RB Brian Robinson, Jr. (77 yards on 15 carries) and RB Austin Ekeler (47 yards on 6 carries) both having very efficient days while Daniels did his thing again adding 51 yards on 16 carries. The Lions gashed the Commander for 201 yards on the ground, but turned the ball over FIVE times.
If you lose the turnover battle 5-0, you lose the game.
Eagles 28, Rams 22: I couldn't find any data to support my Rams prediction, but felt they would get pressure on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and that Hurts wouldn't be able to manufacture enough of a passing game to keep up. The Los Angeles rush was excellent getting seven sacks with one for a safety and Hurts was only able to throw for 128 measly yards. However, Rams QB Matt Stafford and RB Kyren Williams lost fumbles in the fourth quarter that led to two field goals - the eventual final margin of six points.
If you lose the fourth quarter turnover battle 2-0, you lose the game.
Bills 27, Ravens 25: I felt this game was too close to call, but Baltimore RB Derrick Henry would be the difference. Henry was the leading rusher with 84 yards on 16 carries. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson had a better day than Bills QB Josh Allen (254 yards, 1TD versus 127 yards, 0 TD), but he threw an interception and lost a fumble AND TE Mark Andrews fumbled away the ball while trying to come back in the fourth quarter.
If you lose the turnover battle 3-0, you lose the game.
I found some quality angles for my predictions last week and for the most part they turned out to be valid, but those turnovers doomed my picks. This week, I am doing it backward and picking the teams I WANT to win regardless of whether it is a good pick or not. Therefore, I looked at how the Commanders and Bills can win.
NFL Championship Weekend Picks
Washington beats Philadelphia
Philadelphia has an advantage in the trenches and that looks like too much for Washington to overcome. The Commanders will be missing RG Sam Cosmi and will likely have a hard time with DT Jalen Carter. The Eagle offensive line is also adept at opening gaping holes for superstar RB Saquon Barkley, too.
In an article on A to Z Sports, four of five experts pick the Eagles because of their advantage along the lines, Barkley's dominance and the standard belief that they have the "best 53 man" roster in the NFL. Nick Roesch, however, likes the Commanders because he feels Daniels will out-produce Hurts. Hurts has a gimpy knee that will likely further limit is unimpressive passing production and Daniels is just on an historic heater.
Washington is one of those teams that has captured lightning in a bottle and keeps exceeding expectations - they will do so again Sunday. - COMMANDERS
Buffalo beats Kansas City
If you want to pick a Kansas City game correctly, you pick the Chiefs. If they end up winning the Super Bowl this year, they would be the first team ever to accomplish a three-peat. According to Sal Maiorana of the Rochester (NY) Democrat and Chronicle, Buffalo, when quarterbacked by Josh Allen, has four regular season victories over Kansas City, but have dropped three postseason matchups to Pat Mahomes and company.
More from Maiorana, the Bills have two quality tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox and the Chiefs have struggled to contain tight ends. Buffalo has averaged 178.5 rushing yards against two highly rated rush defenses in the playoffs, the Ravens (#1) and Broncos (#3), and should continue to do so against the Chiefs 8th rated rush defense. Finally, the last time Mahomes threw an interception was Nov. 17 against Buffalo when LB Terrell Bernard and S Taylor Rapp each grabbed one.
It's just time for Kansas City to be stopped, hopefully. - BILLS
The Black Crowes at the MGM National Harbor Hotel and Casino
This was just an awesome experience for me. I was hyped for days following. The Black Crowes hit me in the feels with their first album, Shake Your Money Maker in 1990, but I haven't seen them since February of 1991.
Eight of the 15 songs they played were from that debut album and their second album, The Southern Harmony and Musical Companion, which is one of my favorite albums of all time. While I anticipated they might lack energy and power due to their advanced age, that was not a problem. Lead singer Chris Robinson's pipes still stand the test of time and his brother, Rich Robinson, can still strum a good guitar.
That was the first time for the HOTPO at the MGM National Harbor for a concert. The logistics are a breeze - a short drive from the HOTPO headquarters and tons of parking. I would say the venue lacks a little in that you have to leave the auditorium to grab a tasty beverage and there are no tables and chairs to facilitate hanging out near the bars prior to the concert.
According to their website, the Crowes only have four more dates on this tour - Inglewood, California; Boston; Eau Claire, Wisconsin; and Floyd County, Virginia (checks Google Maps and calendar). Not much for midwest subscribers of the HOTPO, but I would consider making a trip to see these guys if you ever liked their stuff. Just a tremendous show.
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