Division Round Playoff Picks w/Girls HS Basketball Update
Last weekend was as spectacular weekend of football and this week will challenge it with four NFL playoff games over the weekend and the College Football Playoff championship game Monday night.
With a federal holiday Monday, many fans can stay up as late as they want Sunday to watch the final NFL playoff game, too.
NFL Division Round Playoff Picks
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5): Houston surprised fans with a dominating win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, 32-12. Kansas City, as the AFC #1 seed, had the luxury of a weekend off. Since the Chiefs rested starters in Week 18 of the regular season, QB Pat Mahomes hasn't thrown a pass since Christmas Eve so there is the possibility of rust, but they should be rested and well-schemed up to combat the Texans.
I thought Houston QB C.J. Stroud would have trouble against Los Angeles last week because the Chargers provide a lot of pressure and Stroud usually performs poorly when pressured in the pocket. That did not come to pass as he had a solid day completing 22-33 passes for 282 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Jason Logan of Covers.com reports Kansas City ranks fourth in blitz frequency and fifth in pressure rate per drop back, so Stroud will have to bring it again this week.
The Chiefs haven't been blowing anyone out all season - they have only the 9th best scoring margin (59 points), just ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals and behind the Washington Commanders. The Texans also have the 6th ranked defense in yards allowed and could affect a rested, but rusty Mahomes. I just can't get passed a rushed Stroud, on a cold day, on the road and against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that has had extra time to rest and prepare.
Pick: CHIEFS
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5): Talk about surprises - Washington went on the road last week, with a rookie quarterback, and gained a 23-20 victory over the NFC South division champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the "Doink Heard Round the World." Detroit, like Kansas City, had a bye last week due to having earned the NFC #1 seed, but the extra rest won't be bringing back any of the 12 (!!!) defenders that are on the injured reserve. Even with all those injuries, the Lions have still managed to field the 7th best defense in points allowed.
I predicted that the Commanders inability to manufacture a running game outside of QB Jayden Daniels would doom them against the Buccaneers. Their running game last week was anemic - running backs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson only managed 43 yards on 18 carries, but they still secured the win with Daniels as their leading rusher at 36 yards on 13 carries. The Lions have the 5th best rushing defense with respect to yards allowed, so Daniels will have to provide the rushing yards along with the passing yards again (You are seeing a Saturday trend, right?).
According to Andrew Shaver and other reporters at PFF, Washington has run 61 percent of their plays out of a no-huddle offense and the Detroit defense has performed poorly against "no-huddle rushing attacks, earning the third-lowest team run-defense grade (43.7) in such situations." If the Commanders can manufacture a legitimate no-huddle running game against the injury ravaged Lions, they might have a chance. But the Lions have been the best NFL team all year and you just have to think they and their long-suffering fans (never been to a Super Bowl, last won the NFL championship in 1957) are finally due for a Super Bowl run.
Pick: LIONS
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6): If you look at seasonal team stats, this game is a mismatch. Measured in yards, Los Angeles has the 15th ranked offense facing the top-rated defense of Philadelphia, and the Rams 26th ranked defense is tasked with slowing the Eagles 8th ranked offense. A six-point spread is pretty hefty, too, but this doesn't quite feel like a mismatch.
The Eagles defeated the Rams 37-20 the Sunday before Thanksgiving in Los Angeles on the strength of their running game that totaled a ridiculous 314 yards. On that day, QB Jalen Hurts did his thing - minimized, but high percentage passing mixed in with some effective quarterback runs (15-22, 179 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT w/39 rushing yards). Hurts had a similarly effective, low-production day in their 22-10 victory the Green Packers in Philadelphia.
After that November loss, the Rams went on a five-game winning streak before resting their starters in Week 18. The Eagles under coach Nick Sirianni are 2-0 versus the Rams under coach Sean McVay, according to Mike Greger of the Philly Sports Network, and it seems like everyone says Philadelphia has the "most talented 53-man roster" in the league. But...I think McVay schemes it up, Rams get an early lead and the maturing Los Angeles defensive line gets after Hurts (sacked 38 times, 11th highest total) whose low-octane passing won't be enough to fuel a comeback.
Pick: RAMS
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills: This is the main event - the one you have all been waiting for! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the top two MVP candidates and they both have one glaring absence on their resumes - a Super Bowl appearance. Baltimore lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year and Buffalo lost to Kansas City two of the last three years in the Divisional Round after losing to them in the AFC Championship game following the 2020 season.
Clearly both of these teams would like to defeat the Chiefs on the road to a Super Bowl, but they have to win this round first. Both of these quarterbacks can sling it, run it and make few mistakes (INTs: Jackson, 4; Allen, 6). With two great and evenly matched quarterbacks meeting, the run game will probably make the difference and there is a decided difference there.
The Bills RB James Cook leads their 9th ranked rushing attack and had a great day in the Wild Card round, running for 120 yards and 1 TD on 23 carries. The Ravens RB Derrick Henry is just a freak, however, pacing the top rushing game in the league and running for 186 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries last week. Additionally, Buffalo has the 12th ranked rushing defense and Baltimore has the league's best rushing defense.
Pick: RAVENS
Girls HS Basketball Update
Folks, you need to get out and come see the West Potomac (Alexandria, Va.) High School girls basketball team. The Wolverines have been a very good team over the last few years, but they are taking it to another level this year. They moved to 13-0 Thursday night with a resounding 68-25 victory over the Lake Braddock Bruins, as reported on MaxPreps.com.
The HOTPO was in the house for the Lake Braddock game and West Potomac was very impressive. Nicky Wolcott of the Washington Post in a recent article highlighted the team has eight returning players and coach Joe Petrucelli is finding ways to get contributions from throughout the roster. That was evident Thursday, as the starters were pulled before the half after building a 55-2 lead.
This team has multiple shooters adept at draining three-point shots, multiple ball handlers that can handle pressure and their defense was just astonishing versus the Bruins. Wolverine defenders were victimizing opposing ball handlers and jumping in every passing lane for steals. Their defensive effort accelerated their already great offense for another blowout - West Po is winning games by an average of 34.4 points.
West Potomac plays next at Robinson. Jan. 21 and their next home game will be Jan. 24 versus West Springfield.
If you are in the DMV, you have got to come see these ladies play hoops!
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