NFL Draft Preview

The NFL Draft is Quarterback Focused, Again

Since the Monday following the Super Bowl, D.C. sports radio has been heavily tilted toward NFL draft analysis. That makes sense since the Washington Commanders have the second overall pick and need a quarterback. This is supposedly a good year for quarterbacks with five most likely getting selected in the first round Thursday night in Detroit. 

Most draftniks anticipate the Chicago Bears drafting USC QB Caleb Williams with the first pick, even though Chicago is seen as quarterback graveyard and many question whether Williams wants to be a Bear. DMV sports media can't come to a consensus on which way the Commanders will go between LSU QB Jayden Daniels or UNC QB Drake Maye, although it seems like Daniels is the favorite. After that, there has been speculation the New England Patriots will take whichever of the two the Commanders don't choose, reach for Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, or trade down in the first round. 

I do not subscribe to the standard belief that a team MUST have a franchise quarterback and that you MUST draft the best quarterback available when they have a high draft pick. Remember, Brock Purdy piloted the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl last year. Quarterbacks have recently proven to be injury-prone and inconsistent with seven suffering season-ending injuries last year and 63 different quarterbacks getting starts last year due to various reasons, according to reporting by Cydney Henderson of the USA Today and Barry Werner of Yahoo Sports, respectively. 

Maybe having an above average backup is as important for a franchise as having a "franchise" quarterback selected in the first round. If you review the list at the bottom of this blog that shows all QBs selected in the first round in the last ten years, you will find that teams have a 16 percent chance of selecting a great QB, a 25 percent chance of securing a good one and a 59 percent chance attaining a turd hurler for their roster when picking a QB in the first round. Teams often talk themselves into reaching for a less talented QB when trading back for additional picks would more often serve their team better. 

Five QBs likely will be selected in the first round this year. Three of them will likely be awful. Statistics show that is the case - definitely take a look at the list below, compiled from Draft History. 

Indianapolis Colts Draft Preview

The Colts did not raise eyebrows in the free agency period that precedes the draft, according to a breakdown by Stephen Holder of ESPN. They signed reigning NFL Comeback Player of the Year QB Joe Flacco (a backup QB that took the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs, hello!) and DT Raekwon Davis to add needed depth to their interior defensive line. I am enthusiastic that they signed many of their own free agents (WR Michael Pittman, LB Zaire Franklin, CB Kenny Moore II, S Julian Blackmon, DT Grover Stewart and DE Tyquan Lewis) which means quality veterans are optimistic about the team's chances and want to be a part of it. 

James Boyd of The Athletic says the Colts need help at cornerback, wide receiver and edge rusher. Ryan Heckman of Horseshoe Heroes blog predicts Indianapolis will trade up to grab LSU WR Malik Neighbors in the first round and then select Oregon CB Khyree Jackson in round three, after sacrificing their second round pick to move up for Neighbors. I just hope they avoid drafting Georgia TE Brock Bowers (I hear his skill set won't translate and he is a horrible blocker) and ensure they add offensive line depth, while covering down on the needs highlighted by Boyd. 

Collegiate/High School Track Update

HOTPO covered the Duke Invitational, April 12. I got to see a former HOTPO staff member run a 5K under the lights in a Power 5 conference meet. I couldn't find a formal write-up on the meet, but our "little guy" put together a solid effort and a report from earlier in the season can be found here. 

Also, we had another HOTPO staff member (in blue) knock out an 800m personal record Wednesday at West Springfield High School in northern Virginia. 

The Close Out: don't miss the draft on Thursday - will report on that next week (hopefully). The Pacers and Capitals both made the playoffs (beginning this weekend) and the HOTPO staff has tickets to Game 4 of the Capitals/Rangers matchup. 

Appendix: First Round Quarterback Selections, 2014-23

Key: Year

Overall Pick - Name, Team - Rating (Great, Good, Undecided, Bad, Bust)

2023

• 1 - Bryce Young, CAR - Bust (maybe an early judgmental call, but it is what it is)
• 2 - C.J. Stroud, HOU - Great
• 4 - Anthony Richardson, IND - Undecided

2022

• 20 - Kenny Picket - Bust

2021 

• 1 - Trevor Lawrence, JAX - Good (and that might be generous)
• 2 - Zach Wilson, NYJ - Bust
• 3 - Trey Lance, SF - Bust
• 11 - Justin Fields, CHI - Undecided
• 15 - Mac Jones, NE - Bad 

2020

• 1 - Joe Burrow, CIN - Great
• 5 - Tua Tagovailoa, MIA - Good
• 6 - Justin Herbert, LAC - Good
• 26 - Jordan Love, GB - Good

2019 

• 1 - Kyler Murray, ARI - Bad
• 6 - Daniel Jones, NYG - Undecided (but likely a bust when given more time)

2018

• 1 - Baker Mayfield, CLE - Good
• 3 - Sam Darnold, NYJ - Bust
• 7 - Josh Allen, BUF - Great
• 10 - Josh Rosen, ARI - Bust
• 32 - Lamar Jackson, BAL - Great

2017 

• 2 - Mitchell Trubisky, CHI - Bust
• 10 - Patrick Mahomes, KC - Great
• 12 - DeShaun Watson, HOU - Good (but was great for a minute, till, you know, happy endings and stuff)

2016 

• 1 - Jared Goff, LAR - Good
• 2 - Carson Wentz, PHI - Bad
• 26 - Paxton Lynch, DEN - Bust

2015

• 1 - Jameis Winston, TB - Bad
• 2 - Marcus Mariota, TEN - Bad

2014

• 3 - Blake Bortles, JAX - Bad
• 22 - Johnny Manziel, CLE - Bust
• 32 - Teddy Bridgewater, MIN - Good