NFL Draft First Round Review

What were these people thinking?

The biggest shock I got out of the NFL Draft was when I turned on the TV and saw the monstrous mass of humanity swarming around the outdoor venue. 

An estimated 275,000 people attended the draft in Detroit Thursday night setting a new one-day high for the three-day event. The previous one-day high was 200,000 at the Nashville draft in 2019, according to Paul Egan of the Detroit Free-Press. Earlier in the week, the Free-Press estimated that Detroit would see an overall economic impact of greater than $160,000 from hosting the draft. 

ESPN made sure to focus on fans a lot during the draft and that is when you really start wondering what these people were thinking. Mary Clarke of the USA Today captured and collated all of the crazy costumes, face paint and rabid intensity of the fanatical attendees. It looked like a Blue Collar Burning Man or Post-Apocalyptic Rocky Horror Picture show and I highly doubt the majority of the attending maniacs had any idea who the "best available" was when their team was drafting. 

Undeniable that the NFL has the greatest gravitational pull of any sport in America, but I think I will stay clear of that event. No plans on sending the HOTPO staff to cover in-person. 

What were the Falcons thinking?

That Atlanta Falcons picking Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick absolutely stunned me. I am serious. I am pretty sure my jaw actually dropped open and I sat silently frozen staring at the broadcast for maybe an entire minute.

In the offseason, the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract to be their quarterback. Penix is already 24 after playing six years of college football and will be 28 with only one year remaining on his rookie contract by the time the Cousins contract expires. Dave Choate of Falcoholic agrees with me grading this pick an "F" - it makes no sense and implies Atlanta leadership is confused about their strategic vision. 

Here is what I am thinking?

Thursday was the second time that six quarterbacks were drafted in the first round and the first time six quarterbacks were taken in the first 12 picks. This is group-think overreach. Statistics show that three of these six quarterbacks - at a minimum - will be failures.  

In the first three picks, the Chicago Bears selected Caleb Williams from USC, the Washington Commanders selected Jayden Daniels from LSU and the New England Patriots selected Drake Maye from UNC. Not sure who will succeed or fail of this group, but Chicago has never developed a franchise quarterback IN MODERN FOOTBALL HISTORY, the Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Klingsbury drafted and failed to develop Kyler Murray while in Arizona and the Patriots are led by an untested, rookie coach in Jerod Mayo. I feel pretty confident estimating that two of the top three do not sign a second contract with the team that drafted them (i.e. - fail). 

This overreach for quarterbacks and offense in general, led to the first defensive player not being selected until the 15th overall pick (DE Laiatu Latu, by the Indianapolis Colts). The offensive focus early meant that quality defenders slipped to draft positions below their pre-draft projected value. More than likely, some of these first-round defensive selections will outperform expectations. 

Defensive end Jared Verse (FSU/LA Rams), CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo/Philadelphia), CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama/Detroit) and CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson/Baltimore) were selected 19th, 22nd, 24th, and 30th, respectively. Each was selected at a position at least eight picks later than where they were projected prior to the draft, when compared to the CBS Sports 2024 Draft Prospect Rankings. All four of the teams drafting the aforementioned defenders have either been in the Super Bowl or a conference championship game within the last three years. 

The successful teams built smartly toward more success last night, while the weaker teams stayed weak by overreaching for offensive help. 

Packed Sports Calendar

Me and some buddies have debated before over what is the best time of the year for sports fans and it usually becomes an argument between October and April. October has the MLB playoffs, football in full swing and the NBA and NHL initiating their seasons. Right now, we have the NBA and NHL playoffs, MLB initiating its season and that little gem of the NFL Draft (and we recently had the Masters, as well). 

Being perpetually understaffed here at the HOTPO headquarters, Sundays in this time period can be a glorious overload. Once weekend chores were complete Sunday, I started by watching the end of the Reds game while flipping to the Capitals/Rangers Game 1 during commercials. After the Reds game ended and the Capitals went to first intermission tied, I transitioned to radio coverage at the smoker where I prepped a sirloin for dinner. Following dinner and more chores, I was able to end the day watching the Pacers/Bucks Game 1, which went very poorly for the "home" team. 

It didn't end well for two of the three teams we cover, but I nailed the sirloin. 

The Close Out: Game 3 for both Caps/Rangers and Pacers/Bucks tonight with both Game 4's on Sunday. The MLB season is starting to take its early shape with the Reds competitive, but frustrating and the Nats non-competitive with flashes of potential. Will try to cover playoffs next and then get to some sort of early-season MLB summary.