Football is Back!
College football got going in earnest this weekend, and many fans of the professional side of the sport devoted some time to drafting their fantasy lineups over the holiday three-day.
I missed a lot of the opening Saturday of college football, because I was drafting my fantasy football team in my local league.
Since I didn't get to watch much of the key college football games this weekend, let's do a quick review of the collegiate action. Then we can get into my NFL picks that I promised you.
Duke 34, Army 14: Army led college football in rushing last year with 363.2 yards per game, according to Joedy McCreary of the Associated Press. Friday night in Durham, N.C., the Blue Devils out-gained the Black Knights on the ground 184 yards to 168. An historically disciplined team that does not get penalized much, Army was whistled for seven penalties for 69 yards. Duke committed four penalties for 30 yards. The Black Knights also put the ball on the turf five times, losing two of those fumbles to the Blue Devil defense. Sal Interdonato of the Middletown (NY) Times-Herald Record believes Army needs to get back to the running game, eliminate the fumbles, and play more aggressively on defense.
Indiana 38, Florida International University 28: The Hoosiers went to Florida and got a road victory. Not against Miami, or Florida State, or University of Central Florida, but it was against an NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision team and it counts. Zach Osterman of the Indianapolis Star says steady quarterback play and an opportunistic defense or to thank for IU starting the 2018 season 1-0.
Maryland 34, No. 23 Texas 29: The Maryland football team has dealt with issues bigger than winning games after losing a teammate during offseason conditioning. Winning their second straight game against traditional power Texas will definitely help the program move on from their recent tragedy. In the land of big cattle and big football expectations, new Longhorn head coach Tom Herman will probably be on the hot seat after his first game loss. Alex Kirshner and Harry Lyles, Jr. of SBation provided great clips of Maryland true freshman Jeshaun Jones scoring three TDs against Texas Saturday.
No. 12 Notre Dame 24, No. 14 Michigan 17: the Fighting Irish got off to a great start with their victory at home over a Top 25 opponent. Of course, that opponent from Michigan has lost 17 straight road games against Top 25 teams, and is now 8-8 in the last 16 games coached by Jim Harbaugh. Aaron McMann of mlive.com quoted Harbaugh as stating there were "things to build on" from the loss. I think Harbaugh needs to start building on that old resume.
LSU 33, Miami 17: Big game, right here...not close, though. No. 8 Miami has to figure out how to get that offense running after getting throttled by No. 25 LSU. The boys from the Bayou just need to keep doing what they are doing under coach Ed Orgeron. Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated admits he did not see a Tiger victory coming out of this game.
Big game tonight! No. 20 Virginia Tech heads to Tallahassee, Florida to match up against No. 19 Florida State. Time to push this thing out, prepare the kids for the school week, and sneak some peeks at that game.
2018 NFL Playoff Participants and Super Bowl Prediction
We have spent the last month looking closely at two NFL divisions a week. It is now time to make actual predictions and sign our names to it.
You can't pipe up after the Super Bowl saying, "I called it," unless you called it before Week 1. And by call it, I mean in print and with more than two witnesses.
Woah, woah, slow down! Don't start putting down your 12 playoff teams just yet. Let's look at some history and see if we can find some trends.
I thought I had heard somewhere that roughly six out of the 12 teams that make the playoffs one year will make it the next year. That sounds about right, but let's verify that. Take a look at the chart below.
In the chart, you see the NFL playoff teams, by conference, in seed order (1st through 6th), for the last 11 years. The teams highlighted in yellow are the teams that were playoff teams the year previous. The number at the bottom is the total number of repeat playoff teams for that particular year.
Over that 10-year span on average, 6.3 teams of the 12 playoff teams each year were in the playoffs the year prior. So, yes, about six teams per year. And just eye ball that chart -- the AFC has supplied more repeat playoff teams than the NFC on a consistent basis.
Word of warning: do NOT pick six of last year's playoff teams, and then pick six newcomers. If you are wrong on any of your six repeats, than you are most likely well under 50 percent for your playoff picks. It is smarter to play it safe and pick all of last year's playoff teams to repeat -- that is an almost guaranteed 50 percent or better performance, but that is no fun.
The next chart contains the playoff predictions for this year by the experts (ESPN, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, and Dan Head) with repeat performers in yellow again. They all predict more than six repeat performers and three of the five experts picked nine repeat performers from last year's slate. That is safe and smart prognostication.
What does that all mean? Twelve teams make the playoffs each year, and at least six will have played in the playoffs the year before. When you make your picks, pick more than six of last year's playoff teams...pretty simple really.
So who am I picking (repeat playoff performers in bold)?
AFC East: no brainer -- New England Patriots
AFC North: I said these guys are legit Super Bowl contenders -- Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: the one team with a healthy QB (and a superior defense) -- Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC West: division is regressing -- Los Angeles Chargers (still feels funny typing LA for that team)
Wild Cards: Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts -- Bengals have a ton of talent and a healthy Andrew Luck is a game changer
Note: that is three repeat performers, under the AFC statistical norm...have only had this few repeat performers three times in last 10 years -- WHAT AM I DOING?
NFC East: no repeat winners in this division since 2004, but I am picking one -- Philadelphia Eagles (You heard me!)
NFC North: QB Aaron Rodgers was hurt most of last year -- Green Bay Packers
NFC South: struggled mightily on this one -- New Orleans Saints
NFC West: this team went all in this offseason -- Los Angeles Rams
Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers -- heart throb QB Jimmy Garappolo had the 49ers surging and hearts fluttering by the end of last year, and Vikings probably improved at QB
Note: that is four repeat performers, over the NFC statistical norm...haven't had four repeat performers once in the last 10 years -- WHAT AM I DOING?
I got a little crazy there, but I am sticking with my seven repeat performers. To be honest, I haven't studied the NFC like I have the AFC. I feel real comfortable with the Packers and 49ers making a jump forward, but not so good about the Eagles and Saints staying atop their divisions.
My buddy Dan Head predicted an all-LA Super Bowl -- Rams vs. Chargers, with the Rams winning big. I will see him and raise him one -- I will go with an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl -- Eagles vs. Steelers, with the Steelers winning. My gut tells me we are both super wrong.
I missed a lot of the opening Saturday of college football, because I was drafting my fantasy football team in my local league.
Gentlemen of the SOFA (Slightly Overweight Fathers of Alexandria) Fantasy Football league prepare for action Saturday just prior to the start of the annual in-person draft. Commissioner Chris Pedigo (back left) can be seen handling the microphone with pre-start instructions. Thanks to DJ Bob Artman for bringing the sound system, and Bob Malloy for hosting a great event.
Since I didn't get to watch much of the key college football games this weekend, let's do a quick review of the collegiate action. Then we can get into my NFL picks that I promised you.
Duke 34, Army 14: Army led college football in rushing last year with 363.2 yards per game, according to Joedy McCreary of the Associated Press. Friday night in Durham, N.C., the Blue Devils out-gained the Black Knights on the ground 184 yards to 168. An historically disciplined team that does not get penalized much, Army was whistled for seven penalties for 69 yards. Duke committed four penalties for 30 yards. The Black Knights also put the ball on the turf five times, losing two of those fumbles to the Blue Devil defense. Sal Interdonato of the Middletown (NY) Times-Herald Record believes Army needs to get back to the running game, eliminate the fumbles, and play more aggressively on defense.
Indiana 38, Florida International University 28: The Hoosiers went to Florida and got a road victory. Not against Miami, or Florida State, or University of Central Florida, but it was against an NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision team and it counts. Zach Osterman of the Indianapolis Star says steady quarterback play and an opportunistic defense or to thank for IU starting the 2018 season 1-0.
Maryland 34, No. 23 Texas 29: The Maryland football team has dealt with issues bigger than winning games after losing a teammate during offseason conditioning. Winning their second straight game against traditional power Texas will definitely help the program move on from their recent tragedy. In the land of big cattle and big football expectations, new Longhorn head coach Tom Herman will probably be on the hot seat after his first game loss. Alex Kirshner and Harry Lyles, Jr. of SBation provided great clips of Maryland true freshman Jeshaun Jones scoring three TDs against Texas Saturday.
No. 12 Notre Dame 24, No. 14 Michigan 17: the Fighting Irish got off to a great start with their victory at home over a Top 25 opponent. Of course, that opponent from Michigan has lost 17 straight road games against Top 25 teams, and is now 8-8 in the last 16 games coached by Jim Harbaugh. Aaron McMann of mlive.com quoted Harbaugh as stating there were "things to build on" from the loss. I think Harbaugh needs to start building on that old resume.
LSU 33, Miami 17: Big game, right here...not close, though. No. 8 Miami has to figure out how to get that offense running after getting throttled by No. 25 LSU. The boys from the Bayou just need to keep doing what they are doing under coach Ed Orgeron. Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated admits he did not see a Tiger victory coming out of this game.
Big game tonight! No. 20 Virginia Tech heads to Tallahassee, Florida to match up against No. 19 Florida State. Time to push this thing out, prepare the kids for the school week, and sneak some peeks at that game.
2018 NFL Playoff Participants and Super Bowl Prediction
We have spent the last month looking closely at two NFL divisions a week. It is now time to make actual predictions and sign our names to it.
You can't pipe up after the Super Bowl saying, "I called it," unless you called it before Week 1. And by call it, I mean in print and with more than two witnesses.
Woah, woah, slow down! Don't start putting down your 12 playoff teams just yet. Let's look at some history and see if we can find some trends.
I thought I had heard somewhere that roughly six out of the 12 teams that make the playoffs one year will make it the next year. That sounds about right, but let's verify that. Take a look at the chart below.
In the chart, you see the NFL playoff teams, by conference, in seed order (1st through 6th), for the last 11 years. The teams highlighted in yellow are the teams that were playoff teams the year previous. The number at the bottom is the total number of repeat playoff teams for that particular year.
Over that 10-year span on average, 6.3 teams of the 12 playoff teams each year were in the playoffs the year prior. So, yes, about six teams per year. And just eye ball that chart -- the AFC has supplied more repeat playoff teams than the NFC on a consistent basis.
Word of warning: do NOT pick six of last year's playoff teams, and then pick six newcomers. If you are wrong on any of your six repeats, than you are most likely well under 50 percent for your playoff picks. It is smarter to play it safe and pick all of last year's playoff teams to repeat -- that is an almost guaranteed 50 percent or better performance, but that is no fun.
The next chart contains the playoff predictions for this year by the experts (ESPN, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, and Dan Head) with repeat performers in yellow again. They all predict more than six repeat performers and three of the five experts picked nine repeat performers from last year's slate. That is safe and smart prognostication.
What does that all mean? Twelve teams make the playoffs each year, and at least six will have played in the playoffs the year before. When you make your picks, pick more than six of last year's playoff teams...pretty simple really.
So who am I picking (repeat playoff performers in bold)?
AFC East: no brainer -- New England Patriots
AFC North: I said these guys are legit Super Bowl contenders -- Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: the one team with a healthy QB (and a superior defense) -- Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC West: division is regressing -- Los Angeles Chargers (still feels funny typing LA for that team)
Wild Cards: Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts -- Bengals have a ton of talent and a healthy Andrew Luck is a game changer
Note: that is three repeat performers, under the AFC statistical norm...have only had this few repeat performers three times in last 10 years -- WHAT AM I DOING?
NFC East: no repeat winners in this division since 2004, but I am picking one -- Philadelphia Eagles (You heard me!)
NFC North: QB Aaron Rodgers was hurt most of last year -- Green Bay Packers
NFC South: struggled mightily on this one -- New Orleans Saints
NFC West: this team went all in this offseason -- Los Angeles Rams
Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers -- heart throb QB Jimmy Garappolo had the 49ers surging and hearts fluttering by the end of last year, and Vikings probably improved at QB
Note: that is four repeat performers, over the NFC statistical norm...haven't had four repeat performers once in the last 10 years -- WHAT AM I DOING?
I got a little crazy there, but I am sticking with my seven repeat performers. To be honest, I haven't studied the NFC like I have the AFC. I feel real comfortable with the Packers and 49ers making a jump forward, but not so good about the Eagles and Saints staying atop their divisions.
My buddy Dan Head predicted an all-LA Super Bowl -- Rams vs. Chargers, with the Rams winning big. I will see him and raise him one -- I will go with an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl -- Eagles vs. Steelers, with the Steelers winning. My gut tells me we are both super wrong.
I am not super-wrong. Although I haven’t yet broken out tarot cards by way of predicting the future (though I did consider it), I feel very good about my picks.
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