NFL Week 17 Cheat Sheet
A lot of people spend the holidays eating the finest meats and cheeses, sleeping in, and taking a breather from physical fitness. I know I have slapped some port wine cheese ball on some crackers, hammered too many Fair Winds Howling Gale IPAs, and missed a few days of strenuous activity myself.
The holidays are also a time where some young men and women go to sweaty wrestling rooms for two hours a day, and then hit at least one tournament where they fight five times in a five hour span. I was fortunate enough to spend two days in such venues watching my son and his cousin battle their peers in the squared circle.
The fitness level and grit that I witnessed this week were astonishing. I am incredibly impressed by the number and capability of the wrestlers in the Fairfax County public school system. These kids are super-tough young adults that are definitely building toward future success in their lives. My son wrestled eight matches over two days, and my nephew wrestled five times in his one-day tournament.
Those two boys aren't perfect, but their willingness and desire to compete in a martial art is...I don't know. Beautiful? Awesome? I flat out love it.
Let's do the cheat sheet!
Week 17 is the toughest week of games to predict.
Many playoff seeds are locked, and teams with a secure playoff spot will often rest key players.
Some coaches are on their way out, and teams want to send them out with a victory.
Players that will be entering free agency in the offseason want to show their skills one more time before they hit the open market.
There are many variables beyond player talent that will influence the games this weekend. The better football team may only win half the time today.
To secure the necessary victories and do well in your pick 'em league, you have to sometimes go with your gut, and get a little lucky.
NFL playoff scenarios in that last week are complicated. The league office moved most of the games with playoff implications to the 4 p.m. time slot this year, too. You can nap during the early afternoon, but make sure you are locked in for the late games.
When you get confused about where a team stands with regard to advancing to the playoffs, refer to his NFL.com handy playoff primer.
Cleveland Browns vs. (-7.0) Pittsburgh Steelers: Both teams have a lot to play for in this AFC North rivalry. Cleveland desperately wants to avoid being the second-ever 0-16 team. Pittsburgh could still secure the AFC #1 seed with a win, and a New England Patriots loss to the New York Jets. I am seeing rumors that the Steelers will not play QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB LeVeon Bell the entire game. The Steelers are also 0-4 against-the-spread in their last four games following a win (they won last week), but 4-1 in their last five home games, according to Chris Ruffolo of SportsChatPlace. There are reasons to pick the Browns here, but I just can't do it. -- STEELERS
Green Bay Packers vs. (-6.5) Detroit Lions: Detroit got knocked out of playoff contention with a 26-17 loss last week to the Cinncinnati Bengals that must have been playing hard for out-going coach Marvin Lewis. Lions coach Jim Caldwell is definitely on the hot seat, and likely to be gone next year. Both teams are playing out disappointing seasons. Is the biggest motivation here sending Caldwell out with a home win? Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has had a great year, and the Green Bay pass defense is ranked 22nd compared to the Lions 6th rated pass offense. To make matters worse, the two starting Green Bay cornerbacks are banged up, and their two best pass rushers did not play last week, according to Jeremy Reisman of PrideofDetroit. -- LIONS
Chicago Bears vs. (-11.5) Minnesota Vikings: I wrote and posted this cheat sheet, and then realized I hadn't written a capsule on this game. This is a forgettable game. Vikings can gain a first-round playoff bye with a win today. The Bears are improving, but still awful. -- VIKINGS
Dallas Cowboys vs. (+3.0) Philadelphia Eagles: The 8-7 Cowboys are a three-point road favorite over the 13-2 Eagles. Crazy, right? No, Philadelphia has already clinched the NFC #1 seed -- they have nothing to play for Sunday. Zach Berman of Philly.com thinks the Eagles will focus on avoiding injuries, and going deep in the depth chart to get bench warmers some needed repetitions, including backup QB Nate Sudfeld (former Washington Redskin and IU grad) who has never played a game in a Philly uniform. -- COWBOYS
Houston Texans vs. (-5.5) Indianapolis Colts: Both of these coaches could be unemployed before they sit down for New Year's Day dinner. The loser of this game will be last place in the AFC South. Indianapolis has lost six straight, two of them by two scores or more. Houston has lost five straight, and the last four by two scores or more. The Texans lost by 38 to the Jacksonville Jaguars Dec. 17, and by 28 to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. I never pick the Colts to win, but I am going to do it this week. -- COLTS
NOTE: With the above game including two coaches in tenuous employment positions, this could come down to who can inspire his team most effectively. Say what you want about Colts coach Chuck Pagano, he has been inspirational at times in his tenure. I am convinced Texans coach Bill O'Brien couldn't inspire an incontinent toddler to fill a diaper. See ya, Chuck -- keep beating cancer. All the best to you and yours in the New Year.
New York Jets vs. (-15.0) New England Patriots: Interesting nuance to this game...Patriots picked up LB James Harrison after the Steelers surprisingly released him this week. As mentioned above, New England still needs to win this game to maintain the AFC #1 seed, and ensure that Pittsburgh remains in the #2 slot. The Patriots have something to play for against a bad team so they will win. -- PATRIOTS
Washington Redskins vs. (+3.0) New York Giants: Under the "too little, too late" file, you will find the Redskins recent two-game win streak against bad teams. This week they have an awful team to play. If the Giants win this week, they can potentially hurt their draft position. New York already fired coach Ben McAdoo, so no fond farewell game is necessary. I didn't read anything this week that convinced me where to go on this game, but the local sports radio coverage makes me think Washington QB Kirk Cousins is locked in for this one. Found a great site, topbet.eu, that agrees with me in their write up, too. -- REDSKINS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens: With a win Sunday, Baltimore can lock up the #5 playoff seed in the AFC. Cincinnati already gifted departing (not confirmed, only rumors) coach Marvin Lewis his goodbye victory over the Lions last week. This one is simple. --RAVENS
Carolina Panthers vs. (-4.0) Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta doesn't need a win to advance to the playoffs, but a victory would ensures a ticket to the playoffs. Carolina can attain the #2 NFC playoff seed with a win, but they would also need a lot of help. The Panthers playoff position is virtually locked. An article by Max Henson of Panthers.com makes me think coach Ron Rivera is more interested in keeping QB Cam Newton healthy than beating the Falcons. -- FALCONS
The holidays are also a time where some young men and women go to sweaty wrestling rooms for two hours a day, and then hit at least one tournament where they fight five times in a five hour span. I was fortunate enough to spend two days in such venues watching my son and his cousin battle their peers in the squared circle.
The fitness level and grit that I witnessed this week were astonishing. I am incredibly impressed by the number and capability of the wrestlers in the Fairfax County public school system. These kids are super-tough young adults that are definitely building toward future success in their lives. My son wrestled eight matches over two days, and my nephew wrestled five times in his one-day tournament.
Those two boys aren't perfect, but their willingness and desire to compete in a martial art is...I don't know. Beautiful? Awesome? I flat out love it.
The two dudes on the outside have more than four years of combat, but the two dudes in the middle fought the most this past week.
Let's do the cheat sheet!
Week 17 is the toughest week of games to predict.
Many playoff seeds are locked, and teams with a secure playoff spot will often rest key players.
Some coaches are on their way out, and teams want to send them out with a victory.
Players that will be entering free agency in the offseason want to show their skills one more time before they hit the open market.
There are many variables beyond player talent that will influence the games this weekend. The better football team may only win half the time today.
To secure the necessary victories and do well in your pick 'em league, you have to sometimes go with your gut, and get a little lucky.
NFL playoff scenarios in that last week are complicated. The league office moved most of the games with playoff implications to the 4 p.m. time slot this year, too. You can nap during the early afternoon, but make sure you are locked in for the late games.
When you get confused about where a team stands with regard to advancing to the playoffs, refer to his NFL.com handy playoff primer.
Cleveland Browns vs. (-7.0) Pittsburgh Steelers: Both teams have a lot to play for in this AFC North rivalry. Cleveland desperately wants to avoid being the second-ever 0-16 team. Pittsburgh could still secure the AFC #1 seed with a win, and a New England Patriots loss to the New York Jets. I am seeing rumors that the Steelers will not play QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB LeVeon Bell the entire game. The Steelers are also 0-4 against-the-spread in their last four games following a win (they won last week), but 4-1 in their last five home games, according to Chris Ruffolo of SportsChatPlace. There are reasons to pick the Browns here, but I just can't do it. -- STEELERS
Green Bay Packers vs. (-6.5) Detroit Lions: Detroit got knocked out of playoff contention with a 26-17 loss last week to the Cinncinnati Bengals that must have been playing hard for out-going coach Marvin Lewis. Lions coach Jim Caldwell is definitely on the hot seat, and likely to be gone next year. Both teams are playing out disappointing seasons. Is the biggest motivation here sending Caldwell out with a home win? Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has had a great year, and the Green Bay pass defense is ranked 22nd compared to the Lions 6th rated pass offense. To make matters worse, the two starting Green Bay cornerbacks are banged up, and their two best pass rushers did not play last week, according to Jeremy Reisman of PrideofDetroit. -- LIONS
Chicago Bears vs. (-11.5) Minnesota Vikings: I wrote and posted this cheat sheet, and then realized I hadn't written a capsule on this game. This is a forgettable game. Vikings can gain a first-round playoff bye with a win today. The Bears are improving, but still awful. -- VIKINGS
Dallas Cowboys vs. (+3.0) Philadelphia Eagles: The 8-7 Cowboys are a three-point road favorite over the 13-2 Eagles. Crazy, right? No, Philadelphia has already clinched the NFC #1 seed -- they have nothing to play for Sunday. Zach Berman of Philly.com thinks the Eagles will focus on avoiding injuries, and going deep in the depth chart to get bench warmers some needed repetitions, including backup QB Nate Sudfeld (former Washington Redskin and IU grad) who has never played a game in a Philly uniform. -- COWBOYS
Houston Texans vs. (-5.5) Indianapolis Colts: Both of these coaches could be unemployed before they sit down for New Year's Day dinner. The loser of this game will be last place in the AFC South. Indianapolis has lost six straight, two of them by two scores or more. Houston has lost five straight, and the last four by two scores or more. The Texans lost by 38 to the Jacksonville Jaguars Dec. 17, and by 28 to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. I never pick the Colts to win, but I am going to do it this week. -- COLTS
NOTE: With the above game including two coaches in tenuous employment positions, this could come down to who can inspire his team most effectively. Say what you want about Colts coach Chuck Pagano, he has been inspirational at times in his tenure. I am convinced Texans coach Bill O'Brien couldn't inspire an incontinent toddler to fill a diaper. See ya, Chuck -- keep beating cancer. All the best to you and yours in the New Year.
New York Jets vs. (-15.0) New England Patriots: Interesting nuance to this game...Patriots picked up LB James Harrison after the Steelers surprisingly released him this week. As mentioned above, New England still needs to win this game to maintain the AFC #1 seed, and ensure that Pittsburgh remains in the #2 slot. The Patriots have something to play for against a bad team so they will win. -- PATRIOTS
Washington Redskins vs. (+3.0) New York Giants: Under the "too little, too late" file, you will find the Redskins recent two-game win streak against bad teams. This week they have an awful team to play. If the Giants win this week, they can potentially hurt their draft position. New York already fired coach Ben McAdoo, so no fond farewell game is necessary. I didn't read anything this week that convinced me where to go on this game, but the local sports radio coverage makes me think Washington QB Kirk Cousins is locked in for this one. Found a great site, topbet.eu, that agrees with me in their write up, too. -- REDSKINS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens: With a win Sunday, Baltimore can lock up the #5 playoff seed in the AFC. Cincinnati already gifted departing (not confirmed, only rumors) coach Marvin Lewis his goodbye victory over the Lions last week. This one is simple. --RAVENS
Carolina Panthers vs. (-4.0) Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta doesn't need a win to advance to the playoffs, but a victory would ensures a ticket to the playoffs. Carolina can attain the #2 NFC playoff seed with a win, but they would also need a lot of help. The Panthers playoff position is virtually locked. An article by Max Henson of Panthers.com makes me think coach Ron Rivera is more interested in keeping QB Cam Newton healthy than beating the Falcons. -- FALCONS
New Orleans Saints vs. (+6.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New Orleans has punched their ticket to the playoffs, but a win gets them the NFC South division title and an initial home playoff game. With Tampa Bay finishing out a 4-11 season, and not having won a game since before Thanksgiving, it is very possible head coach Dirk Koetter is coaching his last game on the Sun Coast. Ian Rapoport reported the relationship between Koetter and QB Jameis Winston was "not in a good place" early in December. I don't see the Buccaneers rising up for their coach, and halting their five-game losing streak. -- SAINTS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (-3.5) Denver Broncos: Kansas City has locked up the AFC West division title, and a first-round home playoff game. Chiefs coach Andy Reid has already said he will be sitting starting QB Alex Smith for rookie Pat Mahomes. Reid will probably rest more than his quarterback, too. Denver QB Paxton Lynch will get a rare start this week, and an opportunity to audition for next year. -- BRONCOS
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (-3.0) Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville is the AFC South division champion, but can't improve their playoff seed. Tennessee needs a win to make the playoffs, but they have needed that one win for three weeks and have failed to earn it. There are a lot of ins-and-outs in this one. These two could very well end up meeting next week in the playoffs no matter what happens in this game. I just have a gut feeling that the more desperate team will win. -- TITANS
Arizona Cardinals vs. (-9.0) Seattle Seahawks: The Cardinals have beaten the Seahawks the last two times in Seattle. Arizona coach Bruce Arians says Century Link is the Cardinals "home field." That is some good bulletin board material for a Seahawks team that needs to win and get a little help (a Panthers victory) to make the playoffs. -- SEAHAWKS
Buffalo Bills vs. (+2.0) Miami Dolphins: Buffalo needs a win, and some help to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL. I picked the Dolphins and QB Smokin' Jay Cutler to beat the Bills in Buffalo two weeks ago -- that was stupid. Since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has only lost (twice) to the Patriots. -- BILLS
Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers: San Diego needs to win, and get a little help from Jacksonville and Miami or Baltimore. The Chargers have won five out of their last six, and are playing like a playoff team. Matt Josephs of AthlonSports sees the Raiders as "a team with one less day to prepare for another road trip in a lost season." -- CHARGERS
San Francisco 49ers vs. (+4.5) Los Angeles Rams: Los Angeles will be the #3 or #4 NFC seed in the playoffs no matter what happens today. San Francisco is on a four-game winning streak since installing QB Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter, and looking to continue building positive momentum for 2018. -- 49ERS
Buffalo Bills vs. (+2.0) Miami Dolphins: Buffalo needs a win, and some help to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL. I picked the Dolphins and QB Smokin' Jay Cutler to beat the Bills in Buffalo two weeks ago -- that was stupid. Since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has only lost (twice) to the Patriots. -- BILLS
Just do yourself a favor and Google "Smokin' Jay Cutler."
Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers: San Diego needs to win, and get a little help from Jacksonville and Miami or Baltimore. The Chargers have won five out of their last six, and are playing like a playoff team. Matt Josephs of AthlonSports sees the Raiders as "a team with one less day to prepare for another road trip in a lost season." -- CHARGERS
San Francisco 49ers vs. (+4.5) Los Angeles Rams: Los Angeles will be the #3 or #4 NFC seed in the playoffs no matter what happens today. San Francisco is on a four-game winning streak since installing QB Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter, and looking to continue building positive momentum for 2018. -- 49ERS
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