NFL Week Five Cheat Sheet
Nationals Start Playoffs on the Wrong Foot, Naturally
We have discussed the playoff failures of D.C. professional sports teams in this space before. The Washington Nationals have won the National League East Division title four of the last six years, but are yet to win a single playoff series. They are on the same path again after losing 3-0 last night to the Chicago Cubs.
My son actually got to attend the game. While I caught portions of the game in a bar. He watched from the left field bleachers, while I watched from a high top table in a Hard Times Café. Don't you love the mural of the wolf howling at the moon?
NFL Week Five Picks
I did not do so well last week. I gambled on the Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants. All three lost by a total of seven points. That was almost a huge swing in my favor.
Most people, like me, had the Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars winning. All four lost. But, hey, I was rushed last week.
Let's slow it down and recommit to this effort.
Tennessee Titans vs. (no line) Miami Dolphins: This isn't an easy first game to pick. Miami played like poop last week and have only scored six points over the last two weeks. Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariotta to injury as they were getting curb-stomped by the Houston Texans. Both teams will rely on the run, and the Dolphins have the better rushing defense. -- DOLPHINS
San Francisco 49ers vs. (-1.5) Indianapolis Colts: Vegas won't even give Indianapolis the standard home-field, three-point margin against an 0-4 San Francisco team in the betting line. Colt QB Jacoby Brissett completed two passes for 15 yards in the second half last week in their blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks, 46-18. I told you in the Week Two Cheat Sheet that Colt's coach Chuck Pagano leads the league in 30-point losses since 2012 -- barely missed getting another last week. My team stinks, but I have been here before...many, many times. -- 49ERS
NOTE: Remember, I don't pick the Colts unless I feel absolutely certain they will win -- it's a superstition. I crafted sentences and data around the theory that my picking against Indianapolis will improve their chances for victory. Take the above pick for what it is worth.
Carolina Panthers vs (-2.5) Detroit Lions: I wavered on this one. Both teams have offenses that have under-performed to date, but Carolina got going last week. Both teams have good defenses, but the Panthers are rated higher. Regardless, I am going to stick with the home team. -- LIONS
Buffalo Bills vs (-3.0) Cincinnati Bengals: I have not had success picking visiting underdogs this year, 1-2. I am OK at picking the Bills game, 2-2. Two defenses in this game will make it a close affair. Buffalo has only allowed 54 points this year, 13.5 points per game, which is tops in the NFL. Cincinnati is third, however, at 16.75 point per game. I have missed the Bills pick the last two weeks, because I picked them to lose. Last week they won as a road dog against an Atlanta Falcons team that is much better than the Bengals. I am taking the visiting underdog.-- BILLS
Los Angeles Chargers vs (-3.0) New York Giants: The 0-4 Chargers have lost three games by three points or less. The 0-4 Giants have lost two games by three points or less. By that math, Los Angeles sucks just a little bit less. Let's take another road dog. I really hope this game is not televised in the D.C. market. -- CHARGERS
Arizona Cardinals vs. (-6.5) Philadelphia Eagles: Arizona is 2-2, but there two victories have been narrow margins over awful teams (See: Niners and Colts). Their two losses were double digit point differentials against the Cowboys and Lions. I feel another two-score loss coming on in Philly this weekend. -- EAGLES
Jacksonville Jaguars vs (-7.5) Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh RB LeVeon Bell missed a lot of training camp due to contract dispute. Many feel that had a lot to do with his slow start this year, but he hit midseason form last week with 144 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-9 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. How will Jacksonville stop Bell? They won't -- they have the worst run defense in the NFL. -- STEELERS
New York Jets vs (no line) Cleveland Browns: Prior to this season I thought the Browns were going to be bad, but were trending upward. I thought the Jets would be the worst team in the NFL with little prospects for improvement. Jeff Risdon of Browns Wire saw it similarly back in August as he predicted this to be Cleveland's easiest game on the schedule and one of the five games the Browns should expect to win. Two of those five games have already passed and Cleveland is still winless. -- JETS
Seattle Seahawks vs (1.5) Los Angeles Rams: Not many people would have anticipated the Rams would be leading the NFC West over the Seahawks. Los Angeles also has scored the second most points in the NFL with 142 after four games. My gut says the Rams aren't quite that good, and the Seahawks aren't as bad as they have looked. Oops, I just picked another road dog. -- SEAHAWKS
NOTE: OK, that's three road underdogs, and I still have four more games to pick. Let's remember this for Week Six, because I could be in for awful week of picks.
Baltimore Ravens vs. (-3.0) Oakland Raiders: The Raiders will be starting back QB E.J. Manuel, who has gone 6-11 as a starter in the NFL. Over the passed two seasons, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco isn't much better at 11-15. Both teams are on two-games losing streaks, but the Ravens have been downright non-competitive recently. They have lost their last two by a combined score of 16-70. -- RAIDERS
Green Bay Packers vs (-2.5) Dallas Cowboys: I just heard that the Cowboys defense gave up scores on nine of the last 11 possessions in a loss to the Rams last week. Green Bay also has the 6th ranked defense in the NFL. Look at me! I am like a degenerate gambler here. Taking the road dog, again. -- PACKERS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (no line) Houston Texans: Thank goodness there is no line on this game. Otherwise, this would most likely be another road dog pick for me. Houston has the 5th ranked defense in the NFL and rookie QB Deshaun Watson threw five touchdowns last week in a win over the Tennessee Titans, 57-14. Kansas City has been the best team in the NFL over the first four weeks, and rookies always have a hard time with consistency. -- CHIEFS
Minnesota Vikings vs. (+3.0) Chicago Bears: Minnesota keeps struggling with injuries. They lost QB Sam Bradford after Week One, and now they will be missing leading rusher RB Dalvin Cook. Chicago is going to debut rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky for this Monday night matchup. That's about the only thing of interest in this game. Monday is a good night to focus on the baseball playoffs. -- VIKINGS
We have discussed the playoff failures of D.C. professional sports teams in this space before. The Washington Nationals have won the National League East Division title four of the last six years, but are yet to win a single playoff series. They are on the same path again after losing 3-0 last night to the Chicago Cubs.
My son actually got to attend the game. While I caught portions of the game in a bar. He watched from the left field bleachers, while I watched from a high top table in a Hard Times Café. Don't you love the mural of the wolf howling at the moon?
NFL Week Five Picks
I did not do so well last week. I gambled on the Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants. All three lost by a total of seven points. That was almost a huge swing in my favor.
Most people, like me, had the Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars winning. All four lost. But, hey, I was rushed last week.
Let's slow it down and recommit to this effort.
Tennessee Titans vs. (no line) Miami Dolphins: This isn't an easy first game to pick. Miami played like poop last week and have only scored six points over the last two weeks. Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariotta to injury as they were getting curb-stomped by the Houston Texans. Both teams will rely on the run, and the Dolphins have the better rushing defense. -- DOLPHINS
San Francisco 49ers vs. (-1.5) Indianapolis Colts: Vegas won't even give Indianapolis the standard home-field, three-point margin against an 0-4 San Francisco team in the betting line. Colt QB Jacoby Brissett completed two passes for 15 yards in the second half last week in their blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks, 46-18. I told you in the Week Two Cheat Sheet that Colt's coach Chuck Pagano leads the league in 30-point losses since 2012 -- barely missed getting another last week. My team stinks, but I have been here before...many, many times. -- 49ERS
NOTE: Remember, I don't pick the Colts unless I feel absolutely certain they will win -- it's a superstition. I crafted sentences and data around the theory that my picking against Indianapolis will improve their chances for victory. Take the above pick for what it is worth.
Carolina Panthers vs (-2.5) Detroit Lions: I wavered on this one. Both teams have offenses that have under-performed to date, but Carolina got going last week. Both teams have good defenses, but the Panthers are rated higher. Regardless, I am going to stick with the home team. -- LIONS
Buffalo Bills vs (-3.0) Cincinnati Bengals: I have not had success picking visiting underdogs this year, 1-2. I am OK at picking the Bills game, 2-2. Two defenses in this game will make it a close affair. Buffalo has only allowed 54 points this year, 13.5 points per game, which is tops in the NFL. Cincinnati is third, however, at 16.75 point per game. I have missed the Bills pick the last two weeks, because I picked them to lose. Last week they won as a road dog against an Atlanta Falcons team that is much better than the Bengals. I am taking the visiting underdog.-- BILLS
Los Angeles Chargers vs (-3.0) New York Giants: The 0-4 Chargers have lost three games by three points or less. The 0-4 Giants have lost two games by three points or less. By that math, Los Angeles sucks just a little bit less. Let's take another road dog. I really hope this game is not televised in the D.C. market. -- CHARGERS
Arizona Cardinals vs. (-6.5) Philadelphia Eagles: Arizona is 2-2, but there two victories have been narrow margins over awful teams (See: Niners and Colts). Their two losses were double digit point differentials against the Cowboys and Lions. I feel another two-score loss coming on in Philly this weekend. -- EAGLES
Jacksonville Jaguars vs (-7.5) Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh RB LeVeon Bell missed a lot of training camp due to contract dispute. Many feel that had a lot to do with his slow start this year, but he hit midseason form last week with 144 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-9 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. How will Jacksonville stop Bell? They won't -- they have the worst run defense in the NFL. -- STEELERS
New York Jets vs (no line) Cleveland Browns: Prior to this season I thought the Browns were going to be bad, but were trending upward. I thought the Jets would be the worst team in the NFL with little prospects for improvement. Jeff Risdon of Browns Wire saw it similarly back in August as he predicted this to be Cleveland's easiest game on the schedule and one of the five games the Browns should expect to win. Two of those five games have already passed and Cleveland is still winless. -- JETS
Seattle Seahawks vs (1.5) Los Angeles Rams: Not many people would have anticipated the Rams would be leading the NFC West over the Seahawks. Los Angeles also has scored the second most points in the NFL with 142 after four games. My gut says the Rams aren't quite that good, and the Seahawks aren't as bad as they have looked. Oops, I just picked another road dog. -- SEAHAWKS
NOTE: OK, that's three road underdogs, and I still have four more games to pick. Let's remember this for Week Six, because I could be in for awful week of picks.
Baltimore Ravens vs. (-3.0) Oakland Raiders: The Raiders will be starting back QB E.J. Manuel, who has gone 6-11 as a starter in the NFL. Over the passed two seasons, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco isn't much better at 11-15. Both teams are on two-games losing streaks, but the Ravens have been downright non-competitive recently. They have lost their last two by a combined score of 16-70. -- RAIDERS
Green Bay Packers vs (-2.5) Dallas Cowboys: I just heard that the Cowboys defense gave up scores on nine of the last 11 possessions in a loss to the Rams last week. Green Bay also has the 6th ranked defense in the NFL. Look at me! I am like a degenerate gambler here. Taking the road dog, again. -- PACKERS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (no line) Houston Texans: Thank goodness there is no line on this game. Otherwise, this would most likely be another road dog pick for me. Houston has the 5th ranked defense in the NFL and rookie QB Deshaun Watson threw five touchdowns last week in a win over the Tennessee Titans, 57-14. Kansas City has been the best team in the NFL over the first four weeks, and rookies always have a hard time with consistency. -- CHIEFS
Minnesota Vikings vs. (+3.0) Chicago Bears: Minnesota keeps struggling with injuries. They lost QB Sam Bradford after Week One, and now they will be missing leading rusher RB Dalvin Cook. Chicago is going to debut rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky for this Monday night matchup. That's about the only thing of interest in this game. Monday is a good night to focus on the baseball playoffs. -- VIKINGS
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