Athletic Narcissism Trending Up

The HOTPO staff hopes you are enjoying probably the best football weekend we have ever been provided with the first-ever College Football Playoff semifinals and the NFL Wild Card Weekend. 

With the end of the NFL regular season, we have to assess the HOTPO picks from the beginning of the season. 

Below you will see: Column 1, 2023 playoff teams; Column 2, 2024 HOTPO predictions; and Column 3, 2024 playoff teams. Teams annotated in green landed exactly where they did last year, either a division winner or a wild card entry, while yellow are teams that made it, but not as predicted. Teams highlighted in red are new entries to the playoffs that missed out last year. 

The HOTPO got eight of the 14 qualifiers correct. That's OK - maybe a B or B- grade. If you want to be "good" at making preseason predictions, just pick the teams that made it the year before - you will historically get at least eight correct (this year would have been 10 correct). 

So, not bad on season predictions, but let's look at the post-NFL draft assessment we provided back in April. In that edition, I saw the drafting of six quarterbacks in the first round as "overreach" and estimated that at least half of the six would be disappointing to busts, which aligns with historical sucess rates. This looks to be very wrong at this point. 

Since not all of the six played the entire season, we'll take a look at all of them from the perspective of an averaged statistic, quarterback rating. Jayden Daniels (100.1/11th) and Bo Nix (93.3/18th) exceeded the league average rating of 92.3. Drake May (88.1/23rd) and Caleb Williams (87.8/24th) weren't far off the league average and they played for some miserable teams. Michael Penix only played three games, but acquitted himself pretty well for quarterbacking during a playoff run completing 58 percent of his passes. 

NOTE: J.J. McCarthy got hurt in training camp, but was on his way to starting for the Minnesota Vikings at the time. If Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell can turn Sam Darnold into a top-tier quarterback, it's not a crazy assumption to think McCarthy would have had success this year, too. 

Let's do some picks. 

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans: While both of these teams have well-known, young and talented quarterbacks, it’s the defenses that will win or lose this game. Los Angeles brings the top-rated scoring defense and Houston has the 6th rated defense in yards allowed. Both of these young quarterbacks will be under pressure when dropping back as the Texans are 4th in sacks (49) and the Chargers are ranked 6th (46). 

Matt Kelley and Taylor Bechtold of The Analyst did a deep dive on the performance of quarterbacks under pressure that shows Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is one of only three quarterbacks, along with Joe Burrow and Derek Carr, that were “above the league average in adjusted completion percentage (57.0%), well-thrown percentage (74.3%), air yards per attempt (9.9) and pickable pass percentage (5.53%) while under pressure.” According to StatMuse, Herbert has the 7th ranked passer rating under pressure, while Houston QB C.J. Stroud is the 25th best quarterback under pressure. Also, the Texans offensive line gives up more sacks than the Chargers, 52 to 41. 

Pick: CHARGERS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-10): Some people see this game as a referendum on Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson and Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin. After starting 0-2 in playoff games, Jackson has progressively accomplished a little bit more on his return trips to the playoffs getting as far as the AFC championship game last year, but critics won't give him credit for greatness until he holds a Lombardi Trophy. Tomlin hoisted that trophy with the Steelers following the 2008 season and lost in the Super Bowl following the 2010 season, but is on a four-game playoff losing streak and 3-7 in the playoffs overall since that Super Bowl loss.

Rivalry-wise, this is a great matchup of AFC North teams that battled for the division title through the last weekend of the regular season. Competition-wise, this is not so much of a great matchup. Baltimore is on a four-game winning streak (with one of those wins against the Steelers) and Pittsburgh is on a four-game losing streak. 

Pick: RAVENS

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-9): Buffalo QB Josh Allen (3,731 YDS/28 TD/6 INT w/12 Rushing TD) has carried the Bills this year and is in the conversation for league MVP. Surprisingly, Denver QB Bo Nix (3,775 YDS/29 TD/12 INT w/4 Rushing TD) put together a statistically comparable rookie campaign even though some people (looking in the mirror) predicted he’d fail. It’s interesting with their statistic similarities that one is an MVP candidate and the other isn’t even in the Rookie of the Year conversation. 

Speaking of rookies, rookie quarterbacks are 14-27 in playoff games going back to 1976, according to an article by Bryan Murphy of the Sporting News. Road games are usually tougher on rookies and Buffalo is 8-0 at home this year. Jason Burgos of The Sportsnaut also reports the Bills lead the league in turnover differential (+24) and are second in the league in total turnovers (32), which sounds like a significant hazard for a rookie quarterback. 

Pick: BILLS

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5): Green Bay went on the road in the first round of the playoffs last year and blasted the higher-seeded Dallas Cowboys in Dallas, 48-32. Last year, Philadelphia hosted the lower-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers and got run off the field, 32-9. The Eagles are a little more stabilized this year entering the playoffs and the Packers won’t sneak up on anybody this year.

Both quarterbacks are dealing with recent injuries with Packer Jordan Love coming off a Week 18 injury to his throwing elbow and Eagle Jalen Hurts coming out of concussion protocol from a Week 16 bell ringing. Green Bay also will be missing their leading deep threat, WR Christian Watson (21.4 YDS/REC), due to an ACL tear. On defense, the Packers likely will see the return of S Evan Williams, LB Quay Williams and DE Brenton Cox, Jr, but they are all nursing injuries, according to Matt Schneidman of The Athletic. 

Pick: EAGLES 

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): Listening to DMV sports radio the other day, I heard some talking head discuss how Washington struggles to run between the tackles and stop the run between the tackles. While the Commanders have the 3rd ranked rushing attack, that stat is skewed by QB Jayden Daniels gaining 52.1 YDS/GAME on the ground. Without Daniels’ contribution, they would be a middle-of-the-pack running game and will likely struggle against the Buccaneers 4th rated rushing defense. 

Tampa Bay has the 4th ranked rushing attack led by RB Bucky Irving (1,122 YDS, 8 TD) and RB Rachaad White (613 YDS, 3 TD) that should feast on the 30th ranked rushing defense of Washington. Buccaneer QB Baker Mayfield (4,500 YDS/41 TD) is having a phenomenal year and will have a healthy WR Mike Evans (74 REC/1,004 YDS/11 TD) to target. The matchup between Commander CB Marshawn Lattimore and Evans should be fun to watch – these two hate each other from their NFC South battles when Lattimore was with the New Orleans Saints, as reported by Greg Auman of FOX Sports. 

Pick: BUCCANEERS

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (in Glendale, Arizona): This is a teacher versus pupil matchup as Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell served as the offensive coordinator for two seasons under Los Angeles coach Sean McVay, as highlighted by Lorenzo Reyes in a Jordan Mendoza USA Today article. The Vikings had their 9-game winning streak halted last week in ugly fashion losing to the Detroit Lions, 31-9. The Rams rested starters last week resulting in the end of their 5-game winning streak with a loss to the Seattle Seahawks, 30-25. 

So which team can flip the switch a week later and play quality playoff football? The scoreboard should get lit up as both teams have very good passing attacks and poor passing defenses. The big mismatch in this game is the 2nd ranked Vikings rush defense against the Rams 24th rated rushing offense. 

Pick: VIKINGS 

College Football Update

The college football championship game is now set between Notre Dame and Ohio State after a very competitive semifinal round. 

Quick Thoughts:

• Across all the bowl games, the Big Ten is 10-6 with five wins in the CFP while the SEC went 8-7 with only two wins in the CFP. 
• Kirk Herbstreit and the ESPN football intelligentsia were clearly SEC biased, incorrectly trashed IU and now try to deny their thinly veiled favoritism. 
• While the SEC has won 13 of the 24 titles since 2000, the SEC only won four championships in the 20 years between 1980 and 1999. It is possible we are looking at a cyclical shift in power as now everyone gets to pay players and all the money is on the table. 
• And let's give some flowers to the mighty American Athletic Conference that had the highest winning percentage (0.750, 6-2), including an Army victory over Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. 

And speaking of Army, HOTPO did cover the Army/Navy game that unfortunately went to Navy, who played a much better game and deserved to win (hat tip). Regardless, with the game being played local to the HOTPO headquarters, it was an unbelievably great weekend of reconnecting with so many loyal subscribers. For me, Army/Navy Weekend is the best "holiday" of the year - a combo of the Super Bowl, Thanksgiving and Mardi Gras. 

Consider the below your Christmas card from the HOTPO. Happy New Year. Hope to see you all in Baltimore next year. 

Friday night social with fellow 1995 C2 graduates, Krista Hoffman, Matt Edmond, Terry Branna, Chris Young, Brian Perez, Stacey Pittman and Catherine Gaffigan (Tom Blount not pictured, but arrived later). 

HOTPO staff with loyal subscribers on game day. 

With Anthony Randall at the HOTPO headquarters on Sunday following the game closing out the weekend. Randall facilitated our 10-person group attendance at the game. We were in Ranger School together in the mid-90s and deployed to Iraq together as part of the 3rd Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division as part of "The Surge" in 2007-08. Thanks, brother, for putting it all together.