NFL Week 6 Picks w/Concert Review

I know you all are reading this blog and trust in my acumen when making your picks. You probably assume that I am watching all the games and digesting copious amounts of data for synthesis. I am not doing that. 

Pulling back the curtain, that’s not how it is. During NFL game action last week, I also folded laundry, biked to a buddy's garage (because he has the YouTube Sunday Ticket), bounced around the YouTube selection in said garage, grilled chicken for dinner and ate that dinner with the HOTPO staff. With all these distractions, I came through the weekend with questions about four of the five games I missed. 

I reviewed the information on those games to see if I could learn anything.

From October 2023, a peak behind the curtain at "the garage," a prime viewing access point for HOTPO coverage. 

How did the 49ers blow a 13-point halftime lead to the previously 1-3 Cardinals? It was the second time this year that San Francisco has blown a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and the sixth time they have blown a double-digit, fourth quarter lead under coach Kyle Shanahan, according to an AP article on ESPN.com. The Niners have quite an extensive injury list, including superstars like RB Christian McCaffrey and LB Dre Greenlaw, so their late collapses can be blamed on a lack of depth. Well, that and to some extent – Shanahan gonna' Shanahan. 

How did the Patriots manage to lose at home to a Tua-less Dolphins team? Miami is starting a backup quarterback and generally playing terrible football – a blocked punt, two missed field goals and an interception in this game. But the Dolphins won this game. Justin Leger of NBC Sports Boston reports the Patriots committed a whopping 16 penalties and their listless offense just couldn’t stay on the field, gaining only 17 first downs to Miami’s 24, to lose the possession battle by almost ten minutes. 

Why couldn’t the Steelers move the ball against the Cowboys defense missing arguably its two best players? I don’t know, but they couldn’t and that was the difference. Offensively, Pittsburgh is ranked 23rd in Yards/Game and 26th in Points/Game. I think we can now feel certain that a Justin Fields-led offense will not be scoring 20 points often, if ever. 

How did the Seahawks lose a home game to the Giants who didn't even have WR Malik Nabers or RB Devin Singletary playing? This makes no sense. New York QB Daniel Jones had a great game (he doesn’t normally do that) and rookie RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (from Indianapolis mind you) in his first meaningful action ran for 129 yards on 18 carries (that hasn’t happened before). This has to be Seattle coming off a short week loss to Detroit, over-looking their opponent and letting one loss turn into two – mentally not ready. 

Week 6 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears (-2), in London: Chicago is on a sneaky two-game win streak and sitting at a respectable 3-2. Jacksonville got their first win at home thanks to a putrid Indianapolis defense. The Bears have a stronger defense. – BEARS 

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): Every Washington win has come against a questionable opponent. Baltimore might only be 3-2, but they haven’t played a truly bad game, yet. This game is between the 4th ranked Commanders offense and the 1st ranked Ravens offense – take the over. – RAVENS 

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5): Arizona might be feeling a little spicy after their come-from-behind, upset victory in San Francisco last week. These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. Green Bay has a solid rush defense and Arizona does not. – PACKERS 

Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots: See thoughts on Patriots 15-10 loss to Miami above. – TEXANS 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak and will be putting rookie QB Spencer Rattler under center with starting QB Derek Carr dealing with an oblique injury. Darrion Gray of the Saints Wire published by USA Today points out that since 2010, the Saints have endured a three-game losing streak every year they didn’t make the playoffs (2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2022, 2023) and have made the playoffs every year they didn’t (2010, 2011, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020).So, New Orleans is basically done for the year, already. – BUCCANEERS 

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5): Vegas has Philadelphia as a massive favorite this weekend which should tell you something. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and the Browns are coming off another embarrassing loss, this time to the Commanders 34-13. Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson has the worst Quarterback Rating and Yards/Attempt of all NFL quarterbacks. – EAGLES 

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Indianapolis, with even mediocre defensive play, could have been 3-2 and in the playoff hunt at this time. But, they don’t get good defensive play, are now 2-3 and an underdog to a 1-3 Tennessee team. Nobody even knows who they will start at quarterback this week – Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco. – TITANS 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos: This game will match two bad offenses and two very good defenses. Both of these teams give up fewer than 15 points a game and score about 18 per game. Vinnie Iyer of the Sporting News thinks the rested Chargers, coming off a bye week, will gain a decided advantage through their running game. – CHARGERS 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders: I already mentioned in the preamble that the Pittsburgh offense is pretty bad. The Las Vegas offense is just as bad – slightly better in Points/Game (+0.8) and slightly worse in Yards/Game (-2.4). The Raiders will be trotting out a new starting quarterback this week in Aiden O’Connell against a very good Steelers defense. – STEELERS 

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Carolina Panthers: Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins sure did get it going last week with 509 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in a 36-30 win over Tampa Bay. Carolina continued their losing ways against the Bears, 36-10. Cousins’ upward trend and the Panthers downward trend should both continue this week. – FALCONS 

Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys: Ryan Matthews of the Pride of Detroit blog published some interesting comments by David Halprin of the Blogging the Boys blog, in which Halprin attributed the Cowboys recent defensive surge to playing two bad quarterbacks and that facing a loaded Lions offense will be a totally different challenge. Dallas is still dealing with injuries to key defenders and Detroit is coming off of a bye week. This is going to be an interesting game. – LIONS 

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants: Cincinnati is getting very creative in finding ways to lose games. New York got creative last week on offense and put a quality game together. The Giants should have success against the Bengals terrible defense, but not enough to garner the home victory. – BENGALS 

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets: Buffalo is in a little bit of a mini-free fall. How do you stop a two-game losing streak? Play the Jets. – BILLS 

Vampire Weekend at the Anthem

First off, Vampire Weekend is not really my thing, but the HOTPO Senior Editor felt it was a "must cover" event. Therefore, we coordinated with some loyal HOTPO readers and joined them for a Monday evening at the Anthem in DC. 

With the HOTPO Senior Editor at the Anthem DC for Vampire Weekend. 

After seeing them live, they are still not my thing, but I would go see them again. They are clearly excellent musicians and put a ton of energy into the show. While we knew Vampire Weekend is known for playing an extensive encore of covers, we pulled an old-people-on-a-school-night, Irish goodbye and departed prior to the encore. 

The early departure was the right call for being able to handle the following workday, we missed out on what must have been a tremendous encore. They played a 17-song (!) encore covering MGMT, Jimmy Buffett, Aerosmith, the Grateful Dead, Bruce Springsteen and the Strokes - they probably nailed "Reptilia" by the Strokes. I would go back to see them do a full-up encore. 

Most importantly, let's talk logistics for enjoying a night at the Anthem. We have taken an Uber there before, but linking up with your Uber coming out of a packed concert is insanely hard. This time, we reserved a parking space at one of the three garages under the Anthem and the in-and-out was actually very easy - you just have to commit to limiting intake and staying good for the drive.