NFL Week 5 Picks w/College XC and MLB Playoffs Updates
Things got seemingly back to normal last week. Excluding the Thursday night game, the favorites went 9-6. I got three underdog winners correct, but three of my favorites lost for a solid overall 12-4 week.
This should be another wildly interesting week with oddsmakers setting the line for eight games at 3 points or fewer. Five of those eight lines are set at 2.5 points or fewer. We even have a matchup of division leaders that is virtually a pick 'em game.
Let's do some picks.
Week 5 Picks
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): New York has the second-best defense in the league (based on total yards allowed), but three of their four opponents have had terrible offenses. By the same measure, Minnesota has the 23rd ranked defense overall and the worst passing defense. The Jets defense could keep this close and it could be a “get right” game for them offensively, but probably not enough right to win this one. – VIKINGS
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4): Carolina is averaging 30 points a game in the small two-game sample size since QB Andy Dalton took over. Chicago is averaging fewer than 20 points a game over their 2-2 start. The Panthers might have a hard time stopping that mediocre Bears offense this week since they will be missing CB Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson and LB Josey Jewell on defense this week, according to Dean Jones of the Cat Crave blog. – BEARS
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: This is a great AFC North divisional matchup. Baltimore figured out their fourth quarter collapse issues last week and Cincinnati didn’t look especially great against a bad Carolina team. The Ravens have the best rushing attack in the NFL and the Bengals have the 2nd worst “run stop win rate” in the league along with a slew of injuries along their defensive front, as highlighted by Matt Sidney of the Ebony Bird blog. – RAVENS
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Houston Texans: Buffalo got shellacked by Baltimore Sunday, 35-10. Houston didn’t look great in beating a bad Jacksonville team, 24-20, following their ugly loss to Minnesota, 34-7, the week before. The Texans haven’t beaten a good team yet and Greg Vorse of WETM (Elmira, New York) reports the Bills are 18-5 coming off a lost under head coach Sean McDermott. – BILLS
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): Indianapolis has lost nine straight Jacksonville home games with one played in London. Their last victory in Jacksonville was in Sept. 2014. Both of these defenses are awful, so maybe we get some offensive fireworks from these two mediocre-to-poor teams. – JAGUARS
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1): Since losing starting QB Tua Tagovailoa to a head injury, Miami has lost three straight by an average of more than 20 points. – PATRIOTS
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5): Sports radio in the DMV is filled with positivity after the Commanders 3-1. Washington now leads the NFC East by one game. In my copious time traversing the clogged Northern Virginia roadways, I heard this little nugget: since 2016, the division leaders after Week 4, have won their division 68 percent of the time and made the playoffs at 77 percent rate. – COMMANDERS
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3): Denver has lost eight straight games to Las Vegas. The Raiders have gone a middling 32-35 and had four different head coaches in that span, but the Broncos went 25-42 and cycled through four coaches during that time as well. These are two division rivals desperate to return to legitimacy, but the Raiders have an extensive injury report this week and a disgruntled WR Davante Adams requesting to be traded. – BRONCOS
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5): Arizona has the 28th ranked rushing defense after giving up 187 yards in their Week 3 loss to Detroit and another 216 yards losing to Washington last week. San Francisco RB Jordan Mason averages 111 rushing yards a game and 4.9 yards per carry. It’s like they don’t even miss RB Christian McCaffrey and probably won’t this week, either. – 49ERS
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams: The Los Angeles defense has given up the second-most yards and points through the first four weeks of play. Greg Beacham of the AP reports that Rams head coach Sean McVay is under fire for going 7 of 17 in the red zone this season, as well. Los Angeles has a porous defense, a stalling offense, and her comes Green Bay with their third-ranked offense. – PACKERS
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): You think the Rams have offensive issues? New York has failed to score a touchdown in two of their four games. Rookie WR Malik Nabers, who has scored three of the team’s four receiving touchdowns, is currently in concussion protocol and questionable for this game. – SEAHAWKS
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): I am not ready to write off Dallas as a non-contender and not ready to crown Pittsburgh as a true contender. However, the Cowboys will be missing arguably their two best defensive players – LB Micah Parsons and DE DeMarcus Lawrence. The Steelers should also be a little salty coming off their loss to the Colts. – STEELERS
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Nothing is 100 percent. The phrase “any given Sunday” has merit for a reason. But is anyone really thinking too hard about this one? – SWIFTIES
College XC Update
The HOTPO staff got on the ground recently to check on our "hometown" cross country team at Radford University. We were able to snag our HOTPO staff member for an opportunity to "cover" the Maryland/Indiana football game at the River Company Brewery and spend some time with many of the runners on the team. Both the men and women ran at the Eastern Carolina Pirate Cross Country Invitational today against some tough competition and next up is at the University of Virginia Oct. 19.
MLB Playoff Update
The MLB Wild Card playoffs this week did NOT disappoint. The format of a best-of-3 series at one location with no travel is perfect. Even if a team gets "swept," it still feels like a near sudden-death format throughout.
The New York Mets beat the Milwaukee Brewers and will now play the Philadelphia Phillies. New York's run to the playoffs after a miserable start is turning into a Cinderella story.
The San Diego Padres defeated an injury-depleted Atlanta Braves and will now play the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is now a big brother/little brother matchup between the #1 NL seed Dodgers and the underdog Padres.
The Detroit Tigers bested the arrogant and dishonest Houston Astros to next meet the Cleveland Guardians. Don't really care what happens in this coming series - just happy to not have to watch the Astros "bang their trash cans" anymore this year.
Finally, the Kansas City Royals beat the uber-talented Baltimore Orioles that just can't find the October recipe yet. The Royals will now meet the #1 AL seed New York Yankees where the story will be the...New York Yankees.
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