NFL Week 11 Picks w/CFP Report

The HOTPO staff was on-hand to cover the James Madison versus Marshall game at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington, W.Va., Saturday, that ended in a 35-23 victory for JMU. 

JMU came into the game leading the Sun Belt Conference East division with a dark horse shot at making the college football playoffs. Quarterback Alonza Barnett spread the ball around targeting eight different receivers with seven catching passes and three scoring touchdowns. The Marshall running game totaled 248 yards and kept them close (only down 5 with 10:15 remaining in the 4th quarter), but it wasn’t good enough for the rebuilding Thundering Herd, who still have bowl eligibility within reach. 

Last Saturday was also the annual commemoration of the 75 people that lost their lives in the November 13, 1970 plane crash as the Marshall football team, coaches and supporters returned from a game at East Carolina in Greenville, N.C. Surviving family members participated in a short ceremony on the field to recognize the loss and the strength needed to continue moving forward in the face of such tragedy. It is clear Marshall football remains important to the Huntington and Marshall communities in spite of the tragedy and probably due to the bonds forged in response to such a challenge. 

Huntington on a Marshall home game weekend was a blast. The HOTPO staff was able to execute a mini-bar crawl and solid tailgate operations (in and around our typical excellent “coverage”) without the regular cost and congestion of an event along the I-95 corridor. It was a little bit of a hike to get there from the HOTPO headquarters, but was well worth the effort. 

The HOTPO coverage team on the third stop (The Union Pub and Grill) of a Huntington, W.Va. pub crawl. 

The HOTPO coverage team after securing an excellent tailgate location well before kickoff.

That early morning glow is not the sun, but the scoreboard in Joan C. Edwards Stadium.

HOTPO team from the mobile press box for the weekend in Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington, W.Va. 

The HOTPO coverage team even got to see the "toe tap heard round the world" at the post-game tailgate - morale was high. 

Let's get to the picks. 

NFL Week 1 Picks

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins (-2.5) (in Madrid, Spain): The Dolphins 30-13 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week was a shocker – did not see that coming at all. The Commanders 44-22 drubbing at the hand of the Detroit Lions was not a surprise. Both of these teams are navigating lost seasons, but it seems like Washington, with its 30th ranked defense and injured franchise quarterback, is passing Miami on the race to the lower depths of the NFL. – DOLPHINS 

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5): Both of these teams lost last weekend, but the Carolina loss to the New Orleans Saints was an abject failure, while Atlanta almost beat the Indianapolis Colts. According to Charles Odum of the AP, the Saints were able to shut down the Panthers running game and put pressure on QB Bryce Young all day. The Falcon defense is 10th rated in yards allowed and fifth in sacks. – FALCONS 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5): Speaking of abject failure, the Bills lost last week to the hapless Dolphins, 30-13. Miami got the win due to 225 total yards from RB De’Von Achane, along with three sacks and three takeaways from their defense. The Buccaneers don’t have the healthy offensive weaponry to produce like Achane and I doubt the Bills will give the ball away as often this week. – BILLS 

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Chargers are facing the dreaded 1pm ET kickoff on the east coast, which often seems to stymie west coast teams.  Fortunately for Los Angeles, they are facing QB Trevor Lawrence who many, like Douglas Fritz of Clutch Points, are beginning to think is a bust. The Chargers 4th rated defense will likely make this another tough day for Lawrence. – CHARGERS 

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3): Pretty sure I would not have predicted the Bears being tied for first and the Vikings being in last in the NFC North prior to the season. Patrick K. Flowers of Bleacher Nation points out that Chicago QB Caleb Williams is excellent under pressure (eight touchdowns, zero interceptions when blitzed). Minnesota QB J.J. McCarthy is struggling as of late completing less than half his passes and throwing two interceptions in a loss last week to the Baltimore Ravens, 27-19. – BEARS 

Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants: Green Bay is kind of a weird team. They were a preseason darling (5th best odds to win the Super Bowl), but are now on a two-game losing streak. New York is not a weird team – just an awful one, again. – PACKERS 

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): The Bengals have been without star QB Joe Burrow most of the year, but are only two games back from the division-leading Steelers. This is also about as close to a “rivalry” game you can get in the modern NFL. Still, I can’t put the trigger on this “road dog” upset. – STEELERS 

Houston Texans (-6) at Tennessee Titans: Houston has climbed back to within one game of 0.500 after dropping their first three games. Backup QB Davis Mills helped the Texans secure a big win intra-division win over the Jaguars last week throwing for two touchdowns and running for one. It will be interesting to see if the Titans can be competitive coming off a bye week. – TEXANS 

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals: The injuries might finally be catching up with the 49ers as they got beaten handily by the Los Angeles Rams last week, 42-26. The Cardinals had been losing, but keeping every game close until getting thumped last week by the Seattle Seahawks, 44-22. While both of these teams need this game badly, all of the experts in Blake Schuster’s USA Today article are going with the visitors. – 49ERS 

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3): This is the best matchup of the day. These two teams are tied atop the NFC West with 7-2 records that is only matched in the NFC by the Philadelphia Eagles. Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated thinks the Seahawks front four getting pressure on Rams QB Matt Stafford without blitzing is the key to this game. – RAMS 

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns: The Ravens, like the Bengals, played multiple games without their injured starting QB Lamar Jackson, but remain right behind the Steelers for the AFC North lead. Baltimore, however, got Jackson back already and are now a true division title contender. Cleveland, on the other hand, is in contention for the first overall pick, again. – RAVENS 

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos: John Ewing of BetMGM recently pointed out that the Chiefs wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today, but they are still the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City has been struggling on offense, are traveling to Denver, who has a great defense, and, yet, they are favored this week. Bronco QB Bo Nix has been struggling and I am not going to mess with this Chiefs witchcraft. – CHIEFS 

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): This is an awesome Sunday night matchup between two division leaders. Detroit is rated in the top ten on both sides of the ball, but only 2-2 in their last four games. Philadelphia got an ugly victory last week, but is like Kansas City – you just can’t bury them. – EAGLES  

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders: I will be in bed before this one gets to halftime. – COWBOYS 

Next Week: we are planning an NCAA cross country update to go with the Week 12 picks. Enjoy the games.