NFL Week 11 Picks w/Veterans Day Acknowledgement
To properly acknowledge our Veterans Day just passed, let’s take a look at one of our heroes.
Some people join the military to inflict enough pain upon our enemies so that those enemies stay a safe distance from our nation and our people remain safe and prosperous. Some people join the military because they see a way that, within the military, they can make the world a better place. My buddy James Carlisle is grouped in the latter.
James and I served together in the Sledgehammer Brigade of the U.S. Army 3rd Infantry Division during the surge in Iraq, 2007-08. He was our Civil Affairs Officer who worked to increase stability, enable local governments and improve quality of life for civilians. That was his mission in Iraq and he has maintained that mentality since retiring from the Army.
After retiring, James spent time as an elementary school teacher in South Carolina and established a non-profit, Young Scientist of South Carolina, focused on bringing high-level STEM learning to students who would otherwise not have access to such an opportunity. By the by, he established that non-profit in his garage on funds from his and his father’s own pocketbooks. Check them out here: https://youngscientistsofsc.org/.
I had an opportunity Sunday to link up with James at the Crystal City Sports Pub in Arlington, Virginia. This was a chance for the HOTPO staff to reconnect with a fellow Dog Face Soldier, but to also “cover” the morning NFL game at the pub, which we have always wanted to do. Without a doubt, the Crystal City Sports Pub is an incredible venue and perfect for NFL degenerates on a Sunday morning.
We enjoyed Chesapeake Style Eggs Benedict (topped with lump crab and Old Bay seasoning), Bloody Mary’s with Old Bay on the rim and old soldier conversation. The pub allows patrons to reserve seats at the bar and runs shuttles to Northwest Field for fans with tickets to the Commanders game that prefer to imbibe at breakfast and not drive around the Beltway on gameday. Crystal City Sports Pub is an ideal place to start your NFL Sunday – five stars.
Final note on James, in May of 2007, I experienced a very challenging day in Iraq. When I returned to the forward operating base, feeling exhausted and fortunate to be alive, he was the first, and maybe the only, person to engage me and check on my emotional status. We had only known each other for a few months at that time, but I was certain, in that moment, of a connection that would last a lifetime. Thanks again, brother.
To our veterans: thank you. I appreciate you more than you can imagine.
Let’s do some picks.
Week 11 Picks
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears: Here are some recent headlines following the Bears 19-3 loss to the Patriots Sunday, their third straight loss.
- Chicago Bears Shane Waldron fired as Bears' offensive coordinator
- Bears veterans want Caleb Williams benched after offensive coordinator was fired: report
- Chicago Bears Offense Stuck in Neutral as They Face NFC North Gauntlet
Research complete. – PACKERS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-14): This is a game between a Super Bowl contender and a team contending for the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. – LIONS
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5): Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa may not put up the meatiest stats, but he drastically improves his team. In his absence, the Dolphins went 1-3 against bad teams. Since his return, they have played two competitive games against good teams (Cardinals and Bills) and beaten another good team (Rams). – DOLPHINS
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at New England Patriots: Cameron DaSilva of the Rams Wire blog reports the Patriots have the least explosive offense and average the fewest number of yards per game offensively in the NFL. Los Angeles still has an outside shot at the playoffs after dropping last week’s game to Miami, 23-15, but those chances have dropped to 13 percent, according to an article by Leigh Oleszczak of The Ramblin’ Fan blog. New England has no chance at the playoffs. – RAMS
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1): James Mastrucci of the Dawg Pound Daily blog recently described Cleveland QB Jameis Winston as “the least predictable player in the NFL.” Since taking over as the Browns starting quarterback, Winston has had an impressive performance in an upset of the powerful Ravens, 29-24, and a terrible outing in a loss to the Chargers, 27-10. Mastrucci also pointed out New Orleans has a tendency to give up big plays – eight plays of 40-plus yards is tied for the most in the NFL. – BROWNS
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore has made it to the playoffs five of the last six years, but have struggled with Pittsburgh of late. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic, the Ravens have lost three straight and seven of eight against their division rival. This matchup will likely tilt on the #1 rated rushing offense of the Ravens versus the #4 rated rushing defense of the Steelers. – STEELERS (for now)
Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans: Minnesota has lost a little of their mojo after starting 5-0. They dropped two straight games to good teams (Lions and Rams) and then sort of got going again with two clunky performances that resulted in victories against bad teams (Colts and Jaguars). While Tennessee has the #1 rated defense (surprised, didn’t realize that), they have the 27th rated offense and have never really got their mojo going. – VIKINGS
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-4): Indianapolis is restarting the AR Experiment and will be starting rookie QB Anthony Richardson after benching him for two games. Richardson has the 42nd best passer rating of the 43 quarterbacks rated so far this year. New York has the 2nd best passing defense in the NFL – a dreadful performance by the Colts offense is likely. – JETS
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5): Neither of these teams inspires extreme confidence. This game will feature strength versus strength (Falcons #5 rated offense against the Broncos #5 rated defense) and weakness versus weakness (Falcons 24th rated defense against the Broncos 24th rated offense). Cameron Zunkel of Clutch Points highlights the Broncos have recorded the second most sacks (35) in the NFL and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is not extremely mobile. – BRONCOS
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5): San Francisco has weathered a 1-2 start and a ton of injuries, but are now getting healthy and sit at 5-4. Seattle has wasted a 3-0 start, have lost five of six and now are 4-5. These two teams are on opposite trajectories. – 49ERS
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5): Kansas City is 9-0, but always plays close games with six wins by one score for a total point differential of 58 points (9th best in the NFL). Buffalo, on the other hand, has blown out five teams on their way to 8-2 for a total point differential of 97 points (2nd best in the NFL). Since 2021, these teams have split six games with the Bills winning three regular season games and the Chiefs winning the three playoff matchups – we aren’t in the playoffs yet. – BILLS
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5): Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is having an incredible year (first in yards and touchdowns), but the Bengals have managed to lose six of ten games. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert, once thought to be a top-tier quarterback, is having maybe his least impressive statistical year (21st in yards, 18th in touchdowns), but the Chargers have managed to win six of nine games. Cincinnati can’t keep losing with Burrow playing at this level, and I know a couple astute NFL-obsessed degenerates that assure me Cincy will take this one. – BENGALS
Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Houston is playing like they want to give away the AFC South division lead to Indianapolis having lost three of their last four games. Dallas is playing like, well, not good having lost four straight. Last week I said the Cowboys were “imploding,” and after losing 34-6 to the Eagles, I am struggling to find a stronger term for their descent. – TEXANS
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