Reds are Flailing, Nats are Surprising and the Pacers are Up Against It

"Local" Baseball Beat Has Some Bad, Some Good

Jason Lisk of BetIQ projected the Cincinnati Reds to finish in the middle of the National League Central Division and the Washington Nationals to complete the season at the bottom of the NL East.

As of Wednesday morning, the Nationals were in the middle of the East and the Reds were sinking to the bottom of the Central.

Nick Krall, the Cincinnati President of Baseball Operations, initiated the Reds tear down and rebuild following the 2021 season when he was then the General Manager. After an abysmal 62-100 2022 season, the Reds surprised many by finishing 82-80 and only one game out of the playoffs last year. Reporters like Howard Wilkinson of 91.7 WVXU News (Cincinnati) anticipated this season being a "fun ride."

It has not been a "fun" first quarter of the season as the Reds are currently the worst hitting team in all of MLB, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Cincinnati can certainly point to multiple injuries to projected starters and a flu bug that reached epidemic proportions in the clubhouse as excuses, but the available Reds are underperforming. The awful Cincinnati performance has been hard on the HOTPO staff and has started a refocus to geographically local baseball. 

The Nationals 2024 season is giving off 2011-type positive vibes and the venerable, semi-retired Washington Post sports columnist Thomas Boswell concurs with me. That 2011 season saw Washington finish just under 0.500 (80-81) for a sixth consecutive season, but it was an 11-game improvement over the 2010 season and a 21-game improvement over both the 2009 and 2008 seasons. It was a turning point for the franchise that was beginning a very successful 8-year run that would include a World Series championship. 

After defeating the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 Tuesday night in the "Old Bay" series, the Nats were above 0.500 for the first time since July 1, 2021. Washington has been a boring team to watch since the 2019 championship with four straight last place finishes, but they are currently grabbing an increasing portion of my attention. Krall has done an excellent job of turning the Reds around in fairly short order, but right now it is looking like Cincinnati is on the verge of taking a major, unforeseen step backward. 

The Reds have the talent to improve their results and they should. That Nationals likely will regress and finish under 0.500. The HOTPO staff will plan on getting out to Nats Park when Cincinnati come to Washington in mid-July to see if this estimation holds true. 

A surprise appearance by Thomas Boswell in the Washington Post this week as the Washington Nationals surprise everyone with a surge to 0.500.

MLB Quarter Pole Update

The HOTPO has one loyal subscriber that finds our coverage of "local" teams boring. Always listening to our dozens of readers, we endeavor to occasionally provide more thorough, national coverage. About a quarter of the way through the season, here is a look at what was expected, what has happened and which surprise teams to watch going forward.

The Lindy's 2024 Baseball Preview projected the following teams as division winners:  

American League

• East: New York Yankees
• Central: Detroit Tigers
• West: Seattle Mariners

National League

• East: Philadelphia Phillies
• Central: Cincinnati Reds (Ooops!)
• West: Los Angeles Dodgers

Here are your current division leaders, as of May 9, 12pm ET:

American League

• East: Baltimore Orioles (percentage points ahead of the New York)
• Central: Cleveland Guardians (Detroit 5 games back in fourth)
• West: Texas Rangers (Seattle 1 game back in second)

National League

• East: Philadelphia Phillies
• Central: Milwaukee Brewers (percentage points ahead of the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati 5 games back in fourth)
• West: Los Angeles Dodgers

Zachary Rotman of FanSided sees the Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers as surprise teams that will continue to challenge for playoff spots. He also envisions the Nationals as regressing to the mean like the HOTPO. Of course, Rotman has nothing positive to say about the Reds. 

HOTPO staff covering the Washington Nationals during the run of excellence from 2011-2019.

Pacers Down 2-0, Must Win Both in Indy    

Two tightly contested games into the Eastern Conference Semifinals and the Indiana Pacers are down 2-0 to the New York Knicks as they head home for two games in Indianapolis.

The bottom line: the Pacers have been at a disadvantage due to the way this series has been called. Whether it was the three egregious calls in Game 1 or the general disparity in officiating at both ends of the court in Game 2, Indiana has been forced to play uphill. Pacer coach Rick Carlisle said it pretty well (my emphasis is bolded, not Carlisle's): 

"I am always talking to our guys about not making it about the officials. We deserve a fair shot. There's not a consistent balance and that is disappointing. Give New York credit for the physicality that they are playing with, but their physicality is rewarded and ours is penalized." 

I have seen and heard comments from many that Pacers fans are just whining and that the Pacers just need to play better - the first is false and the second is true. If someone thinks the officiating is NOT imbalanced, they are either (1) too emotional to see the truth or they are (2) willfully choosing to ignore the truth because it does not align with their preferred narrative. The Pacers MUST play better in many ways, though, no matter how the game is called.

The Pacers must:

• Find an answer for Knick PG Jalen Brunson who is just playing unbelievably great offensive basketball. He has been flat out incredible. 
• Block out and rebound better. Pacers have been outrebounded by 8 and 10 rebounds in Game 1 and Game 2, respectively. 
• Stop allowing New York SG Dante DiVincenzo open looks from behind the arc. He was 6-12 on 3-point field goals Wednesday night. 
• And, the Pacers big three - PG Tyrese Haliburton, PF Pascal Siakam and C Myles Turner - have to all play complete games at the same time, particularly Haliburton who has shown a tendency to pass too much and come up small late. 

I am still slightly, cautiously, kind of optimistic because the Pacers have certainly been competitive. Their bench has played surprisingly well and that depth might prove to be what saves them if they can extend the series with two wins at home. With the Knicks starters all clocking more than 40 minutes and the Pacers starters playing less than 40 minutes, maybe the Pacers can sneak through this round if the Knicks starters wear down. That is my dimming hope. 

The Close Out: it's Mother's Day Weekend this weekend. Set expectations or your celebration schedule accordingly, because these NBA and NHL playoffs aren't stopping for our wonderful moms out there. Happy Mother's Day to all.