NBA Stratification - Where Does Your Team Rank?

Hear along the Potomac, one of the sports talk radio discussions I heard leading up to the June 21 National Basketball Association draft was whether the Washington Wizards could elevate from their "B-level" status through the draft, trades or free agency this summer.

The NBA is definitely a stratified league where a few usual suspects (A-level) always end up competing for the title in June. The rest of the association is relegated to low playoff seed mediocrity (B-level) or tanking and rebuilding (C-level) in an effort to catch a once-in-a-lifetime star in the draft. The draft is a fun night where teams swap picks and players in an effort to jump to contender status or solidify their elite position.

Adam Fromal of Bleacher Report arrayed all 30 NBA franchises based on historical winning percentage, playoff appearances, finals appearances, championships, and All-Stars prior to this season. His ranking of the franchises takes into account the entire history of the NBA, not just the current status of each team. Historically, the Wizards are right there in the middle of the pack as a B-level team.

Ranking of every NBA franchise based on historical success by Adam Fromal of Bleacher Report. The rankings are his. The levels are an AHOTP addition.

But how do the teams stack up right now? Who is an A-level contender for the next NBA championship? The recent draft will have some effect (more on that later), but the real changes will happen after free agency begins July 1.

With free agency, players have a vote on where they will play. Teams that are good right now are enticing to free agents, but so is salary, location, and history. The historically elite franchises Fromal shows us often are in the bigger cities with the largest fan bases and have a greater financial capability to secure top-level talent on the open market.

If you are a young millionaire, would you prefer to live in Milwaukee or Los Angeles? (Answer: Los Angeles) If you were a young millionaire in Los Angeles, would you rather play for the Clippers or the Lakers? (Answer: Lakers) A team's ability to win now matters, but location and history matter, too -- the Lakers were worse than both the Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks last year. And the Bucks were the only playoff team of the three, but the least likely to be picked by a free agent.

While the Lakers were the worst of those three teams this past year, LeBron James and Paul George have both expressed interest in being a Laker in the 2018-19 season. If Los Angeles gets one of those two players, they jump to contender status immediately. If they get both, the Lakers will be odds on favorites to win the title. 

As the NBA enters free agency, the historically elite can leverage their legacy of winning, culture of success, and big city location in the free agency market to maintain or return to the A-level. Adding in these subjective variables to an assessment of all teams' current capabilities gives you your NBA stratification.

Here is your post-draft, pre-free agency A Hoosier on the Potomac NBA Stratification Table:

The first-ever AHOTP NBA Stratification Table which takes into account recent team performance, potential to improve during the offseason, and the gut feel of one of the best editorial staffs in the nation.

For the most part, the eight teams that advance to the conference semi-final round will come from the A-level column. Some of the B-level teams will make the playoffs and some will fall just short, but none will seriously contend for the championship. The C-level teams are flaming bags of burning feces in the shape of basketball teams.

Initial Free Agency Expectations:
  • LeBron James leaves Cleveland and what has been an elite team for four years will drop to C-level status.
  • Lakers will get a superstar free agent and/or trade for Kawhi Leonard and they will jump to the A-level. 
  • If Demarcus Cousins leaves New Orleans, the Pelicans will improve, and the team that he goes to will reach no higher than B-level.
[NOTE: Colin Ward-Henninger of CBSSports.com compiled a list of the 72 players becoming free agents as of July 1.]

So What About This Draft?

Suns are trending up: The Phoenix Suns had the first pick, and from what I have heard and read, Arizona C Deandre Ayton was the only clear-cut future All-Star in the draft. They got him, and he will be the big guy to balance out recently drafted guards -- G Devin Booker (2015/24.9 ppg, 4.7 apg) and  G Josh Jackson (2017/17.1 ppg, 6.2 apg). Phoenix is moving up that C-level list and might be reaching B-level status by 2019.

Hawks and Mavs swap might work for both: The NBA Draft is a crap shoot. Many of the players are very young, and whether they will ever produce in the Association is definitely in question. Via trade, the Atlanta Hawks acquired Oklahoma G Trae Young (#5 overall pick) and the Dallas Maverick's 2019 #1 pick, and the Mavs secured the rights to Luka Doncic (#3 overall pick). Young lacks size and defensive skills and Doncic has been posting big numbers against inferior competition in Europe. They both could excel or fail. I believe, like Mac Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the Mavericks have a lot to celebrate here (the Hawks less so).

Mikal Bridges gets the old "psyche" treatment: Villanova F Mikal Bridges is a Philly guy, born and bred. His mom, Tyneeha Rivers is the vice president of human resources for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers drafted Bridges with the 10th pick, and his elated mother joined him for his initial interview with ESPN. What a super cool story! Philadelphia traded Bridges six picks later for the rights to the Suns' 16th pick, Texas Tech F Zhaire Smith. Man, that's a shot to the old sphere satchel. Sarah Todd of Philly.com reported on all the details.

Pacers play it safe: The Indiana Pacers grabbed UCLA G Aaron Holiday with the 23rd overall pick. This pick will not make the Pacers appreciably better immediately, but Holiday was an efficient scorer and capable defender at UCLA, according to Tony East of 8Point9Seconds.com. Indiana General Manager Kevin Pritchard is going to have to work some summer-time magic for the Pacers to escape the B-level logjam next year.

Wizards do Wizards stuff: TheRinger.com put together an excellent mock draft prior to draft Thursday night. They projected Oregon G Troy Brown, Jr. as the 33rd pick in the draft. The Washington Wizards grabbed him at #15. The excellent Wizards beat reporter from the Washington Post, Candace Buckner, is probably a little too kind in her assessment of this pick, but she spells out why this is looks like a strange selection.

What's Next? I promised you baseball last week. I think I can get there next week.

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