NFL Wild Card Weekend Cheat Sheet
As I reported in my Week One NFL Cheat Sheet, I participated in a local fantasy football league draft with 27 other dudes over the Labor Day Weekend. It is a 14-team league that is so popular that you have to play with a partner.
Our fantasy league is top notch...an in-person draft, a traveling trophy, and a dinner/pub crawl in Old Town Alexandria following the season. We even have a guy that used to live here along the Potomac that comes down from Philly every year for the draft and end-of-season "banquet."
I said in that earlier post that I felt pretty good about our draft. I would not have said I felt confident about our chances to win the whole thing, but we did! I even won a pick 'em league that I have been in with some Army buddies since the mid-90s.
With all of that success, you would think I have this thing called the NFL figured out, and should feel pretty confident about my Wild Card Weekend picks. I am decidedly NOT confident this week.
I am going with all of the Vegas line favorites. That can't possibly hold. There will be at least one, if not two, underdogs that secure a victory. I am just not gutsy enough to pull the trigger on an upset pick. I will take my chances on missing the inevitable one upset over giving up two games by picking the wrong upset. You follow what I am saying there?
No? Then let's just go to the cheat sheet.
Tennessee Titans vs. (-9.0) Kansas City Chiefs: Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star says the Chiefs need to win this game through the air. According to Paylor, the Titans have a great run defense (4th in NFL) that has given up the fewest runs of 20 or more yards (3) this season, but the leaky pass defense (25th) has given up the most passing first downs in the league. Kansas City QB Alex Smith is the type of QB who can victimize a substandard secondary. His 26 TDs against 5 INTs have resulted in a league-leading 104.7 QB rating that dwarfs the 21st best rating compiled by Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota (13 TD, 15 INT, 79.3 QBR). Kansas City hasn't won a home playoff game in 24 years though. Cause for concern? Not with Tennessee missing injured RB DeMarco Murray's contributions to the running game. -- CHIEFS
NOTE: If you are looking for a reason to pick the Titans, see what Jimmy Morris of the MusicCityMiracles blog snagged from Twitter. Mickey Ryan, a sports radio host in Nashville, tweeted a fascinating little statistical nugget that officially makes me worried about this pick. Paylor wasn't supremely confident about the Chiefs, either.
Atlanta Falcons vs. (-5.5) Los Angeles Rams: The Falcons are higher rated than the Rams on offense (8th to 10th) and defense (9th to 19th). Also, the Falcons are 10-6, but only one of those losses was to a non-playoff team -- Miami back on Oct. 15. The 11-5 Rams actually have three such losses, but one was a throw-away loss in the final week to the San Francisco 49ers. David Steele of the SportingNews points out the Rams are only 4-4 in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Remember those three losses to the non-playoff teams? They all came in the coliseum. Due to all those unique stats, I was leaning toward picking the upset. Then Allen Strk of the blog Falcoholic reminded me that RB Todd Gurley is a Ram, and Steve Sarkisian is the Falcons offensive coordinator. -- RAMS
Buffalo Bills vs. (-9.0) Jacksonville Jaguars: The Cincinnati Bengals upset of the Baltimore Ravens last week helped propel the Bills to their first playoff appearance since 1999. Buffalo fans responded by donating $250,000 to Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton's charitable foundation, and then started throwing money at Bengals WR Tyler Boyd's charity of choice, according to Dave Clark of Cincinnati.com. That is a different perspective on Bills backers than what you see in this video from 2015:
Brad Gagnon of the Comeback thinks the Bills can keep it close. He believes "momentum, a lack of pressure and a better quarterback" are advantages for the visiting underdogs. I think any Buffalo momentum was built upon December victories over the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts (not saying much), and their quarterback is not significantly better than anybody--Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor has a worse rating (25th) than Mariota and his Sunday counterpart, Blake Bortles (11th). Ratings are just one variable, but Jacksonville has a ferocious defense, and Bills RB LeSean McCoy is likely out this weekend. -- JAGUARS
Carolina Panthers vs. (-6.5) New Orleans Saints: Quick! What is your first thought when I say the Saints beat the Panthers both times this year? My reply would be that it is damn near impossible to beat another professional football three times in one year. The CBSSports preview for this game told me the team "that swept the regular-season also won the playoff game 13 of 20 times" since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970. Well scratch that initial thought. Jonathan DeLong of Panthers blog CatScratchReader thinks the Panthers can win since they "always do the exact opposite of what should reasonably be expected." I'm not with him. The Saints offense has been balanced and potent all year, and the defense has been better than the historic New Orleans norm. Bob Rose of the CanalStChronicles sees the Saints defense as the difference. I am with him. -- SAINTS
They say "any given Sunday" for a reason -- the talent difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL is razor thin. This weekend (and next weekend for the Divisional playoffs) we get the top-level teams competing where the difference is even less.
There are only four NFL games this weekend, but you can still get lost in the deluge of data. I have only focused on a couple of specifics per game, but there are tons of variables in play.
I have read and reviewed a lot of information on each game, and I am still not wholly confident in these picks. I am quite confident that I am going to feverishly knock out some chores so I can watch as much of these four games as possible.
Two best weekends of NFL football is upon us. Enjoy!
Our fantasy league is top notch...an in-person draft, a traveling trophy, and a dinner/pub crawl in Old Town Alexandria following the season. We even have a guy that used to live here along the Potomac that comes down from Philly every year for the draft and end-of-season "banquet."
I said in that earlier post that I felt pretty good about our draft. I would not have said I felt confident about our chances to win the whole thing, but we did! I even won a pick 'em league that I have been in with some Army buddies since the mid-90s.
Year two! The 2016 expansion Red Flavor Savers are 2017 champs!
With all of that success, you would think I have this thing called the NFL figured out, and should feel pretty confident about my Wild Card Weekend picks. I am decidedly NOT confident this week.
I am going with all of the Vegas line favorites. That can't possibly hold. There will be at least one, if not two, underdogs that secure a victory. I am just not gutsy enough to pull the trigger on an upset pick. I will take my chances on missing the inevitable one upset over giving up two games by picking the wrong upset. You follow what I am saying there?
No? Then let's just go to the cheat sheet.
Tennessee Titans vs. (-9.0) Kansas City Chiefs: Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star says the Chiefs need to win this game through the air. According to Paylor, the Titans have a great run defense (4th in NFL) that has given up the fewest runs of 20 or more yards (3) this season, but the leaky pass defense (25th) has given up the most passing first downs in the league. Kansas City QB Alex Smith is the type of QB who can victimize a substandard secondary. His 26 TDs against 5 INTs have resulted in a league-leading 104.7 QB rating that dwarfs the 21st best rating compiled by Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota (13 TD, 15 INT, 79.3 QBR). Kansas City hasn't won a home playoff game in 24 years though. Cause for concern? Not with Tennessee missing injured RB DeMarco Murray's contributions to the running game. -- CHIEFS
NOTE: If you are looking for a reason to pick the Titans, see what Jimmy Morris of the MusicCityMiracles blog snagged from Twitter. Mickey Ryan, a sports radio host in Nashville, tweeted a fascinating little statistical nugget that officially makes me worried about this pick. Paylor wasn't supremely confident about the Chiefs, either.
Atlanta Falcons vs. (-5.5) Los Angeles Rams: The Falcons are higher rated than the Rams on offense (8th to 10th) and defense (9th to 19th). Also, the Falcons are 10-6, but only one of those losses was to a non-playoff team -- Miami back on Oct. 15. The 11-5 Rams actually have three such losses, but one was a throw-away loss in the final week to the San Francisco 49ers. David Steele of the SportingNews points out the Rams are only 4-4 in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Remember those three losses to the non-playoff teams? They all came in the coliseum. Due to all those unique stats, I was leaning toward picking the upset. Then Allen Strk of the blog Falcoholic reminded me that RB Todd Gurley is a Ram, and Steve Sarkisian is the Falcons offensive coordinator. -- RAMS
Buffalo Bills vs. (-9.0) Jacksonville Jaguars: The Cincinnati Bengals upset of the Baltimore Ravens last week helped propel the Bills to their first playoff appearance since 1999. Buffalo fans responded by donating $250,000 to Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton's charitable foundation, and then started throwing money at Bengals WR Tyler Boyd's charity of choice, according to Dave Clark of Cincinnati.com. That is a different perspective on Bills backers than what you see in this video from 2015:
"If this is gonna be THAT kind of party..."
Brad Gagnon of the Comeback thinks the Bills can keep it close. He believes "momentum, a lack of pressure and a better quarterback" are advantages for the visiting underdogs. I think any Buffalo momentum was built upon December victories over the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts (not saying much), and their quarterback is not significantly better than anybody--Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor has a worse rating (25th) than Mariota and his Sunday counterpart, Blake Bortles (11th). Ratings are just one variable, but Jacksonville has a ferocious defense, and Bills RB LeSean McCoy is likely out this weekend. -- JAGUARS
Carolina Panthers vs. (-6.5) New Orleans Saints: Quick! What is your first thought when I say the Saints beat the Panthers both times this year? My reply would be that it is damn near impossible to beat another professional football three times in one year. The CBSSports preview for this game told me the team "that swept the regular-season also won the playoff game 13 of 20 times" since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970. Well scratch that initial thought. Jonathan DeLong of Panthers blog CatScratchReader thinks the Panthers can win since they "always do the exact opposite of what should reasonably be expected." I'm not with him. The Saints offense has been balanced and potent all year, and the defense has been better than the historic New Orleans norm. Bob Rose of the CanalStChronicles sees the Saints defense as the difference. I am with him. -- SAINTS
They say "any given Sunday" for a reason -- the talent difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL is razor thin. This weekend (and next weekend for the Divisional playoffs) we get the top-level teams competing where the difference is even less.
There are only four NFL games this weekend, but you can still get lost in the deluge of data. I have only focused on a couple of specifics per game, but there are tons of variables in play.
I have read and reviewed a lot of information on each game, and I am still not wholly confident in these picks. I am quite confident that I am going to feverishly knock out some chores so I can watch as much of these four games as possible.
Two best weekends of NFL football is upon us. Enjoy!
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