NFL Week Eleven Cheat Sheet
So what do you want to talk about this week in our opening paragraphs before we get to the cheat sheet?
If you want to discuss current events, we can talk about a senatorial candidate hunting "barely legal" girlfriends or maybe a sitting senator shoving his tongue down the throat of a pin-up model-turned-radio personality.
How about we avert our eyes from the news for a minute and talk some college football?
Alex Funderburke of Forgotten5.com posted a great college football bowl projection this week. He thinks Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami, and Wisconsin will make the four-team championship playoff. I really hope it pans out like he has predicted.
I don't want to see two teams from the same conference in the final four-team tournament, and I definitely don't want to see a team that didn't win their own conference in the championship tournament. Yeah, I am looking at you Ohio State who lost to Penn State last year, finished second to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten East division, and still got selected for the tournament over the Big Ten champions from College Station, Pennsylvania. The Buckeyes promptly got throttled by Clemson 31-0 in the Fiesta Bowl, by the way.
Sports media talent always talk about the college football season being like a playoff in its own right -- you can't lose during the season (or lose too many in comparison to your peers) or your title hopes disappear. But if 60,000 of a school's alumni will travel more than 1,000 miles for a January football game, losses are conveniently ignored. Only conference champions should make the college football final four in my opinion (which means little).
Let's do this cheat sheet...
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (+7.5) Cleveland Browns: Would you believe the Browns have the 11th ranked defense in the NFL? The problem is that ranking is determined by yards allowed, not points -- they have given up 30+ points in five of their last seven games. There have only been four teams to have winless seasons since 1960, so probability says 0-9 Cleveland will at least win one of their next seven games. I am not betting on it this week, but they might have something to be thankful for when they travel to Cincinnati next week. -- JAGUARS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (no line) Miami Dolphins: I was surprised that the Buccaneers got a victory over the New York Jets 15-10 last Sunday. But how would I have known? I haven't watched Tampa Bay once this year. I have only seen the depths of the Dolphins ineptitude lately because they have played in prime time two of the last three weeks. Now that they are playing a 1 p.m. game this Sunday, I can avoid watching either of these teams. I recommend you do the same. -- BUCCANEERS
Arizona Cardinals vs. (-1.0) Houston Texans: Oh, boy, not hyped on this game, either. Houston has lost three straight games since turning the offense over to QB Tom Savage following Deshaun Watson's injury. Due to injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, the Cardinals will be handing the keys to Blaine Gabbert who has a 9-31 career record as a starter. That's three pretty bad games so far. -- TEXANS
Washington Redskins vs. (-7.5) New Orleans Saints: The book on the Saints used to be "great offense, bad defense" -- not so now. New Orleans has the 2nd ranked offense, 8th ranked defense, and have won seven straight. Washington went to Seattle two weeks ago, and secured a big win over the Seahawks. But the Redskins returned to their inconsistent form last week, and dropped a winnable game against the Minnesota Vikings at home. -- SAINTS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (+10.5) New York Giants: New York has lost their last three games by 17, 34, and 10 points. The closest game -- ten points isn't that close, mind you -- was to the woeful San Francisco 49ers. That is the 49ers only win this year. Kansas City had last week off, and their coach, Andy Reid, is 16-2 coming off a bye week. -- CHIEFS
Los Angeles Rams vs. (-2.5) Minnesota Vikings: OK, this is a great game between two division-leading, 7-2 teams. The Rams will bring the 3rd ranked offense quarterbacked by Jared Goff, and powered by excellent skill players like RB Todd Gurley and WR Robert Woods. But I am slightly more confident in the Vikings 5th ranked defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this year. In this toss-up game, I will go with the home team. -- VIKINGS
Baltimore Ravens vs. (+2.0) Green Bay Packers: Green Bay finally got a win 23-16 win over the Chicago Bears with backup QB Brent Hundley at the helm last week. Getting a win this week will be a much taller order for the young quarterback. Baltimore has the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL, allowing on 184 yards a game through the air. The Ravens might be able to start a little playoff run this week. After the Packers, four of their next six games are against teams with a losing record currently. -- RAVENS
Detroit Lions vs. (+3.0) Chicago Bears: Detroit is on a mini-run right now after winning their last two games over the Packers and Browns. That's not elite competition, but you need to win the games you should win. The Chicago defense is very solid, but rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky has struggled as you might expect. Lions TE Eric Ebron is a fan of his former college teammate, Trubisky, but he thinks the Lions will kick his ass. I agree with Ebron. -- LIONS
Buffalo Bills vs. (-6.0) Los Angeles Chargers: The Bills are doing it again -- great start, bad finish to a season. They have lost two straight, and they lost by 37 points last week against the Saints...at home! Now they have to make the dreaded coast-to-coast trip. The Chargers are a bag of smashed...well, smashed things and now I am reading that QB Philip Rivers might have a foggy brain after some heavy hits. Look, Rivers has made a ton of money and has eight kids -- he is already taken care of for life. Get out there and win this one, Philip! I don't care if you are getting spoon-fed oatmeal in 20 years. Entertain me! -- CHARGERS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. (-2.5) Denver Broncos: I started doing these capsules because I truly think I am decent at it and there might be a dozen people that will enjoy it. After starting, I have to see it through and do it every week (although, I did miss one week for our oldest child's confirmation weekend). It is games like this that make me want to quit this effort. You have to put tremendous brain power into predicting worthless games like this one. At first glance, having read nothing, my gut said, "Broncos, easy." Denver has the 4th rated defense in the NFL, and the Bengals stink ("stink" isn't what my gut said). Then I did some research and found the Broncos have lost five straight, and gave up 41 and 51 points in the last two! So I looked again at the Bengals -- they have lost two in a row, but they have been close games. Cincinnati also has the WORST offense in the NFL. Dude, this could go either way, it really doesn't matter...I am going with the home favorite (Thank God that's over). -- BRONCOS
New England Patriots vs. (+7.0) Oakland Raiders: I really thought the Raiders were a playoff team this year. We all knew the Patriots were going to make the playoffs. New England under coach Bill Belichick is the most amazingly consistent team in all of professional sports, and I hate them. Tommy, Micky, and Paddy are such insufferable douche bags when they brag about "Tahhmy" Brady after a few pints at McGillicuddy's. Did you know "Fuck You Tom Brady" was a thing on Twitter? Me neither, love it though. -- PATRIOTS
Philadelphia Eagles vs. (+5.0) Dallas Cowboys: Doing the Malcolm Gladwell method of picking games, you easily selected the Philadelphia in this game. The Eagles had last week off, and the Cowboys will not have RB Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas will be missing defensive leader LB Sean Lee, as well. This is the type of game -- underdog Cowboys, division rival -- that something against the grain happens. I am not betting on that however. -- EAGLES
Atlanta Falcons vs. (-3.0) Seattle Seahawks: This should be a very interesting game. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan may have an opportunity to complete a few more passes against Seattle's vaunted Legion of Boom since CB Richard Sherman is out. The Falcons looked impressive last week beating up the Cowboys 27-7. I know I lean on this a lot, but it matters...the Seahawks have had an extra few days since their 22-16 Thursday night victory over the Arizona Cardinals Nov. 9. -- SEAHAWKS
Oooh, I smell sausage from the kitchen. I need to go eat breakfast. I already had to drop our son off at wrestling practice earlier this morning. I picked up some pumpkin muffins and some flowers for my "special lady friend" on the way home. Today is going to be a good day.
If you want to discuss current events, we can talk about a senatorial candidate hunting "barely legal" girlfriends or maybe a sitting senator shoving his tongue down the throat of a pin-up model-turned-radio personality.
How about we avert our eyes from the news for a minute and talk some college football?
Alex Funderburke of Forgotten5.com posted a great college football bowl projection this week. He thinks Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami, and Wisconsin will make the four-team championship playoff. I really hope it pans out like he has predicted.
Seriously, give Alex Funderburke a read.
I don't want to see two teams from the same conference in the final four-team tournament, and I definitely don't want to see a team that didn't win their own conference in the championship tournament. Yeah, I am looking at you Ohio State who lost to Penn State last year, finished second to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten East division, and still got selected for the tournament over the Big Ten champions from College Station, Pennsylvania. The Buckeyes promptly got throttled by Clemson 31-0 in the Fiesta Bowl, by the way.
Sports media talent always talk about the college football season being like a playoff in its own right -- you can't lose during the season (or lose too many in comparison to your peers) or your title hopes disappear. But if 60,000 of a school's alumni will travel more than 1,000 miles for a January football game, losses are conveniently ignored. Only conference champions should make the college football final four in my opinion (which means little).
Let's do this cheat sheet...
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (+7.5) Cleveland Browns: Would you believe the Browns have the 11th ranked defense in the NFL? The problem is that ranking is determined by yards allowed, not points -- they have given up 30+ points in five of their last seven games. There have only been four teams to have winless seasons since 1960, so probability says 0-9 Cleveland will at least win one of their next seven games. I am not betting on it this week, but they might have something to be thankful for when they travel to Cincinnati next week. -- JAGUARS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (no line) Miami Dolphins: I was surprised that the Buccaneers got a victory over the New York Jets 15-10 last Sunday. But how would I have known? I haven't watched Tampa Bay once this year. I have only seen the depths of the Dolphins ineptitude lately because they have played in prime time two of the last three weeks. Now that they are playing a 1 p.m. game this Sunday, I can avoid watching either of these teams. I recommend you do the same. -- BUCCANEERS
Arizona Cardinals vs. (-1.0) Houston Texans: Oh, boy, not hyped on this game, either. Houston has lost three straight games since turning the offense over to QB Tom Savage following Deshaun Watson's injury. Due to injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, the Cardinals will be handing the keys to Blaine Gabbert who has a 9-31 career record as a starter. That's three pretty bad games so far. -- TEXANS
Washington Redskins vs. (-7.5) New Orleans Saints: The book on the Saints used to be "great offense, bad defense" -- not so now. New Orleans has the 2nd ranked offense, 8th ranked defense, and have won seven straight. Washington went to Seattle two weeks ago, and secured a big win over the Seahawks. But the Redskins returned to their inconsistent form last week, and dropped a winnable game against the Minnesota Vikings at home. -- SAINTS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. (+10.5) New York Giants: New York has lost their last three games by 17, 34, and 10 points. The closest game -- ten points isn't that close, mind you -- was to the woeful San Francisco 49ers. That is the 49ers only win this year. Kansas City had last week off, and their coach, Andy Reid, is 16-2 coming off a bye week. -- CHIEFS
Los Angeles Rams vs. (-2.5) Minnesota Vikings: OK, this is a great game between two division-leading, 7-2 teams. The Rams will bring the 3rd ranked offense quarterbacked by Jared Goff, and powered by excellent skill players like RB Todd Gurley and WR Robert Woods. But I am slightly more confident in the Vikings 5th ranked defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this year. In this toss-up game, I will go with the home team. -- VIKINGS
Baltimore Ravens vs. (+2.0) Green Bay Packers: Green Bay finally got a win 23-16 win over the Chicago Bears with backup QB Brent Hundley at the helm last week. Getting a win this week will be a much taller order for the young quarterback. Baltimore has the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL, allowing on 184 yards a game through the air. The Ravens might be able to start a little playoff run this week. After the Packers, four of their next six games are against teams with a losing record currently. -- RAVENS
Detroit Lions vs. (+3.0) Chicago Bears: Detroit is on a mini-run right now after winning their last two games over the Packers and Browns. That's not elite competition, but you need to win the games you should win. The Chicago defense is very solid, but rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky has struggled as you might expect. Lions TE Eric Ebron is a fan of his former college teammate, Trubisky, but he thinks the Lions will kick his ass. I agree with Ebron. -- LIONS
Buffalo Bills vs. (-6.0) Los Angeles Chargers: The Bills are doing it again -- great start, bad finish to a season. They have lost two straight, and they lost by 37 points last week against the Saints...at home! Now they have to make the dreaded coast-to-coast trip. The Chargers are a bag of smashed...well, smashed things and now I am reading that QB Philip Rivers might have a foggy brain after some heavy hits. Look, Rivers has made a ton of money and has eight kids -- he is already taken care of for life. Get out there and win this one, Philip! I don't care if you are getting spoon-fed oatmeal in 20 years. Entertain me! -- CHARGERS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. (-2.5) Denver Broncos: I started doing these capsules because I truly think I am decent at it and there might be a dozen people that will enjoy it. After starting, I have to see it through and do it every week (although, I did miss one week for our oldest child's confirmation weekend). It is games like this that make me want to quit this effort. You have to put tremendous brain power into predicting worthless games like this one. At first glance, having read nothing, my gut said, "Broncos, easy." Denver has the 4th rated defense in the NFL, and the Bengals stink ("stink" isn't what my gut said). Then I did some research and found the Broncos have lost five straight, and gave up 41 and 51 points in the last two! So I looked again at the Bengals -- they have lost two in a row, but they have been close games. Cincinnati also has the WORST offense in the NFL. Dude, this could go either way, it really doesn't matter...I am going with the home favorite (Thank God that's over). -- BRONCOS
New England Patriots vs. (+7.0) Oakland Raiders: I really thought the Raiders were a playoff team this year. We all knew the Patriots were going to make the playoffs. New England under coach Bill Belichick is the most amazingly consistent team in all of professional sports, and I hate them. Tommy, Micky, and Paddy are such insufferable douche bags when they brag about "Tahhmy" Brady after a few pints at McGillicuddy's. Did you know "Fuck You Tom Brady" was a thing on Twitter? Me neither, love it though. -- PATRIOTS
Philadelphia Eagles vs. (+5.0) Dallas Cowboys: Doing the Malcolm Gladwell method of picking games, you easily selected the Philadelphia in this game. The Eagles had last week off, and the Cowboys will not have RB Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas will be missing defensive leader LB Sean Lee, as well. This is the type of game -- underdog Cowboys, division rival -- that something against the grain happens. I am not betting on that however. -- EAGLES
Atlanta Falcons vs. (-3.0) Seattle Seahawks: This should be a very interesting game. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan may have an opportunity to complete a few more passes against Seattle's vaunted Legion of Boom since CB Richard Sherman is out. The Falcons looked impressive last week beating up the Cowboys 27-7. I know I lean on this a lot, but it matters...the Seahawks have had an extra few days since their 22-16 Thursday night victory over the Arizona Cardinals Nov. 9. -- SEAHAWKS
Oooh, I smell sausage from the kitchen. I need to go eat breakfast. I already had to drop our son off at wrestling practice earlier this morning. I picked up some pumpkin muffins and some flowers for my "special lady friend" on the way home. Today is going to be a good day.
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