AFC East Preview
My buddy Dan Head got us going with an NFC East preview on Monday. While reading his blog post, I was reminded how competitive that division will be. Three of the teams in the NFC East have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
In my AFC East preview below, you will see that two of the teams in the division have absolutely no chance at making the playoffs this year and the chances for a third started to drop drastically during training camp. But hey, we all have pick 'em leagues to compete in and we need information on all teams, even the most moribund. Seriously, this division stinks like a dumpster fire of fish, tires and hospital waste. Enjoy the dumpster dive.
New England Patriots
Patty, Mick and Danny Boy have been toasting another New England Patriot Super Bowl victory down at McGillicuddy's since February. Boorish Boston backers are the worst and will likely get to celebrate again following this season. Tom Brady might be turning 40 in August, but he shows no signs of slowing down and the Patriots added a ton of free agent talent over the offseason.
Brady missed the first four games last year and TE Rob Gronkowski missed the final eight of the regular season and all of the playoffs...and...they...still...won...the...Super...Bowl. Ugh. Big Gronk returns this year following his third back surgery and New England added significant offensive talent with the additions of WR Brandin Cooks, RB Mike Gillislee and RB Rex Burkhead. This offense is going to be very tough to stop.
New England had the 3rd best rushing defense last year and they added CB Stephen Gilmore to an already solid secondary adept at limiting the passing game. The Patriots defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year and snagged 12 more turnovers then their offense gave away. No big names here, but a very solid unit.
ESPN FPI: +9.2; 11.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 12.5 wins
Ever since the 2004 Boston Red Sox won the World Series and Curt Schilling went on his bloody sock tour, Boston sports fans have been unbearable. Seriously, the most wicked obnoxious football fans I have ever run into have been Patriots zealots of the last ten years. When the Patriots win the AFC East again, I will salute all the Boston bros drinking beers at McGreevy's on Boylston with two big middle finguhz. Fuck Tom.
Miami Dolphins
After starting 1-4, the 2016 Miami Dolphins finished 10-6 -- that's a little 9-2 run, and that is huge. Rookie Coach Adam Gase and the Dolphins completed that stretch without starting QB Ryan Tannehill in the last three games of the season. I still wonder if Miami is legitimate, or maybe last year was some beginner's luck awaiting a regression to the mean.
The offense is not prolific, but should be proficient. Jay Cutler is a serviceable replacement for the again injured Tannehill, RB Jay Ajayi emerged as a top-notch rusher last year and the receiving corps is deep. It is the defensive side of the ball that will be the Dolphin's Achilles heal.
Last year, their defense ranked 29th overall and 30th against the run. Miami did draft five defenders with their seven draft picks, but only picked up one defensive difference maker in the free agent market, LB Lawrence Timmons. Betting on a crop of rookies to turn around a moribund defense is a crap shoot.
ESPN FPI: -1.1; 7 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Justis Mosqueda's Dolphins season preview for SettingtheEdge.com explains the numbers that make me think Miami is doomed for a regression. Teams that went more than two games above 0.500 in close games (a touchdown or less) one year, usually do poorly in close games the next year. The Dolphins went 8-2 last year in close games. There just isn't enough there to continue to be that lucky.
Buffalo Bills
The 2017 Buffalo Bills will be a team in transition. Head coach Rex Ryan was relieved of his duties before the end of last season so he and his brother can engage in all the bar fights they want now. Sean McDermott, most recently the Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator, is now the man in charge and will undoubtedly install a more business like methodology.
McDermott will change the defense from Ryan's 3-4, man-to-man scheme to his preferred 4-3, zone coverage set. They will make this evolution without their best cornerback, Stephen Gilmore (now a Patriot, ouch), and leading tackler, LB Zach Brown, from last year. The Bills will need great performances from their first round pick, CB Tre'Davious White, an aging linebacker, Lorenzo Alexander and a defensive line filled with underachievers.
The offense will be in the hands of Tyrod Tayloer once again, but he will be without a top receiver, Robert Woods (613 yards) and a key running back, Mike Gillislee (517 yards). Taylor's main support will have to come from RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins. McCoy, at 29, is already past the running back drop-off age and Watkins has missed 11 games over the last two years.
ESPN FPI: -1.9; 6.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6 wins
Transitions are always fraught with challenges. Hiring McDermott is definitely a positive hire and allows Buffalo to move on from the Ryan regime of bumbling and bombastic idiocy. The Bills haven't made it to the playoffs since 1999 and that string of ineptitude will continue this year.
New York Jets
Due to a recent Google glitch, if you searched "New York Jets owner," it would spit out "Tom Brady" as the answer. Brady is 24-8 lifetime versus New York and he will most likely get two more victories this year. The Jets were bad last year and everyone believes they will tank it this year as they test drive the players they have on the way to a high draft pick in 2018.
New York has three quarterbacks and all are third-string talents. They will have three new starters on their offensive line. Their best weapon is the over-30, over-worked RB Matt Forte. That's a one-way ticket on the CTE train for Mr. Forte.
The Jets defense ranked 28th of 32 teams in points allowed last year. Recognizing this need, they drafted five defenders in an attempt to turn the tide. However, it is going to be hard for them to improve with poor performing malcontents on the defensive line and two rookies most likely starting at safety.
ESPN FPI: +6; 5.2 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 4.5 wins
This is going to be a tough year for Jets fans and everyone knows it. This is the beginning of a major rebuild as players will be playing for future employment as much as trying to win games.
True Fans: Michael and Jamie Volpe
Mike Volpe: "My wife is really nervous about not having a QB. In her mind, she knows they are going to be bad and will probably compete for the first pick in the draft.
As a Miami fan it is hard to get really excited going into the season. This year I am cautiously optimistic, but I don't think they did enough to address the O-line.
If they stay healthy, make some holes for Ajayi give Cutler a clean pocket, I think they can compete with anyone. On the other hand, they are a few injuries away from being a bad team--but not as bad as the Jets."
Note on True Fans segment: I asked Bills fans their thoughts and they never replied. I didn't ask a Patriots fan.
In my AFC East preview below, you will see that two of the teams in the division have absolutely no chance at making the playoffs this year and the chances for a third started to drop drastically during training camp. But hey, we all have pick 'em leagues to compete in and we need information on all teams, even the most moribund. Seriously, this division stinks like a dumpster fire of fish, tires and hospital waste. Enjoy the dumpster dive.
New England Patriots
Patty, Mick and Danny Boy have been toasting another New England Patriot Super Bowl victory down at McGillicuddy's since February. Boorish Boston backers are the worst and will likely get to celebrate again following this season. Tom Brady might be turning 40 in August, but he shows no signs of slowing down and the Patriots added a ton of free agent talent over the offseason.
Brady missed the first four games last year and TE Rob Gronkowski missed the final eight of the regular season and all of the playoffs...and...they...still...won...the...Super...Bowl. Ugh. Big Gronk returns this year following his third back surgery and New England added significant offensive talent with the additions of WR Brandin Cooks, RB Mike Gillislee and RB Rex Burkhead. This offense is going to be very tough to stop.
New England had the 3rd best rushing defense last year and they added CB Stephen Gilmore to an already solid secondary adept at limiting the passing game. The Patriots defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year and snagged 12 more turnovers then their offense gave away. No big names here, but a very solid unit.
ESPN FPI: +9.2; 11.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 12.5 wins
Ever since the 2004 Boston Red Sox won the World Series and Curt Schilling went on his bloody sock tour, Boston sports fans have been unbearable. Seriously, the most wicked obnoxious football fans I have ever run into have been Patriots zealots of the last ten years. When the Patriots win the AFC East again, I will salute all the Boston bros drinking beers at McGreevy's on Boylston with two big middle finguhz. Fuck Tom.
Miami Dolphins
After starting 1-4, the 2016 Miami Dolphins finished 10-6 -- that's a little 9-2 run, and that is huge. Rookie Coach Adam Gase and the Dolphins completed that stretch without starting QB Ryan Tannehill in the last three games of the season. I still wonder if Miami is legitimate, or maybe last year was some beginner's luck awaiting a regression to the mean.
The offense is not prolific, but should be proficient. Jay Cutler is a serviceable replacement for the again injured Tannehill, RB Jay Ajayi emerged as a top-notch rusher last year and the receiving corps is deep. It is the defensive side of the ball that will be the Dolphin's Achilles heal.
Last year, their defense ranked 29th overall and 30th against the run. Miami did draft five defenders with their seven draft picks, but only picked up one defensive difference maker in the free agent market, LB Lawrence Timmons. Betting on a crop of rookies to turn around a moribund defense is a crap shoot.
ESPN FPI: -1.1; 7 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Justis Mosqueda's Dolphins season preview for SettingtheEdge.com explains the numbers that make me think Miami is doomed for a regression. Teams that went more than two games above 0.500 in close games (a touchdown or less) one year, usually do poorly in close games the next year. The Dolphins went 8-2 last year in close games. There just isn't enough there to continue to be that lucky.
Buffalo Bills
The 2017 Buffalo Bills will be a team in transition. Head coach Rex Ryan was relieved of his duties before the end of last season so he and his brother can engage in all the bar fights they want now. Sean McDermott, most recently the Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator, is now the man in charge and will undoubtedly install a more business like methodology.
McDermott will change the defense from Ryan's 3-4, man-to-man scheme to his preferred 4-3, zone coverage set. They will make this evolution without their best cornerback, Stephen Gilmore (now a Patriot, ouch), and leading tackler, LB Zach Brown, from last year. The Bills will need great performances from their first round pick, CB Tre'Davious White, an aging linebacker, Lorenzo Alexander and a defensive line filled with underachievers.
The offense will be in the hands of Tyrod Tayloer once again, but he will be without a top receiver, Robert Woods (613 yards) and a key running back, Mike Gillislee (517 yards). Taylor's main support will have to come from RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins. McCoy, at 29, is already past the running back drop-off age and Watkins has missed 11 games over the last two years.
ESPN FPI: -1.9; 6.8 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 6 wins
Transitions are always fraught with challenges. Hiring McDermott is definitely a positive hire and allows Buffalo to move on from the Ryan regime of bumbling and bombastic idiocy. The Bills haven't made it to the playoffs since 1999 and that string of ineptitude will continue this year.
New York Jets
Due to a recent Google glitch, if you searched "New York Jets owner," it would spit out "Tom Brady" as the answer. Brady is 24-8 lifetime versus New York and he will most likely get two more victories this year. The Jets were bad last year and everyone believes they will tank it this year as they test drive the players they have on the way to a high draft pick in 2018.
New York has three quarterbacks and all are third-string talents. They will have three new starters on their offensive line. Their best weapon is the over-30, over-worked RB Matt Forte. That's a one-way ticket on the CTE train for Mr. Forte.
The Jets defense ranked 28th of 32 teams in points allowed last year. Recognizing this need, they drafted five defenders in an attempt to turn the tide. However, it is going to be hard for them to improve with poor performing malcontents on the defensive line and two rookies most likely starting at safety.
ESPN FPI: +6; 5.2 wins
Odd Sharks Over/Under: 4.5 wins
This is going to be a tough year for Jets fans and everyone knows it. This is the beginning of a major rebuild as players will be playing for future employment as much as trying to win games.
True Fans: Michael and Jamie Volpe
As a Miami fan it is hard to get really excited going into the season. This year I am cautiously optimistic, but I don't think they did enough to address the O-line.
If they stay healthy, make some holes for Ajayi give Cutler a clean pocket, I think they can compete with anyone. On the other hand, they are a few injuries away from being a bad team--but not as bad as the Jets."
Note on True Fans segment: I asked Bills fans their thoughts and they never replied. I didn't ask a Patriots fan.
I really like Tyrod Taylor & would like to see him do well. One of Army's QB commits, currently at the Prep School, turned me on to Taylor's game via Twitter. He said that Taylor is the guy all the Army QBs want to be because he can do it all, pretty much with equal facility.
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