Late-Mid-Season College Basketball Check-In w/HS Dance Competition Update
College Basketball Late-Mid-Season Check-In
Last year we ran across data highlighting the historical significance of the KenPom ratings on identifying the potential NCAA men’s basketball tournament champion. An article by Reed Wallach in Sports Illustrated from last February noted that since “2002, all but two [eventual champions] have been inside [both] KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20.” Last year’s champion, Florida, was also in the top 20 for both metrics.
To get an idea on which teams we need to be tracking, we dug into the current KenPom rankings to see who the true contenders might be. Here are the teams that are top 20 in both ratings, a handful that are close, two teams “local” to the HOTPO and the most beautiful Cinderella of the moment. The chart below of the second annual HOTPO 15 is “as of Feb. 19” and includes record, AP rank, KenPom rankings and Joe Lunardi’s assessment on likely tourney admission with seeds.
|
School |
Record |
AP Rank |
aO Rank |
aD Rank |
Lunardi
Bracket |
|
Michigan |
25-1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
Midwest 1 |
|
Duke |
24-2 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
East 1 |
|
Arizona |
24-2 |
4 |
11 |
3 |
West 1 |
|
Houston |
23-3 |
2 |
10 |
7 |
South 1 |
|
Florida |
20-6 |
12 |
16 |
4 |
South 3 |
|
Iowa State |
23-3 |
6 |
15 |
8 |
Midwest 2 |
|
Vanderbilt |
21-5 |
19 |
14 |
19 |
West 3 |
|
Illinois |
22-5 |
10 |
1 |
23 |
West 2 |
|
Purdue |
21-5 |
7 |
2 |
27 |
South 2 |
|
UConn |
24-3 |
5 |
24 |
13 |
East 2 |
|
Louisville |
19-7 |
21 |
12 |
29 |
West 5 |
|
Texas Tech |
19-7 |
13 |
17 |
24 |
South 5 |
|
Indiana |
17-9 |
NA |
37 |
48 |
Out |
|
VCU |
21-6 |
NA |
44 |
68 |
West 11, First Four |
|
Miami OH |
26-0 |
22 |
60 |
149 |
Midwest 11 |
Isaac Trotter of CBS Sports sees, unsurprisingly, eight of the above teams as true contenders for this 2026 championship.
- Michigan: “feels inevitable since its strengths are so dominant”
- Duke: two great players, but weaknesses at point guard and center
- Arizona: a massive, muscle-bound team that may be lacking 3-point shooting
- Houston: “entire starting five could play in the NBA one day”
- Illinois: uses “size, length and positioning” to mask lack of athleticism
- Florida: offensive rebounding and offensive transition are strengths, but also lack 3-point shooting
- Iowa State: defense is “vulnerable both on the offensive glass and allowing some open 3-pointers”
- UConn: dangerous offense, but give up a “boatload of offensive rebounds” on the defensive end
Are There Cinderellas Anymore?
Seeding for the NCAA tournament began in 1979. Since then, there have only been two Final Fours populated solely by #1 seeds – 2008 and 2025. But it does seem like things slanted heavily to the power four conferences last year and that midnight will come very early again this year for big dance Cinderellas.
There is not much out there in the media of reporters identifying even dark horse candidates that are outside the HOTPO 15. It took a lot of digging to find an advocate for a potential Cinderella. C. J. Moore of The Athletic highlights three contenders and one “wild card” not previously mentioned that he thinks can win it all.
- Nebraska: “most disciplined, resilient, hardest-playing team in the country”
- Michigan State: “best defense team in the country, one of the best rebounding teams in the country”
- Gonzaga: KenPom #1 earlier this year, before a swoon
- BYU: elite scoring trio leads electric offense
Is There a Team to NOT Cheer For?
Yes, UCLA, because their coach Mick Cronin has turned into a never-before-seen, beyond-elite-level jackass. He is condescending jerk of the highest order in every postgame press conference or media scrum and constantly throws his players under the bus. He makes prime Gregg Popovich look like Mr. Rogers.
I agree with Gregg Doyel of the Indianapolis Star, Cronin is just a bully. He is in a power position and when he is having a bad day, those with less power in his orbit will pay for it. He isn’t worthy of his position or those he pretends to lead.
HS Dance Competition Update
The HOTPO traveled to Orlando, Florida to cover the West Potomac Dance Team compete in the National Dance Alliance national championships. This year's dance nationals culminates HOTPO coverage of high school sports. We are very grateful for the support of the coaches, parents and sponsors of the WPDT and very proud of the Class of 2026 dancers. Go Wolverines!
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