NFL Week 10 Picks w/CFB Report
The HOTPO staff was in College Park, Maryland, Saturday to cover the Indiana Hoosiers freight train barreling through their schedule.
Maryland kept it close early. It was 20-10 with 9:49 to go in the third quarter. However, things got out of hand in the second half as the Hoosiers plowed to a 55-10 victory.
If the final margin of a game is 45 points, many things went well for the victors. Jared Kelly of Peegs highlighted two Indiana superlatives in a recent article:
- Indiana rushed for 367 yards, four touchdowns and averaged 7.1 yards per carry.
- Indiana only allowed 37 rushing yards on 17 carries.
The Hoosiers also turned the Terrapins over five times. If you are going to out rush your opponent by more than 300 yards and turn them over five times, you will likely coast to victory. After a slow start, Indiana left no doubt.
It looks like the Hoosiers are on a collision course to meet #1 Ohio State in the Big Ten conference championship game. If they win their three remaining games, even a loss in the Big Ten title tilt would result in an invite to the college football playoff. However, no game is a given and Indiana still has a talented Penn State team and in-state rival Purdue on the schedule.
The stadium at College Park is on campus so all the good parking is already taken and parking for non-season ticket holders is limited to dispersed lily pads throughout campus and a few churches right off campus. Tailgating at the churches is prohibited, but the price is nice. When parking outside of the few key parking lots, you need to have a “man on the inside” with access to the tailgate action in the main parking areas.
With the limitations put on entrances and thru-streets on campus, you also need to do a good map recon to get the proper entry point and ensure you leave plenty of time for the logjam you will encounter no matter which way you approach the campus and available parking. My crew does have a “man on the inside” and is well-trained at planning and packing appropriately. This time we packed essentials in portable, disposable packs and were able to maneuver to our connection for another great day of tailgating on campus before the game.
Let’s unbury the lead though…I didn’t think Hoosier football fans would travel like some traditional powers with massive fanbases. Not only did they travel well with many folks in Indiana gear populating the stadium, but multiple people I know were in attendance. I ran into two people I went to high school with (and hadn’t seen in 30+ years) and one soldier I served with in Iraq, who is a Hoosier expat like me.
The Indiana victory was cool, but the time with the crew on the inside and seeing so many Hoosiers from way back in the past were by far the highlights of the day.
Let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 10 Picks
Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin, Germany): Atlanta will be desperate to end a three-tame losing streak and there are now questions if Indianapolis QB Danny Jones might be regressing to his historical, mediocre mean. – FALCONS
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5): Carolina has won 4 of 5 and are coming off a big 16-13 victory over the Packers in Green Bay. New Orleans is 1-8 and on their second four-game losing streak of the year. Desperation won’t help the Saints. – PANTHERS
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-5): The Giants defense has given up at least 32 points in the last three games, all losses. The Bears have the 6th best scoring offense at 26.9 points per game. Chicago has a weak defense as well (26th ranked in yards allowed per game at 368.8), but New York is missing key playmakers due to injury. – BEARS
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Houston Texans: The Jaguars offense got going last week in a 30-29 win versus the Raiders in Las Vegas, but they only scored 7 and 12 points in previous two weeks, both losses. The Texans have the top-rated defense in yards allowed per game at 267.4. Houston will be hampered greatly by the loss of QB C.J. Stroud due to a concussion, as reported by Ryan Gilbert of Sports Illustrated. – JAGUARS
Buffalo Bills (-9) at Miami Dolphins: This is a possible “trap” for Buffalo following their annual regular season victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, 28-21, last week, but Miami is just terrible. – BILLS
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Minnesota Vikings: Both of these teams are hard to measure because they have weathered chunks of this season without their starting quarterbacks. Minnesota got a massive victory of the Lions in Detroit last week, 27-24, with starting QB J.J. McCarthy back under center, but he only threw for 143 yards and had an INT. Baltimore starting QB Lamar Jackson is a former MVP and he threw for four touchdowns in a romp over Miam last week, 28-6. – RAVENS
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at New York Jets: New York traded defensive stalwarts DB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams this week. Ayrton Ostly of the USA Today thinks those trades set the Jets up for future success, but likely guarantee more losing this year, which they are already adept at doing. Cleveland is pretty adept at losing as well, but they do have the 2nd ranked overall defense. – BROWNS
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): Did you know that New England is on a six-game winning streak and have the 12th rated offense and 9th rated defense? Tampa Bay has the 15th rated defense and 17th rated offense – lower rated than their opponent this week on both sides of the ball. Owen Crisafulli of NESN points out that the Patriots have played possibly the weakest schedule in the NFL and the Buccaneers are coming off a bye week. – BUCCANEERS
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): Arizona is only 3-5, but they haven’t lost any of those games by more than four points – they are always in it. Seattle is 6-2 and both of their losses came by four points. The Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett just seems to miss a couple of easy throws anytime I see him play, which will be critical in a close game. – SEAHAWKS
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers beat the Rams 26-23 in OT in Los Angeles, Oct. 2 when they were missing QB Brock Purdy, DL Nick Bosa and TE George Kittle, which was a bit of a shocker. Since then, Los Angeles has won three straight by 14, 28 and 24 points. The 49ers still have 19 players on the injured list, while the Rams only have nine. – RAMS
Detroit Lions (-8) at Washington Commanders: Blowout alert! The Commanders are the oldest team in the NFL and riddled with injuries. The Lions will be salty coming off an unexpected loss at home. – LIONS
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3): While I nailed my Steelers over Colts pick last week, that win was a little “smoke and mirrors.” Pittsburgh secured six turnovers, but was outgained both in the air and on the ground by a total of 143 yards, 368 to 225. Los Angeles also has the 5th rated offense and 6th rated defense, too – THAT is damn good. – CHARGERS
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5): This line surprises me. Green Bay is coming off the previously mentioned loss to Carolina and Philadelphia is coming off a bye. Zach Berman of The Athletic recently tweeted: “The Eagles are 6-1 under Sirianni with 11-plus days of rest between games. (This filters out the Thursday games.) The only loss was Super Bowl LVII.” – EAGLES
Next week: the plan is to bring more college football coverage with the picks again next week. Enjoy the games.
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