NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Starts Today (For Real)
The Monday following the NCAA men's tournament bracket reveal is a day you can find succinct reviews for each region that include potential upsets, possible Cinderellas and Final Four predictions. During the rest of the week, the articles, insights and data keep coming at a high rate of speed. By the true opening of the tournament on Thursday (one of the better sports days of the year), you are likely inundated with information and just ready to watch some basketball.
Therefore, going to still get a weekly rep in, but we will keep it short.
Heard Mark Packer of the ACC Network on local sports radio on Monday and he dropped some serious nuggets of wisdom.
The SEC has not had a top three seed make the Final Four in 10 years. Fourteen of 16 SEC teams made the tournament and five earned top three seeds (Auburn, 1 South; Florida, 1 West; Alabama, 2 East; Tennessee, 2 East; Kentucky, 3 East) this year, according to Nick Bromberg of Yahoo Sports. You would think the SEC breaks that negative streak this year and getting two teams in the Final Four is a legitimate possibility.
The Big 10 has had 144 teams make the tournament since their last national title (Michigan State, 2000). Big 10 teams are usually deserving of their invites, but clearly not the type of teams you want to select for deep runs in your pool bracket. Michigan State leads the pack of eight Big 10 teams invited this year and Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune thinks they have the best chance of ending the conference drought.
One double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 for 15 straight tournaments (and 36 of 38!). So, you probably need to find a Cinderella to get to the second weekend, but not much more than that. Kyle Wood of Athlon Sports reviewed the five #11 seeds that have made the Final Four since 2006 - it's extremely rare.
Two Additional Factoids That Caught My Eye
Jordan Mendoza of the USA Today highlighted Gonzaga has made it to the second weekend (Sweet 16) the last nine years. Being a #8 seed in the Midwest, Mendoza and other prognosticators are predicting that streak ends this year at the hands of the #1 seed Houston Cougars. I agree, but if that game comes to fruition, it will likely be close and high-high drama - set an appointment on your phone for that one.
From Adam Hess of WRJN Racine (Wisconsin): The closest anyone has come to a perfect March Madness bracket, according to the NCAA, was in 2019 when an Ohio man predicted the first 49 games correctly, a record that still stands. Gregg Nigl, a neurologist from Columbus, Ohio, set the record, but his streak ended when #3 Purdue defeated #2 Tennessee in the Sweet 16, a game that was the 50th game of the tournament. Mind blowing!
Wrap-Up Thoughts
Since we have been following the HOTPO 15, I have been and am thinking through KenPom-tinged lenses. Therefore, I built a fairly "chalky" bracket. I am going with Auburn, Duke, St. John's and Kentucky in the Final Four with Auburn beating Duke for the title.
I don't believe UNC deserved their invite, but think they will make the most of it. They match up well against Ole Miss and then conceivably will meet an Iowa State team missing their best scorer. The Tar Heels will make the Sweet 16 and lose there to Michigan State.
The Big 10 will maintain their aversion to winning the NCAA tournament. Michigan State and Wisconsin can make the Elite 8, but that is as good as it gets. We have been following Michigan and Maryland in the HOTPO 15, but the Wolverines will likely see Auburn in the Sweet 16 and Maryland just doesn't have the depth to run the six-game gauntlet.
Finish that bracket and enjoy the games!
Local Fantasy Football League Does It Right
The SOFA Fantasy Football League finally closed out its 2024 season with the traditional year-end banquet last weekend at the Alexandria Beer Garden. League members enjoyed a handsome repast, congratulated the champions and thanked the commissioner and assistant to the commissioner for handling admin & logistics. If you are in Old Town Alexandria this afternoon, you will have multiple opportunities to run into league members and local haunts watching the first round of the tournament.
For the record, HOTPO finished on the podium again this year (3rd place in a 14-team league). That is our (and it is an "our" thing, each team consists of two "owners") third time on the podium since our one and only championship in 2017.
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