NFL Season & Week 1 Predictions

If you are a degenerate sports fan, the Labor Day weekend is NOT for travel. It is for participating in fantasy football drafts (and some yard work). The HOTPO staff was busy drafting in-person for a local league and a live online draft for a family-oriented effort. I had to rely on auto draft for two other leagues, and I know that is too many, but I can’t resist these mini-communities.

Some of the esteemed members of the SOFA (Slightly Overweight Fathers of Alexandria) Fantasy Football League conducting their 16th annual draft.

Differing levels of excitement within the HOTPO staff in the "war room" for a family-oriented fantasy football league draft.

The few days following Labor Day are for finalizing preseason predictions. As promised, we present the HOTPO 2024 Official Preseason Playoff Predictions, in seed order. Yellow on the left annotates teams that will drop from the playoff roles and green on the right highlights teams that were not in the playoffs last year. 

The recent norm is for six new teams to make it to the playoffs each year, but I only selected four (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and the New York Jets). Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post also believes Atlanta and Cincinnati can return to the playoffs this year, but he thinks Indianapolis, Seattle, Chicago and the Los Angeles Chargers have potential to play in the postseason, as well. Jacksonville is the wildest of wild card picks with the lowest odds of all the teams on the HOTPO list to make the playoffs.

To go further out on a limb, HOTPO says:

• AFC Championship Game: Houston over Baltimore
• NFC Championship Game: Detroit over Philadelphia
• Super Bowl LIX: Houston over Detroit

What can blow these predictions up?

Many of the NFC contenders are older teams and there have been signs of internal strife in Dallas, Philadelphia and San Francisco. The AFC is loaded with quality teams so all the favorites are going to have to bring it every week or they will end up on the outside of the playoffs. Who is to say Miami and the Los Angeles Chargers can’t pull of a streak and bump a team or two? 

Let’s fly through some Week 1 picks.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3): this is a toss-up and teams are still working things out in Week 1. Sticking with the home team. – CHIEFS

Green Bay Packers “at” Philadelphia Eagles (-2), in Sao Paulo, Brazil: Green Bay had a bad run defense last year and Philadelphia added Saquon Barkley to bolster their rushing offense. - EAGLES 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3): I trust Kirk Cousins more than Russell Wilson, which is something I never thought I would say just a few short years ago. – FALCONS

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5): Buffalo is playing for trophies and Arizona is still trying to figure some things out. – BILLS

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4): Tennessee is bad and will accelerate the hype train for Chicago QB Caleb Williams. - BEARS 

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8): New England is awful and Cincinnati has QB Joe Burrow back under center. – BENGALS

Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts: Houston is so loaded they are a road favorite against a division rival. – TEXANS

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5): This should be a tightly contested battle between two playoff-worthy teams. – DOLPHINS

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4): Carolina is the type of team you pick against in a survivor pool many, many times. – SAINTS

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New York Giants: Minnesota is a rare road favorite, but I will be picking against QB Sam Darnold until he proves me wrong, multiple times. – GIANTS

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3): Jim Harbaugh is now the Los Angeles coach and QB Justin Herbert seems to be healthy. – CHARGERS

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6): I have read some positive stuff about rookie Seattle head coach Mike MacDonald and what he is doing with that defense. – SEAHAWKS

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5): Even though the Dallas “all in” offseason was a dud, I am not sold on Cleveland, yet. – COWBOYS

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): A road debut is always tough for a rookie quarterback and Washington has one in Jayden Daniels. – BUCCANEERS

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5): Taking the home team it what should be a great opening weekend, Sunday night game. – LIONS

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4): Another spectacular primetime matchup. – 49ERS