NFL Takes a Break, NCAA Hoops Heats Up
Last Sunday, my son asked me who I would predict as this year's NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four participants.
I told him something like, "Shoot, I don't know. I have been so focused on the NFL that I have no idea."
It was an excellent question at the perfect time. We are now more than halfway through the college basketball season, and we have more than a week until the Super Bowl. It is time for a mid-season prediction on the NCAA tournament to start prepping the mind for March Madness office pools.
Being an unpaid, unskilled blogger, I had to narrow down the sample size of teams that I would assess.
This is what I chose to examine:
AP Poll Top 4
No. 1 Villanova 18-1 Overall, 5-1 Big East (1st):
Villanova is 3-0 versus top 25 teams, and their only loss was to a solid Butler team, 101-93. In their last two games, the Wildcats have hammered Georgetown by 32 and Connecticut by 20.Villanova won the NCAA championship two years ago, but have departed the tournament in the first or second round in six of the last seven tournaments.It's hard to be disappointed with that type of track record, but four second round exits as a #1 or #2 seed in the last seven tournament appearances is a disturbing trend.
Villanova is on track to make the tournament as a top seed. They can lean on four upperclassmen in their regular rotation, but that rotation only goes six deep.
No. 2 Virginia 18-1 Overall, 7-0 ACC (1st):
The Cavaliers are coming off a good week having pounded Virginia Tech by 26, and dominating North Carolina in an 81-69 victory. In the last four tournaments, Virginia has a run to the Sweet Sixteen, and a trip to the Elite Eight. You have to think coach Tony Bennett is getting close to making his first run to the Final Four.
The Cavaliers allow the fewest points of any team in the nation (52.5 points per game), but they are only the 282nd best team at putting the ball in the basket. Their top three scorers all shoot better than 40 percent when they shoot from three-point range, so there is potential to boost that anemic offensive output.
NOTE: Virginia defeated No. 18 Clemson 61-36 Jan. 23 after I penned the above capsule. That is the fewest points ever allowed by the Cavaliers versus a ranked foe in their history, according to Jamie Oakes of Wahoos247.
No. 3 Purdue 19-2 Overall, 8-0 Big Ten (1st):
I had a long wait at the barber shop on Saturday, and took in a lot of Purdue's 87-64 trouncing of Iowa. The Boilermakers looked incredible -- constant movement on offense, and lethal outside shooting. Purdue has ten more conference games, and will play the three other top Big 10 teams (No. 6 Michigan State, No. 13 Ohio State, and No. 25 Michigan) in their next six contests. Travis Miller of the HammerandRails blog thinks if the Boilermakers can make it to their Feb. 10 road game at Michigan State still undefeated in conference play, they will have a #1 tournament seed locked up.
Purdue coach Matt Painter has never got the Boilers past the Sweet Sixteen in 12 years, Purdue hasn't been to a Final Four in 38 years, and no team has gone undefeated in Big Ten play in 43 years. All are still in play.
No. 4 Duke 17-2 Overall, 5-2 ACC (3rd):
Duke has won five straight games, and that includes 27 and 35-point victories. The Blue Devils average more points per game (91.7) than any team in the nation, and I are number one in the CBSSports.com RPI (Rating Percentage Index which is based on wins, losses, and strength of schedule). They are also 5-0 against top 50 ranked teams. Senior G Grayson Allen is the second-leading scorer and provides Duke two tournament essentials: upperclass leadership on the floor, and someone the world can easily hate.
The five players, besides Allen, that have played every game, and complete the Blue Devils top-six scorers are all freshmen. Seems like a lot of youngsters for the pressure cooker of the tournament.
Blue Bloods Outside of the AP Top 4
No. 5 Kansas 16-4 Overall, 6-2 Big 12 (1st):
Kansas lost to Oklahoma 85-80 in Norman Jan. 23. The Jayhawks relinquished a late 10-point lead primarily due to poor free throw shooting. Two of the seven players that have played every game for Kansas shoot worse than 50 percent from the charity stripe, and another that only hits 65 percent of his free throws. Texas Tech used a 44-29 rebounding advantage to defeat the Jayhawks 85-73, Jan. 2, according to Matt Galloway of the Topeka Capital-Journal. Kansas ranks 223rd in free throw percentage (69.5) and 198th in rebound margin (+0.6). These are potentially significant issues.
No. 10 North Carolina 16- 5 Overall, 5-3 ACC (5th):
Coach Roy Williams has been incredibly successful at North Carolina since taking over prior to the 2003-04 season. In those 14 seasons, he has only missed the tournament once (2010), won three championships (2005, 2009, 2017), and possibly most incredible, never been ousted in the first round of the tournament. The Tar Heels top five scorers are all upperclassmen, but Williams has managed to work six lowerclassmen into the majority of their games. I was NOT feeling these guys before doing research, but I am now.
Unranked Kentucky 15-5 Overall, 5-3 SEC (3rd):
Kentucky may have dropped out of the AP Top 25, but they are ranked 17th in the RPI. The Wildcats AP rank plummeted due to losing three of their last six games. Kyle Tucker of SECCountry sees similarities between this Kentucky team, and the 2014 version that struggled through the year, barely making the tournament as a No. 8 seed. That 2014 team advanced to the Final Four, losing in the national championship game.
Unranked UCLA 13-7 Overall, 4-4 PAC-12 (5th):
The Bruins are ranked 63rd in the RPI. Without significant improvement, they will be hard pressed to make the tournament without winning the PAC-12 conference tournament. [Insert poop emoji here.]
Unranked Indiana 12-8 Overall, 5-3 Big Ten (5th):
Indiana is struggling to win games in a mediocre Big Ten, and got jack-hammered 85-57 by Michigan State Jan. 19. Hoosier fans might want to plan spring break around opening the NIT on the road again this year.
Preseason Dark Horse Candidates
No. 8 Xavier 18-3 Overall, 6-2 Big East (2nd): The Musketeers have two Top 25 victories, and carry a No. 4 ranking in the RPI. Xavier has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen three times and the Elite Eight once (last year) in their seven trips to the tournament under coach Chris Mack. The Musketeers have three seniors leading the team in scoring, and are ready to take at least one more step in March.
No. 9 Cincinnati 17-2 Overall, 6-0 ACC (1st): Cincinnati has won ten straight games, but Tom Groeschen of Cincinnati.com reports that coach Mick Cronin is not happy with the team's performance of late. The Bearcats play in a weak conference, and may not get the challenges they need throughout the season to prepare them for the tournament crucible.
Unranked Seton Hall 15-5 Overall, 4-3 Big East (5th): Seton Hall blew a ten-point, second-half lead at home in their 73-64 loss to Xavier, Jan. 23. Jerry Carino of the Asbury Park Press thinks a disappearing offense and a lack of depth were keys to the loss. You might be able to sneak by in March without depth, but you can't survive an offense that fails against top-notch opponents.
Unranked Texas Agricultural and Mechanical 13-7 Overall, 2-6 SEC (12th): Looks like Boozell might have missed on this preseason dark horse prediction.
Unranked Notre Dame 13-7 Overall, 3-4 ACC (12th): Notre Dame has a worse RPI than UCLA. Like the Bruins, they are in danger of not getting invited to the tournament at all.
Unranked Minnesota 14-9 Overall, 3-7 Big Ten (11th): The Golden Gophers are 3-7 in Big Ten conference play. That won't do.
So Who Are the Final Four?
No. 6 Michigan State, No. 7 West Virginia, No. 11 Arizona, and No. 12 Oklahoma could have been included in this conversation, but I am not going cover every team in late January. This blog post is just like the NCAA Tournament. Not every team makes it.
This is the time to start actually paying attention to the NCAA basketball regular season. We have a little more than seven weeks of regular season play before conference tournaments begin. Now is about the time it really gets interesting.
After this little review, I am feeling better prepared for the stretch run, and better able to answer my son's question.
I will say my early, non-binding Final Four prediction is Virginia, Purdue, North Carolina, and Xavier.
NOTE: Don't take this to your bookie. I have never done well in NCAA Tournament office pools.
I told him something like, "Shoot, I don't know. I have been so focused on the NFL that I have no idea."
It was an excellent question at the perfect time. We are now more than halfway through the college basketball season, and we have more than a week until the Super Bowl. It is time for a mid-season prediction on the NCAA tournament to start prepping the mind for March Madness office pools.
Being an unpaid, unskilled blogger, I had to narrow down the sample size of teams that I would assess.
This is what I chose to examine:
- Top 4 teams in the Associated Press poll
- Blue Blood programs outside of the Top 4
- Preseason Dark Horse candidates (from NCAA.com article by Joe Boozell)
AP Poll Top 4
No. 1 Villanova 18-1 Overall, 5-1 Big East (1st):
Villanova is 3-0 versus top 25 teams, and their only loss was to a solid Butler team, 101-93. In their last two games, the Wildcats have hammered Georgetown by 32 and Connecticut by 20.Villanova won the NCAA championship two years ago, but have departed the tournament in the first or second round in six of the last seven tournaments.It's hard to be disappointed with that type of track record, but four second round exits as a #1 or #2 seed in the last seven tournament appearances is a disturbing trend.
Villanova is on track to make the tournament as a top seed. They can lean on four upperclassmen in their regular rotation, but that rotation only goes six deep.
No. 2 Virginia 18-1 Overall, 7-0 ACC (1st):
The Cavaliers are coming off a good week having pounded Virginia Tech by 26, and dominating North Carolina in an 81-69 victory. In the last four tournaments, Virginia has a run to the Sweet Sixteen, and a trip to the Elite Eight. You have to think coach Tony Bennett is getting close to making his first run to the Final Four.
The Cavaliers allow the fewest points of any team in the nation (52.5 points per game), but they are only the 282nd best team at putting the ball in the basket. Their top three scorers all shoot better than 40 percent when they shoot from three-point range, so there is potential to boost that anemic offensive output.
NOTE: Virginia defeated No. 18 Clemson 61-36 Jan. 23 after I penned the above capsule. That is the fewest points ever allowed by the Cavaliers versus a ranked foe in their history, according to Jamie Oakes of Wahoos247.
No. 3 Purdue 19-2 Overall, 8-0 Big Ten (1st):
I had a long wait at the barber shop on Saturday, and took in a lot of Purdue's 87-64 trouncing of Iowa. The Boilermakers looked incredible -- constant movement on offense, and lethal outside shooting. Purdue has ten more conference games, and will play the three other top Big 10 teams (No. 6 Michigan State, No. 13 Ohio State, and No. 25 Michigan) in their next six contests. Travis Miller of the HammerandRails blog thinks if the Boilermakers can make it to their Feb. 10 road game at Michigan State still undefeated in conference play, they will have a #1 tournament seed locked up.
Purdue coach Matt Painter has never got the Boilers past the Sweet Sixteen in 12 years, Purdue hasn't been to a Final Four in 38 years, and no team has gone undefeated in Big Ten play in 43 years. All are still in play.
No. 4 Duke 17-2 Overall, 5-2 ACC (3rd):
Duke has won five straight games, and that includes 27 and 35-point victories. The Blue Devils average more points per game (91.7) than any team in the nation, and I are number one in the CBSSports.com RPI (Rating Percentage Index which is based on wins, losses, and strength of schedule). They are also 5-0 against top 50 ranked teams. Senior G Grayson Allen is the second-leading scorer and provides Duke two tournament essentials: upperclass leadership on the floor, and someone the world can easily hate.
The five players, besides Allen, that have played every game, and complete the Blue Devils top-six scorers are all freshmen. Seems like a lot of youngsters for the pressure cooker of the tournament.
Blue Bloods Outside of the AP Top 4
No. 5 Kansas 16-4 Overall, 6-2 Big 12 (1st):
Kansas lost to Oklahoma 85-80 in Norman Jan. 23. The Jayhawks relinquished a late 10-point lead primarily due to poor free throw shooting. Two of the seven players that have played every game for Kansas shoot worse than 50 percent from the charity stripe, and another that only hits 65 percent of his free throws. Texas Tech used a 44-29 rebounding advantage to defeat the Jayhawks 85-73, Jan. 2, according to Matt Galloway of the Topeka Capital-Journal. Kansas ranks 223rd in free throw percentage (69.5) and 198th in rebound margin (+0.6). These are potentially significant issues.
No. 10 North Carolina 16- 5 Overall, 5-3 ACC (5th):
Coach Roy Williams has been incredibly successful at North Carolina since taking over prior to the 2003-04 season. In those 14 seasons, he has only missed the tournament once (2010), won three championships (2005, 2009, 2017), and possibly most incredible, never been ousted in the first round of the tournament. The Tar Heels top five scorers are all upperclassmen, but Williams has managed to work six lowerclassmen into the majority of their games. I was NOT feeling these guys before doing research, but I am now.
Unranked Kentucky 15-5 Overall, 5-3 SEC (3rd):
Kentucky may have dropped out of the AP Top 25, but they are ranked 17th in the RPI. The Wildcats AP rank plummeted due to losing three of their last six games. Kyle Tucker of SECCountry sees similarities between this Kentucky team, and the 2014 version that struggled through the year, barely making the tournament as a No. 8 seed. That 2014 team advanced to the Final Four, losing in the national championship game.
Unranked UCLA 13-7 Overall, 4-4 PAC-12 (5th):
The Bruins are ranked 63rd in the RPI. Without significant improvement, they will be hard pressed to make the tournament without winning the PAC-12 conference tournament. [Insert poop emoji here.]
Unranked Indiana 12-8 Overall, 5-3 Big Ten (5th):
Indiana is struggling to win games in a mediocre Big Ten, and got jack-hammered 85-57 by Michigan State Jan. 19. Hoosier fans might want to plan spring break around opening the NIT on the road again this year.
Preseason Dark Horse Candidates
No. 8 Xavier 18-3 Overall, 6-2 Big East (2nd): The Musketeers have two Top 25 victories, and carry a No. 4 ranking in the RPI. Xavier has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen three times and the Elite Eight once (last year) in their seven trips to the tournament under coach Chris Mack. The Musketeers have three seniors leading the team in scoring, and are ready to take at least one more step in March.
No. 9 Cincinnati 17-2 Overall, 6-0 ACC (1st): Cincinnati has won ten straight games, but Tom Groeschen of Cincinnati.com reports that coach Mick Cronin is not happy with the team's performance of late. The Bearcats play in a weak conference, and may not get the challenges they need throughout the season to prepare them for the tournament crucible.
Unranked Seton Hall 15-5 Overall, 4-3 Big East (5th): Seton Hall blew a ten-point, second-half lead at home in their 73-64 loss to Xavier, Jan. 23. Jerry Carino of the Asbury Park Press thinks a disappearing offense and a lack of depth were keys to the loss. You might be able to sneak by in March without depth, but you can't survive an offense that fails against top-notch opponents.
Unranked Texas Agricultural and Mechanical 13-7 Overall, 2-6 SEC (12th): Looks like Boozell might have missed on this preseason dark horse prediction.
Unranked Notre Dame 13-7 Overall, 3-4 ACC (12th): Notre Dame has a worse RPI than UCLA. Like the Bruins, they are in danger of not getting invited to the tournament at all.
Unranked Minnesota 14-9 Overall, 3-7 Big Ten (11th): The Golden Gophers are 3-7 in Big Ten conference play. That won't do.
So Who Are the Final Four?
No. 6 Michigan State, No. 7 West Virginia, No. 11 Arizona, and No. 12 Oklahoma could have been included in this conversation, but I am not going cover every team in late January. This blog post is just like the NCAA Tournament. Not every team makes it.
This is the time to start actually paying attention to the NCAA basketball regular season. We have a little more than seven weeks of regular season play before conference tournaments begin. Now is about the time it really gets interesting.
After this little review, I am feeling better prepared for the stretch run, and better able to answer my son's question.
I will say my early, non-binding Final Four prediction is Virginia, Purdue, North Carolina, and Xavier.
NOTE: Don't take this to your bookie. I have never done well in NCAA Tournament office pools.
Great piece! Two comments:
ReplyDelete1. Did you get a chance to watch Purdue last night v. Michigan? I was skeptical when you put them in your Final Four but I’m starting to believe.
2. Barbershop? We all know you go to a foo foo hair stylist.
A Tar Heel in the Shenandoah
I also was skeptical of Purdue. As a buddy of mine says, "Purdue is always good when the Big Ten sucks." My buddy is a Hoosier fan if you couldn't guess. OK, you got me. I went and got my hair done...nails too.
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